Dean’s Path

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great. 

As you likely know, I’m supporting Dean Phillips’ presidential run for the Democratic nomination.  I feel he would be a vastly superior alternative to Joe Biden in November and would actually defeat Trump rather than lose to him. 

Many have written off Dean’s ability to spring an upset on Joe Biden based on Dean’s 20% showing in New Hampshire, which was a shockingly impressive result given only 11 weeks of campaigning as a newcomer.  Dean also had an environment where all of the independents went to the Republican primary for what they thought was the Haley vs. Trump showdown. 

Can Dean still win?  Yes he can, and here’s how.    

South Carolina votes on February 3rd.  That is Joe Biden and James Clyburn country and Dean will probably get in the low single digits.  Anything he does there is gravy. 

The next Democratic primary is Michigan on February 27th.  This will be the big opportunity for Dean, and it’s a good one. 

Joe Biden is struggling in Michigan.  A recent poll there had him losing to Trump by 8 points, with another Democrat – Gretchen Whitmer – beating Trump by 4.  That’s a 12-point swing, and it hasn’t gone unnoticed.  Several Michigan Democratic candidates are saying to reporters that they are concerned about running with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. 

One community specifically angry at Joe Biden in Michigan is the Arab American community; they are a traditional Democratic population that is openly looking for a Biden alternative. 

Dean is a good fit for Michigan.  He plays hockey and will feel familiar.

The odds are high that Nikki Haley will be out by February 24th, which is the date of the South Carolina primary.  That could leave Dean Phillips as the last man standing between us and the rematch from hell.  Independents in Michigan can vote in either primary, and will all pile into the Democratic primary as the Republican primary will be over. 

Dean doesn’t need to necessarily win either – if he puts up a very significant number in Michigan, that could kick off a competitive dynamic and a geyser of support heading to Super Tuesday in March. 

Now, this is going to be very difficult, as Michigan is a big state.  Dean will need about $10 million in support to be able to communicate effectively statewide that there’s a real primary and Joe Biden has competition.  He will have to connect with voters there and build a movement in 4 weeks in a limited national press environment.  The odds are long and a lot has to go right. 

But his path is real.  In many ways, Michigan is the new New Hampshire, our big chance to shift the political future of this country. 

Dean went from 0 to 20% in 10 weeks.  Can he continue to grow in Michigan? 

A lot can happen in a month.  Let’s get to work.  

Go to Dean24.com to help and tell your friends in Michigan and South Carolina!

South Carolina and Michigan

Hello, I hope that your week is going well. 

It looks like Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee after New Hampshire – he managed to defeat Nikki Haley by double-digits in what should be her strongest state.  Now the primary heads to South Carolina where Trump is favored to win by 20+ points.  Nikki Haley will persist for a while, but a big loss in her home state could be a very daunting prospect.  The Republican primary in South Carolina takes place on February 24th. 

Dean Phillips got 20% in the Democratic primary, a stunningly impressive result given that he started his campaign only 11 weeks ago as a total unknown.  It would have been higher if more Independents had decided to vote Democratic - only 115,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary as opposed to 320,000 in the Republican primary.  Clearly, Independents thought the action was over on the Republican side, understandable given the bombardment of Trump and Haley advertising in the state. 

Still, 20% is a sign that many Democrats want a genuine choice and a competition, which is consistent with the polling that shows grave concerns about Biden.  Indeed, a new poll came out today showing Biden losing to Trump by 7 points nationally, adding to an ever-growing drumbeat of polls in Trump’s direction. 

Dean is still new to most Americans, and millions are hungry for a fresh new alternative to free us from the clash of the 80 year olds.  A number of people reached out to me about him after New Hampshire, so his profile continues to grow. 

We deserve a better contest than Biden vs. Trump II – in what world are those the two best people to lead this country in 2025?    

Now the Democratic primary calendar heads to South Carolina on February 3rd and then Michigan on February 27th.  South Carolina will be difficult for Dean to make inroads, but in true ‘run to the fire’ fashion Dean is heading there right now.  I am going down on Friday to join him in making the case.  I loved campaigning in South Carolina and it will be fun to get back. 

If you know people in South Carolina or Michigan, please let them know that Dean is on the ballot in both in February and to head to dean24.com to find a local event.  I’ll be coming to Michigan too, I have a lot of friends there.   

Can we avert the Trump vs. Biden rematch that none of us wants and that may well lead to catastrophe?  New Hampshire opened the door a crack, and now it’s up to South Carolina and Michigan to shove it open.  Let’s go.  

Democracy’s Last Stand

Hello from New Hampshire one day before the primary!  It’s no exaggeration to say that Tuesday could be democracy’s last stand. 

On the Republican side, Nikki Haley is trailing Donald Trump by 16 points.  I’ve spoken to a bunch of New Hampshire voters and I think that polling reflects the result on Tuesday.  There are Trump supporters everywhere I go and most of the Haley supporters I run into are non-Republicans considering crossing over just to vote. 
 
Donald Trump held a rally in Concord Friday and Tim Scott – whom Nikki Haley appointed to the Senate in South Carolina – endorsed him.  The Trump Train is alive and well in New Hampshire. 
 
In my view, the real action is on the Democratic side as Joe Biden is running against Dean Phillips who is climbing fast.  I endorsed Dean last week and have been campaigning for him in the Granite State.
 
I’ve had dozens of conversations with New Hampshire voters and you can see them waking up in real time.  “I saw a TV ad two days ago, and then Googled Dean yesterday, and now I’m thinking about voting for him.”  I heard that over and over.  The energy around Dean’s campaign is going up on an almost hourly basis. 
 
Among the comments I’ve heard:
 
“I’m voting for him.  We need something new.” 
 
“I like that he’s actually campaigning here in the State.” 
 
“I’m glad there’s a Democrat running who isn’t Joe Biden.” 
 
“I didn’t realize that voting in the Democratic primary was important.  I’m going to vote for Dean and my husband is too.” 
 
I’m not sure where that nets out in terms of the vote on Tuesday, but I do know the support for Dean is real and growing fast.  The crowds are getting bigger everywhere he goes. 

The Biden camp is already trying to downplay the results, saying Joe isn’t on the ballot and campaigning.  But they’re worried and they’re investing real resources.  They’ve sent a small army of officials, including a majority of the Cabinet to campaign in the state.  Their PAC has invested over $1.25 million on the Joe Biden write-in campaign and held over 20 get-out-the-vote events to try and make sure the President wins by a comfortable margin. 
 
Tuesday may be democracy’s last stand.  If the results go to script, both primaries could effectively be over.  New Hampshire is likely to be Nikki Haley’s strongest state, and if she loses it’s possible she drops out rather than lose in her home state February 3rd, as South Carolina actually favors Trump more than NH. 
 
And if Joe Biden draws 80%+ support, the Trump vs. Biden nightmare matchup is just about set, a matchup I fear Joe will lose, thus delivering us to Trump’s return in November.
 
But if Dean Phillips puts up a significant number, the American people could wake up to the fact that we CAN upgrade from the battle of the 80-year olds.  We can defeat Trump and turn the page to a new era of American politics. 
 
What kind of number does Dean need on Tuesday to kickoff a competitive primary?  No one is quite sure.  Dean says anything over 20% would be ‘magnificent’ given that he started with zero just 10 weeks ago.  SE Cupp says 30% would be ‘undeniable’ to journalists trying to measure the race.  42% would be historic, as that’s the vote Eugene McCarthy got in ’68 that forced LBJ to drop out days later. 
 
Barack Obama and Bill Clinton got 81% and 84% in their reelection bids in New Hampshire, so anything a lot lower than that is a bad look for Joe. 
 
If Dean gets above 20% that’s a very big sign that the Democratic electorate wants to have a real competition.  That’s why I’m here in New Hampshire.  Here are my asks for you: 
 
1. If you have any friends in New Hampshire, reach out to them and ask them to vote for Dean.  It’s our best hope and very important.  If you live near New Hampshire, come join us it’s a lot of fun!    
 
2. If you can, donate to Dean’s campaign at dean24.com.  The campaign needs every bit of support it can get.  Evelyn and I donated and hope that you do too. 
 
3. Tell all of your friends that a real race is on!  Amplify it far and wide.  Most people still haven’t heard about Dean and we need to change that. 
 
Will democracy deliver us a genuine choice on Tuesday that can invigorate our future?  I’ll be here in New Hampshire doing my best to make it happen along with Zach, Carly, Conrad, Tom, Jon, Shane, Julian, Trivette, Katie, Ali, Kait, Don and a lot of other awesome people.  Let’s do it.  The stakes are incredibly high. 

My Endorsement of Dean Phillips

I went to New Hampshire today to formally endorse Dean Phillips for President of the United States.  Here’s my speech from Hanover: 

Hello New Hampshire, it’s great to be back!  I went to high school here in the state and am going to speak at my alma mater tomorrow morning.  And of course I spent months here campaigning 4 years ago and had a wonderful time.  

The last 4 years have not been great.  This is a difficult and trying time.  Americans across the country are questioning whether our future will be brighter than our past. 

Looming over this is our presidential race.  Joe Biden has been an accomplished and substantial president.  I endorsed him and voted for him in 2020 and was even a campaign surrogate.  I’ve had the opportunity to meet and spend time with him and he is a good man, a true public servant and a great American. 

While he was the right candidate 4 years ago, he is not now. 

4 years ago, the Patriots were 12-4 and 1st in the AFC East.  2024 is not 2020. 

President Biden said in 2020 that he was going to be the bridge to the next generation.

Today that is exactly what we need.  Joe Biden is at 38% approval, an historic low and a full 10 points lower than Barack Obama was at the same time.  He is down by 4 in Wisconsin, down by 8 in Georgia, and down by 8 in Michigan, all swing states that Joe won in 2020.  He is down by 9 in North Carolina, virtually tied in Minnesota, I could go on and on.  

There are people who say that Joe Biden has been down before and that he can win again.  There are a number of reasons to think this optimism is misplaced.  First, the Biden campaign already spent $25 million on advertising in the swing states trying to bump up the President’s numbers by making people feel better about the economy.  The impact?  Zero.  People have made up their minds about this economy and this President, and an ad campaign will not fix this.    

Second, the President is 81.  All of the things that a candidate must do to be successful – travel, project energy, rally, meet voters, conduct interviews, call surrogates – all of them will be more difficult with an older candidate whose team will be concerned about him stumbling, literally or figuratively, at every turn.  The candidate matters!  It will be hard to reinvent grandpa. 

Third, this campaign is undermining the President’s greatest strength.  What is Joe’s superpower?  It is that he is a good man whom many of us believe will try to do the right thing for the country.  He is failing the George Washington test that he referenced recently in his Valley Forge speech – knowing when to pass the baton and walk away.  His spirit of service has become ego and stubbornness that are leading us toward disaster.  Sometimes, the highest form of leadership is stepping aside. 

Poll after poll shows that a generic Democrat defeats Trump by 6 or 8 points, the same polls that show Joe losing by 3 or 4.  Joe recently said that 50 Democrats could defeat Donald Trump.  He is right – and one of them, Dean Phillips, the only one to step up, is standing beside me right now. 

In a time of deep distress against Trump, the wrong plan is to run a terribly unpopular 81 year old incumbent who is down in polls both nationally and in the swing states that matter. 

Why hasn’t Joe gotten more competition?  Here’s why.  Joe Biden appointed Jaime Harrison of South Carolina the Chair of the DNC.  There are only 2 decisionmakers here – Joe Biden and the man he appointed.  Everyone else has been told to fall in line, and they are doing so even as it is leading us toward a 2nd disastrous, calamitous loss to Donald Trump. 

New Hampshire understands this self-dealing, as you are being punished right now by the DNC for holding a primary that you are required to hold by state law.  You don’t control the state legislature and couldn’t make the change even if you wanted to.  And this is a swing state!  The DNC is failing the voters of this state and failing the country by stifling any competition, including canceling the primaries altogether in Florida and North Carolina, another swing state.  They talk about championing democracy while crushing it just when we need it most. 

For Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, JB Pritzker and other prominent Democrats, you are missing your moment.  The country needs you now, not in 2028.  If Trump wins in November, what will be left for us in 2028?  What matters more, your standing in the party or your country?  We all know you want to run for President, and your time is right now.  In 2028, you’ll also have Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore to contend with, and they won’t have missed their moment. 

In this time of need, only one man decided to place his country over his political career, put his own conviction above the chattering class, and that is the man I am proud to endorse as the next President of the United States, 3-term Congressman from Minnesota Dean Phillips!!! 

Dean has the character, vision and values to lead us to a new era in America. 

Dean has led a successful business, building Talenti Gelato into a national brand.  

After Trump won, Dean felt he had to do more for his two daughters and the country.  He ran for Congress and flipped a red-leaning district that hadn’t been represented by a Democrat in over fifty years.  No one thought he had a chance, but he ran a positive campaign with the slogan, “Everyone’s invited.”  His last race he won by double-digits and he’s now in his third term.  Dean has never lost a race. 

I met Dean when he was in Congress two years ago at a campaign finance reform event where he despaired that all of his colleagues spent thousands of hours a week dialing for dollars.  He was the only member who didn’t, figuring he was actually there to try to get things done.  As you can imagine, I liked him immediately – imagine a member of Congress who doesn’t like calling donors and was willing to say so.

Dean is running for President not because it somehow serves his interests, but because it is the right thing to do.  He was alarmed that we were sleepwalking toward disaster and called other leading Democrats asking them to run.  While people agreed with him in private, in public they toed the party line.  They put their careers ahead of the country.  Only when no one else stepped up did Dean take on the challenge himself.  He thought of his father who died in Vietnam in a helicopter crash serving our country.  What would he do?  Dean has now been accused of all sorts of things because that’s the politics of today, but his decision to run for President is among the most courageous acts I have seen in American life.  His father would be proud. 

Dean is all in.  You know one reason why members of Congress generally make terrible presidential candidates?  It’s because when the going gets tough they often double back to seek re-election to their current seat.  Not Dean.  He gave up a safe Congressional seat to try and save his country, giving up a promising career in party leadership out of duty.  That is character, the kind of character that so many of our leaders today lack.  If we had more people in Washington willing to upend their careers like Dean, we would be a much stronger country.     

Dean has a compelling vision and motivation – to make America more affordable for working families.  He knows that healthcare costs are the number one cause of bankruptcy in America – that’s why he signed a Medicare for All bill that would finally ensure that all Americans have access to quality care.  He wants to have a baby bond of $1,000 for every child born in America that would grow to be significant by the time that child is 18.  He wants to bring back the enhanced child tax credit that lifted millions of American families out of poverty.  He wants to ease our housing crisis by building 7 million new housing units around the country.  He wants to make college and vocational school alike cost-free so young people have a better shot at a brighter future. 

These are the kind of goals that Americans of all parties and backgrounds can get excited about. 

Dean will govern as a different kind of President who puts leadership ahead of the letter next to your name.  Dean will recruit the best people to his administration, from both within and outside of the party and government.  It is impossible to reunite and repair our country while we are divided into two warring factions for the amusement of the media and the political industrial complex.  Dean will literally repair America with the most non-partisan bipartisan Cabinet anyone has ever seen. 

Dean is not just for campaign finance reform but for open primaries, ranked choice voting and term limits.  No one knows how dark the machinery is more than Dean.  He may not seem like it because he’s such a congenial guy, but Dean has the potential to be the most transformative leader we have seen in our lifetimes.  

I ran for President and know that the people of this country are much better than the leadership we are getting, that we are united in much more than the parties and the partisan media would have you believe.    

To those on the left who are progressive, Dean is our best chance to pass universal healthcare, get baby bonds, make housing more affordable and alleviate meaningless suffering for millions of Americans.    

To Democrats, Dean is our best chance to defeat Donald Trump once and for all and ensure that democracy persists and prevails. 

To Independents, Dean is our best chance to put the people’s interests above the parties that separate and divide us and return government to the people.  

To moderate Republicans, Dean is the 2nd most bipartisan member of Congress and will include you in the future as we move past Trump. 

To journalists and influencers, wouldn’t you rather cover a real primary process rather than slump into the battle of the 80-year olds?  Dean’s victory could be one of the greatest stories of this era. 

To my friend Marianne Williamson, you have run a noble, courageous campaign and have articulated many of the things that Americans should expect and deserve.  I ask you to join us in challenging the true enemy.  The true enemy is the political establishment that does not care about our families and communities and a media cabal that will suppress or demonize those who want change on behalf of the people of this country.  Marianne, Dean is our best chance to change things.  I am looking forward to serving in his administration and I would love for you to join us. 

For the voters of New Hampshire, I’ve met thousands of you over the years and I know how seriously you take the trust of this country to pick a President.  What does your heart tell you is the right thing to do?  Are we going to careen toward disaster, or will you save us and move the country forward in a new and better direction?  Will we settle for politics as usual or will we try for something better?  If you spend time with Dean, you will see that he has the makings of a tremendous President. 

Dean is a sane, smart, pragmatic, 54-year old leader who wants to bring the country back together and improve our lives.  He is unbeholden to the special interests who dominate our politics.  He is the man for this moment.  He is what most Americans – certainly most Independents who will decide our elections – want in a candidate.  Most of all, he will win.

What do you think New Hampshire – do you want to help Dean win?   

Me too.  I’m proud to introduce the next President of the United States, Dean Phillips!  

Shifting Parties

Hello, I hope things are going well for you this holiday weekend!  MLK Day is a special day for so many of us as he died combating the three great evils of racism, poverty and war. 

The Iowa Republican Primary takes place today – barring something shocking Trump is expected to prevail.  And tonight will likely be the end of the line for Ron DeSantis, who has gone all in on Iowa. 

Nikki Haley will benefit from Chris Christie’s withdrawal in New Hampshire but still faces steep odds given Trump’s significant lead nationwide and in Nikki’s home state of South Carolina.   

What would a Trump nomination mean in ’24?  This week on the podcast I interview Patrick Ruffini, a pollster who wrote the recent book “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.”  Patrick makes two major arguments.  First, he says that the main dividing line between the parties now is not class - it’s education.  About 64% of the electorate are non-college graduates, and the Republican Party increasingly dominates with this group. 

In the old days, the Democratic Party did great among white, blue-collar workers.  Today, not so much.

This also helps explain why Trump is so strong in the Republican primary as non-college voters vastly prefer him over Haley and others.  

The second realignment is that nonwhite working-class voters are increasingly leaving the Democratic Party and voting Republican, “from the Cuban Americans of Little Havana, to the Hispanic voters of the Rio Grande Valley, to Vietnamese immigrants in Orange County, California.”  This overlaps with Patrick’s education thesis, as there are plenty of non-college educated non-white voters who aren’t activated by the current Democratic Party’s emphasis on social issues. 

Patrick’s analysis is a sobering wake up call to those who think that Biden is going to prevail over Trump because of a Democratic advantage among voters.  Patrick observes, “Going into 2024 . . . it is weak support for an octogenarian Biden among Black and Hispanic voters, especially younger voters, that accounts for most of Trump’s improved standing in the polls.”  The traditional Democratic coalition is fragmenting, shedding non-college voters in every group.  The 2024 election is going to be determined by whether a critical mass of non-college educated blue collar workers in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina feel well-served by the status quo or prefer their memories of the economy of 2019. 

If Trump wins the Republican nomination – which he could in the next 6 weeks – he would be the favorite against Joe Biden.  The best way out is to put forward a new Democratic nominee that is unburdened by incumbency and centered on economically populist messaging – someone like Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota. 

 Moving forward, the answer is a popular movement designed to address inequities that are shared by Americans at every education level.  “A college diploma, the most basic prerequisite for working in politics and the news media, was the very thing that blinded the elite to Trump’s appeal and hobbled those who wished to stop him,” Patrick writes. The Democratic Party didn’t understand this in 2016 – and it’s running out of time in 2024. 

For my interview of Patrick on his book click here.  To check out Forward, click here.  To help out the Dean Phillips campaign click here – New Hampshire votes next week on Jan. 23rd! 

No Time Like the Present

Photo: Ching Juhl

Hello, hope that you are doing great for the holiday weekend! 

I turn 49 today.  I am celebrating with friends and family over the long weekend. 

49 feels not old, but not young either.  I’ve been young my entire life.  I skipped kindergarten so I was always young for my grade.  I ran for President at 44 and turned 45 just as the voting started. 

When I turned 30 I did some youthful things – like skydiving with buddies.  I hated my birthdays as a kid as I didn’t have many friends; as an adult I’ve kind of made it a point to do something enjoyable. 

Now, I’m a bit less young.  I visited my parents over the holidays – my father is 83 and my mother in her mid-70s.  I’m trying to appreciate these golden years while they are still healthy and vital and my kids are old enough to form memories. 

An older friend of mine told me that I’ll be happier and more productive in the next 10 years than I have ever been in my life.  Is he right?  I’m proud of the way I’ve lived my life.  I built a business that created opportunities for people.  I started a non-profit that does great work to this day.  I helped mainstream the idea of Universal Basic Income that will help us alleviate poverty.  I pushed for cash relief.  I’ve written a few books that people tell me impacted them.  I’m helping make the case for political reform with Forward. 

And of course, I’ve got two wonderful children and a loving family who are, generally speaking, thriving. 

I’ve had incredible experiences, the kind of things that I never could have imagined growing up.  I’ll confess that there are times when I have my doubts about whether my best days are ahead of me.  Some people do their best work at a particular time of life.  There’s no shame in that. 

I have stood in front of thousands of people at a campaign rally and helped channel their – our – hopes for a brighter future.  I still have those hopes.  I hope you still have them too. 

When people ask me whether I’m running for President again, I respond, “Apparently I’ve got 40 more years” which always gets a laugh.  But that’s not actually the way I think.  I’m more, “How can I effect maximum change for people that will improve their lives?”  I want to attack every day with that energy.

And right now, I have a very clear answer – it’s to help Dean Phillips become President.  

I see Dean as our best chance to improve our trajectory as a nation.  He’s for universal healthcare, baby bonds, ranked choice voting and more.  He’s raised $1 million since declaring and could use our help.  I’m heading to New Hampshire next week for the campaign – Dean is at 26% in New Hampshire and rising fast! 

If you’d like to help me celebrate my birthday, please donate to the Dean Phillips campaign or, if that’s not your speed, the Forward Party or Humanity Forward. 

And please get the word out about Dean.  Call your friends in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan.  He’s the me of this cycle, and if he wins, we’ll be there at the table.  And then, our best days really could be ahead of us.  That would absolutely make my birthday wish come true.  

How Things Grow

Hello and Happy New Year!

A new poll has Dean Phillips at 21% in New Hampshire - he has a chance to make history on January 23rd! I see Dean as our best chance to put America on a better track.

I spoke at USC a few months ago when a student asked me something important: “Outside of political reform, how can we best bring about a human-centered economy that works for people in the age of AI?”

I responded, “Help a non-profit grow, as they are based on more human-centered goals and values.”

My answer was fine as far as it went. But at present non-profits are structurally capped in terms of their growth and impact due to a number of factors.

This is a subject Dan Pallotta knows all too well. Dan helped start AIDS Rides and Breast Cancer 3-Day Walks, which raised over $500 million for their respective causes. He then became passionate about the fact that non-profits are hamstrung in their ability to truly address our problems. “Why has poverty stayed at essentially the same level for decades?” Dan asks. He gave a TED Talk on this topic and a documentary about Dan’s work and ideas, “Uncharitable,” is now streaming.

So, why can’t non-profits grow to solve our biggest problems? First, charities pay less. As Dan describes, “If you want to sell video games and make $50 million go for it, but if you want to cure malaria we have a big problem with you making $500,000. The median Stanford MBA makes $400,000 a year . . . so it’s cheaper for the MBA to donate $100,000 to charity and get a tax break, become a philanthropist and sit on the board and boss around the head of the charity and have a lifetime of prosperity and accolades than to actually run the nonprofit.”

The second area is advertising and marketing. “It’s fine for companies to spend to the moon on marketing, but we don’t like our donations spent on advertising. It’s one reason why the non-profit sector has been stuck at 2% of GDP and unable to wrestle away any market share.”

The third area is taking risks. “Disney can make a $200 million movie that flops and no one calls the attorney general. If you do a $1 million fundraiser for the poor and it doesn’t bring in 75% return in the first 12 months your character gets called into question. If you can’t take risks, you can’t grow and you can’t innovate.”

The fourth area is time. “For-profit companies like Amazon can invest in a giant project for 10 years in a bet on scale that pays off later. In philanthropy if you tried to build something at scale for 6 years and nothing went to the needy during that time, someone would have lost their job 5 years ago.”

The fifth area is capital. “The for-profit sector can pay people profits to attract capital for their new ideas, but the non-profit sector is starved for growth and idea capital.”

So in summary, you can’t pay as much, you can’t advertise, you can’t take risks, you don’t have the same amount of time, and you don’t have a stock market to fund it even if you find something promising. Says Dan, “From 1970 – 2009, 144 non-profits grew to over $50 million in revenue per year. The number of for-profit companies that grew to that level was 46,136. The problems are at scale but our non-profits can’t keep up.”

I spent 6 years running a non-profit that I founded in 2011 before running for President. People would say, “Non-profits run on two things: passion and money.” Too often we put too much weight on the first and expect people to make do with less or even take permanent vows of poverty in order to do good work.

Dan’s fundamental argument is that we need to rethink the concept of overhead for non-profits if it is funding growth. What’s better, a bake sale that spends 5% on expenses to raise $71 and helps 1 person or a hunger charity that spends 40% on growth to raise $71 million and helps 1 million people? If your goal is to actually solve the real problems, the answer is obvious.

What would a human-centered economy look like? First, it would require a government that channels resources more effectively to improve people’s lives. And second, it would include a thriving non-profit sector that solves problems and rewards people doing the work.

For my interview of Dan click here and for the documentary click here. To reform the political system with Forward click here. For our best shot to change things this cycle, check out the Dean Phillips campaign, which could give rise to a more human-centered economy starting with universal healthcare. He’s at 21% in New Hampshire and rising fast - and the vote is in 2 weeks!

21%

Happy New Year!  

A new poll came out on Friday that had Dean Phillips up to 21% in New Hampshire in the Democratic primary.  Joe Biden was at 58% and Marianne Williamson at 5%.  

This is a major piece of news.  Dean Phillips declared just two months ago. To go from 0 to 21% in 2 months is stunning.  

This is particularly true as the awareness of Dean in New Hampshire remains low - his name ID is below 50% in the state.  Most voters still haven’t tuned in.  Imagine if most people realized that there was an appealing option outside of Biden that also matches up better against Trump? 

Factor in the fact that Joe Biden will be a write-in and the picture is clear - Dean Phillips can win in New Hampshire on January 23rd.  This would be a political earthquake.  

Now, he still has to grow in the next two weeks.  An ad campaign would help - I’d urge you to donate today so that his campaign can get the word out in New Hampshire.  

But if he gets the resources, Dean can win. A new positive 54-year old nominee is what most Americans want.  

Can the Democrats succeed in upgrading from their unpopular 81-year old incumbent in time?  We are going to find out a lot on January 23rd in New Hampshire.  

I have the feeling that Dean is going to keep on climbing past 21% - let’s help him get there, for all of our sakes.  

2024

Happy New Year!  2024 is going to be a huge year. 
 
Huge good, or not-so-good?  This week on the podcast I welcome back old friend Zach Graumann to make some predictions for the New Year. 
 
On the economic front, I predict that the mild recession that we avoided in 2023 will come to pass in 2024.  There are signs of consumer weakness in credit card and auto loan delinquencies and failure to repay student loan debt among other early indicators, and the colossal imbalances in commercial real estate have yet to be reckoned with.  The locked up residential real estate market won’t help.  Startups are in survival mode and cash is scarce.  At some point, the negative feelings about the economy will spill into behavior, and I think that hits in ’24. 
 
There are times to take risks and times to pull back.  I think this year is the latter in terms of the economy. 
 
Of course, any downturn makes the political climate rockier for an incumbent.  Zach and I make the bold prediction that Joe Biden won’t be the Democratic nominee.  This is self-serving as Zach is working on the Dean Phillips campaign, but Joe Biden’s polling collapse and advanced age have stirred unease and questions that will only heat up.  Will an alternative emerge from within the Democratic Party?  New Hampshire votes on January 23rd and will be the first big indication whether we are in for a coronation or a competition.  We, and most Americans, would prefer the latter. 
 
I also predict that third party candidates – RFK Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, Joe Manchin?? – will get their highest share of the national vote since 1992, when Ross Perot got 18.9%. With 75% of Americans thinking we are on the wrong track and 65% despairing about the two-party system, a lot of people will be willing to vote differently this year. 
 
(In case you’re wondering what Forward is up to in ’24, we will be supporting local candidates in swing states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina to boost the turnout for those who aren’t extremists, perhaps helping the country avoid an authoritarian returning to the White House.  Good plan!)
 
Zach and I both believe that 2024 is the year that AI hits your workplace in earnest, as it becomes part of the way organizations function.  Last year firms hired AI consultants.  This year they start implementing.  That will have mixed effects to say the least.  I talked to a CIO who said that AI is already replacing coders offshore, and is accelerating and assisting unskilled coders making them more productive.  On the other hand, some experienced coders have become less relevant.  So some people are winning and some are losing.  This will play out differently in different orgs, but it’s coming to a workplace near you.    
 
We also think that 2024 will be the AI election cycle, with deepfake videos and audio recordings hitting down the stretch just as voting starts.  You might want to turn away from your social media feed starting in October or so, as the incentives to inflame or misinform voters will be sky-high and the information environment with be toxic and out-of-control.  Other countries have started seeing this, and we will too. 
 
These are strange and challenging times – but there will be positive opportunities.  One of them is to turn the page by getting behind a 54-year old upstart presidential candidate challenging the 81-year old unpopular incumbent; imagine having a young dynamic President who doesn’t owe the machine anything in power.  That’s how I’d like the year to end.  It hinges on the voters of New Hampshire making their voices heard on January 23rd.

For my convo with Zach about the year ahead, click here.  To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here – he may be our best hope for ’24.  To join Forward in boosting positive local candidates, click here. 

Happy Holidays!!

Hello and Happy Holidays to you and yours!  I hope that you are celebrating with friends and family.  

I remember as a kid being thrilled the first time I saw holiday lights go up in the neighborhood.  My parents were often the ones hosting our relatives in our house so I associate this time of year with having lots of family members around.  Now as a Dad I try to do the same thing though Evelyn and I aren’t the greatest hosts, and because our parents are on the older side now, we often go to them. 

I’m at an age now when many of my friends’ parents are having health problems.  It’s made me eager to spend as much time with my folks as we can.  I try to convey to Christopher and Damian everything that their grandparents went through as immigrants to this country, and how grateful they should be.  They definitely don’t get that right now because they’re kids – but I hope it sinks in down the road.

I also try to tell our boys – when they fight – that they should appreciate each other, because they will always have each other.  They will always be brothers.  And they should feel lucky that they have each other.  Of course they don’t really get that now either.  Maybe later they will. 

For a lot of folks in the world, it’s been a difficult year.  I spend a lot of my time trying to improve things, and I confess that sometimes it feels like the ground is muddy beneath my feet and I’m walking uphill. 

But I’m surrounded by incredible people who are trying to solve problems and make life better for those around them.  It’s invigorating getting to do work you care about every day.  

Thank you for making that possible for me. 

In many ways, that’s what I think the Holidays are about - appreciating the people in our lives and all that we have to be grateful for here and now.  And from that gratitude, good things will grow. 

Happy Holidays from our family to yours!  Let the people in your life know how much they mean to you. 🙂

- Andrew, Evelyn, Christopher and Damian

37%

Hello, I hope that your Holiday Season is off to a great start! 
 
I was on CNN last week talking about the collapsing support for President Biden in the recent polls.  The numbers are stunning. 
 
Biden’s approval rating has plummeted to 37% in several recent polls.  His approval rating is lower than any other President at this point in history.  And everyone else even close to him went on to lose. 

Credit:  Tom Leung / Nerds for Humanity 

Bloomberg has Biden down 10 points to Trump in Michigan, a key swing state that Biden won in 2020.  The same poll has Biden’s deficit at 5 points in Georgia, another key swing state.  A poll in Minnesota has the result within the margin of error; this is a state that Joe Biden won by 7 points in 2020 and isn’t even considered a swing state.  If Joe Biden has to spend money and energy shoring up a place like Minnesota, that’s a disaster.  Pew has Joe Biden’s approval rating nationwide at a shocking 33%.

2 months ago, you would say, “Okay, this is going to be a close election,  maybe 50-50.”  Now, it is very difficult to look at these numbers and say anything other than, if the election were to be held tomorrow, Trump would be the prohibitive favorite to win.  Trump is also rolling through the Republican primary. 
 
So, is a turnaround for Joe Biden in the offing?  There are a number of reasons that suggest it won’t be. 
 
First, the trend right now is clearly negative.  Biden’s numbers are slumping and disintegrating in real time.  People are increasingly fed up. 
 
Second, the Biden campaign spent $25 million on an advertising campaign intended to buck up his numbers in the swing states.  The effect?  Zero.  This is not a situation that an advertising campaign can fix. 
 
Third, the President is 81 years old.  I am regularly seeing videos of his latest verbal stumbles in my social media feed despite not looking for them.  It is very difficult to reinvent grandpa.  You can’t just send him out to do some friendly interviews and hope people are reminded of why they liked him.  He’s different in 2024 than he is in 2020. 
 
Fourth, on some level, voters believe Joe Biden is making a selfish decision by running again and are holding it against him.  His strength is that he’s a good man and loves this country.  But his decision to run again seems to be putting his own ego ahead of the country’s interests, particularly in light of his recent statement that “There are 50 Democrats who could defeat Trump.” 
 
He’s right.  This is the opposite of his campaign in 2020, when he said essentially, “I’m the only one who can defeat Trump.” 
 
Now, 4 years later, he is probably the weakest candidate.  He’s gone from being the best candidate against Trump to the worst. 
 
Last week I publicly asked Joe Biden to step aside and let a real primary play out.  In my view, conscientious Americans who don’t want a Trump return should be supporting Dean Phillips, the only elected official who has decided to run against Biden for the sake of the country.  The best hope to defeat Trump is to field the strongest possible nominee. 
 
Indeed, the same polls that have Joe losing to Trump by several points have a generic Democrat defeating Trump by 8 points.  Imagine if Trump were running against a sane, positive 54-year old Democrat like Dean; all of a sudden voters would rejoice that they had a genuine choice.  It would feel refreshing, particularly against a candidate like Trump.    
 
New Hampshire votes on January 23rd – I believe that if they know they have an option in Dean Phillips, they will jump on it.  Zach Graumann, who most of you know as my campaign manager, has already joined Dean’s campaign.  It’s going to be a busy month.  And a ton is riding on waking voters up to a better option than sleepwalking into disaster. 
 
To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here.  To help cure our political system check out Forward – we are having a big year-end online event tonight.    

Dean Phillips ‘24

Hello, I hope that your holidays are going great. 
 
This week on the podcast I interview Dean Phillips, Democratic candidate for President.  I’m excited about his campaign for a few reasons.

First, I think that he dramatically improves the chances of not having Donald Trump win in ‘24.  Joe Biden’s approval ratings are now down to 37% (!!!) and he is losing to Trump in most of the swing states.  The Democrats should be furiously searching for a candidate who is better situated to defeat Trump.  Someone like, say, a 54-year old moderate Congressman from Minnesota who won a red-leaning district 3 times. 
 
“People didn’t think that I could win that first race, but I got out and ran a positive campaign.  Not only did we win but my margin of victory went up in each race.” 
 
Dean made headlines as a member of Congress when he stated what most people believe: that Joe Biden should make way for another candidate.  “When people say one thing in private and another thing in public, it’s dangerous.  The numbers are clear that President Biden isn’t well-positioned against Trump, but no one was willing to say it when a camera was on them even as they were saying it to each other every day.” 
 
“I went out and asked other people to run.  When no one else was willing to do it, I decided I couldn’t stand by when the country is at such a pivotal point.  I told my daughters I was going to do everything I could against Trump, and I’m going to do just that.” 
 
What would Dean do as President?  “First, I’m going to be a leader for all Americans.  I’m going to have a team of rivals in my Cabinet.  Good ideas come from anywhere, not just from one party.  We need to repair America.  I’m going to have a youth Cabinet from all 50 states as well.  Young people need more voice.” 
 
“Second, everywhere I go Americans are struggling.  Housing costs are too high and there’s a national shortage.  We should build 7 million new homes immediately. We need a national healthcare system so that no one is going bankrupt from going sick.  I will make sure we have a universal healthcare system.  We have to reduce the cost of education and the debt load for millions of Americans.  I’m also for piloting UBI because I think AI is going to disrupt the jobs and livelihoods of a lot of Americans.  I’m going to make America affordable for people and families.” 
 
Dean and I met at a campaign finance reform event.  “Our system is corruptive.  I’m for open primaries, ranked choice voting and publicly financing elections.  I’m for term limits.  My colleagues in Congress spend thousands of hours a week dialing for dollars.  If everyone you talk to is rich, you lose touch with how most Americans live, where most are living paycheck to paycheck and 40% can’t afford a $400 bill.” 
 
Can Dean win?  I think he can because of the way the calendar is laid out.  New Hampshire votes on January 23rd, and it’s not a state that Joe Biden has ever done well in, even before he demoted them for South Carolina.  “When we win New Hampshire, imagine the headlines on January 24th.  All of a sudden a ton of people will be paying attention.”  Dean is already at 15% in New Hampshire and climbing.  The more people see of him, the better he’s going to do. 
 
The threshold issue is whether he becomes widely known enough fast enough.  If he does, I think he will win, as a majority of Democrats are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with Joe Biden as the 81-year old incumbent.  Voters will have their say starting on January 23rd.  
 
Dean is determined.  “My Dad died for this country in Vietnam, and I think about it all the time.  The least I can do is tell the truth and do my best on this campaign.”  
 
To hear my interview with Dean, click here.  To check out his campaign, click here.  I’ve donated to Dean and I hope you consider doing so as well.  And tell your friends!  It may not seem like it, but Dean could be the most truly transformative political figure in a generation.  

Andy Kim

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great. 

This week I had the opportunity to spend time with Andy Kim, who is running to be the next U.S. Senator from the Garden State.  I’ve known Andy for years; he’s a man of integrity.    

“I didn’t know I was going to run for the Senate.  But I heard Bob Menendez say, ‘I’m not going anywhere’ and it offended me.  It’s not his job.  It’s the people’s job.  And I knew I had to run to get Bob out and give the people a real choice.”

Since Andy declared, people have been rallying to his side.  More than 80% of New Jersey voters regard their political leadership as corrupt.  But they sense in Andy the opposite; an earnest public servant who spent nearly a decade in the State department before running for Congress and winning in a red-leaning district on the Jersey Shore. 

“No one thought I could win” that first Congressional race, Andy relates.  “I just got out there and talked to voters and wound up winning a very tight race.  4 years later I won by double digits.”  It turns out that most people just want a workhorse legislator working for the people. 

Now, he’s taking on an even bigger challenge running statewide.  “I’ve been criss-crossing New Jersey introducing myself to voters who don’t know me as well.  The energy has been electric everywhere I have gone.  People are tired and want a new generation of leaders who they actually believe are in it for the right reasons.  We deserve better leadership.  How is it that in a country of 330 million people we can’t find 535 people to fill these jobs who aren’t corrupt or self-serving?” 

Andy is motivated by his young family.  “My parents immigrated here 50 years ago for a better life.  Now are we going to leave a better life for our kids?  That’s what drives me.  The hardest part of doing this job is spending time away from my kids.  But I decided that I may not be the ‘tuck my kids in every night Dad,’ I’m going to be the ‘I did everything I could to fight for their future’ Dad.” 

A dedicated public servant like Andy would certainly be a dramatic turn from Bob Menendez, who has become an emblem of insider corruption.  Andy is as upright as it gets.  His campaign is a tremendous opportunity to turn the page on politics as usual in New Jersey.

To check out Andy Kim’s campaign go to https://andykim.com.  He’ll make a phenomenal Senator.  Let’s help him win.    

The Republican Field

Hello, I hope the holidays are going well for you and yours! 

The 4th Republican Debate is this week, which seems like a good time to revisit the Republican Field. 

The three candidates who will be onstage this week are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy.  Chris Christie seems on track to miss this debate.    

Nikki Haley has a ton of momentum – a recent town hall in South Carolina became a rally with overflow crowds.  Donors are coming her way.  Her campaign just reserved $10 million in television ads, the campaign’s first, in the early states.  The Koch brothers just endorsed her which should mean tens of millions of dollars in PAC support as well as more boots on the ground. 

The question is can she rise up to defeat Trump, who is still the prohibitive favorite?  Trump is polling at between 42 – 45% in the early states, and 60% nationally with Republicans. 

Here was always the worst nightmare – Trump has 40 – 50% of the Republican electorate while 4 other candidates break up the rest, leaving Trump to roll while the other candidates jockey to be his alternative and lose down the stretch.  It’s what happened in 2016 with Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. 

Will it happen again in 2024?  It looks like it.  Let’s take the remaining candidates in turn. 

Ron DeSantis has gone all in on Iowa.  If he does poorly there – anything worse than a strong 2nd place is a wrap - he will suspend his campaign.  But he’s certainly not getting out before Iowa votes. 

Vivek Ramaswamy has already committed $12 million in ad buys to both Iowa and New Hampshire.  That’s not something you do if you’re not going to be at the polls.  

Chris Christie has bet everything on New Hampshire. 

The best case for Nikki Haley is that Chris Christie drops out and endorses her, DeSantis drops out after Iowa and Ramaswamy drops out after New Hampshire.  Still, their presence will make it highly unlikely that she wins either of those states.  The odds are high that Trump will win both Iowa and New Hampshire, which will bring it down to South Carolina. 

South Carolina is a must-win state for Nikki Haley, as she was the popular governor there.  Current polling has Trump at 50% in South Carolina to 20% for Nikki Haley. 

Can Nikki Haley consolidate all other non-Trump voters in South Carolina AND eat into Trump’s base?  That’s an awfully tall order.  A lot of DeSantis or Ramaswamy fans will default to Trump. 

Is it good enough for Nikki Haley to finish a strong second in her home state, after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire?  Probably not. 

Nikki Haley has momentum and would make a very formidable opponent against Joe Biden in the general election; indeed I think she’d be a heavy favorite against Joe.  I believe contributing to Nikki Haley and urging people to vote for her is a fine idea for those of us who think Trump is a near-existential threat to American democracy.  

But unless something dramatic happens, expect Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee in 2024.  

Want to upgrade the Biden–Trump rematch?  In my opinion, the best chance to do so is Dean Phillips on the Democratic side, who is already at 10-15% in New Hampshire and rising fast.  Check out Dean and his campaign here.    

Healing

Hello, I hope you had a wonderful holiday with friends and family!  Evelyn and I ate too much. 
 
The holidays are a joyous time but also a difficult time for many Americans.  How do we make people happier and more mentally healthy?  That’s the subject of Thomas Insel’s book “Healing: Our Path From Mental Illness to Mental Health.”  Tom would know as the former director of the National Institute of Mental Health, a billion-dollar federal agency that funds mental health research.  Tom is also an advisor to the Good Life Movement, a public movement of action for mental health. 

Tom’s book is born of hard-won experience.  He recalls speaking to an audience about mental health research when an impassioned parent said, “You really don’t get it.  My 23-year old son has schizophrenia.  He has been hospitalized five times . . . and now he is homeless.  Our house is on fire and you are talking about the chemistry of the paint.”  Tom does get it.  His son had struggles with ADHD and his daughter with anorexia.  There is now broad acknowledgment that America has a mental health crisis on its hands, whether it’s anxiety and depression or deaths of despair.  Indeed, according to Tom 60% of mental illness goes untreated.
 
“Our current approach is a disaster on many fronts.  Not only is mental health care delivered ineffectively, but it is mostly accessed during a crisis and strategically focused only on relieving symptoms and not on helping people recover,” Tom writes. 
 
Tom discusses the closing of 95% of public hospital beds for the mentally ill coupled with the dramatic increase of prisons over the last 50 years.  As he puts it painfully, “America has invested in incarceration instead of rehabilitation” to the point that “hospitals have become prisons and prisons have become hospitals.”
 
So what works?  One thing with demonstrated effectiveness is Coordinated Specialty Care, which is when family education and support, case management, psychotherapy, medication management and work or education support are all coordinated together when someone has their first psychotic episode.  Too often, different parts of someone’s life don’t talk to each other, particularly if people stigmatize treatment. 
 
Tom sees a role for technology, but “technology will not and cannot replace boots on the ground.  We will need clinical experts, we will need hospitals and crisis teams, and we will need people who can listen when someone has turned off their phone or unplugged from social media . . .[we need] both high tech and high touch.” 
 
Tom diagnoses the failures of the marketplace – that we have a ‘sick-care’ system not a healthcare system that only prioritizes well-being after the fact.  Tom follows the numbers that show that our problems are tied together – that mental health is tied to our housing crisis, our poverty crisis and increasing disparities.  “This growing outcome gap is related to the growing income gap.” 
 
So what is the path forward?  Tom writes, “My hope for our country, after all I have seen over forty-five years in the field, is to redefine mental health care to include recovery and prevention.”  He argues for measuring better outcomes and reimbursing for mental health care and recovery the same way we do for physical injury. 
 
It’s encouraging to see someone from the highest levels of government acknowledge the need for fundamental new approaches.  “Recovery is more than a reduction in symptoms:  it is the return to a full and meaningful life . . . It’s the three Ps.  It’s people, place and purpose.”  We need more of these for more people, both before and after they struggle. 
 
For my interview with Tom about his book, click here.  For the Good Life Movement click here.  To improve our politics and meet some awesome people in your community, check out Forward here.  For a presidential candidate who wants universal healthcare, check out Dean Phillips here.  

A Broken Congress

Great news – the federal government won’t run out of money this week!  Rejoice! 
 
That is literally what qualifies as tremendous news out of Congress today.  Speaker Michael Johnson has managed to squeeze a funding resolution through his narrow to nonexistent majority with the help of a host of Democrats.  The same handful of conservatives who ousted Kevin McCarthy are now plotting their revenge. 
 
Keep in mind that this resolution doesn’t last long – it merely kicks the can down the road until January when different spending levels are to be hashed out. 
 
As a sign of the times, former speaker Kevin McCarthy elbowed Tim Burchett, one of his ousters, in the hallways of Congress this week.  I guess he’s not over it.    
 
If you understood what is happening – or not happening - in Congress today you’d be appalled.  There’s a rule called the Hastert Rule that says nothing gets brought to the floor unless a majority of the majority party supports it.  That means that every member of the minority party can’t bring meaningful bills to the floor.  One member said to me, “If you’re in the minority party and don’t have an important committee assignment, you might as well be a piece of furniture.” 
 
The days of legislators from both parties wrangling a bipartisan agreement are long gone.  Instead, members are often presented with legislation with minutes or hours to review it before being asked to vote for it – with the expectation that of course they won’t vote for it.  Worse yet, that even happens to majority members sometimes, where they too will be asked to vote for laws they’ve barely had time to review, and the expectation is that they’ll sign off.   
 
The parties are more concerned with scoring points on each other than delivering good policy.  2 members wrote, “Why is our status as members of different political parties seemingly more potent than our shared love for America, our many areas of agreement, and our shared responsibility to solve problems and get results?  Why are we more often opponents than colleagues? . . . Because the system is built to tear us apart.  In American politics, winning isn’t winning unless the other side is losing . . . “
 
Presidential candidate and third-term Congressman Dean Phillips said, “Members spend 10,000 hours a week dialing for dollars.  It’s insane.  I’m the only member who has declined to fundraise, which means I have a lot more time on my hands to serve my constituents instead of asking people for money.” Many Congressmen spend more time on fundraising than legislating. 
 
This week on the podcast, I interview Kevin Kosar, who worked at Congress on the policy side for years before joining a thinktank and penning the book, “Congress Overwhelmed: The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform.” 
 
“Congress has been reducing its policymaking capacities for decades, just as they’ve needed to do the opposite,” Kevin says.  “They got rid of the Office of Technology Assessment in the 90s, just before technology started to take off.”  Kevin’s concerns began years ago.  “I started seeing hearings degenerate into theatre and posturing instead of fact-finding, and said ‘uh-oh.’  And it’s gotten much worse since then.”
 
What can be done to improve things?  Here, Kevin offers some hope.  “What is crazy is that it’s totally up to Congress how to run itself.  There’s nothing in the Constitution about how Congress operates; the rules have just developed over time and now they’re making everyone miserable.  They can be changed at any time by Congress itself.” 
 
Meanwhile, expect more tension and drama in January as the fragile Republican majority gets put to the test again.  Hopefully no more elbows get thrown. 
 
For my interview with political scientist Kevin Kosar about how to fix Congress click here.  To see how Forward is working on improving our politics, click here.  To check out the Dean Phillips presidential campaign, click here – I think Dean may be our best chance to avoid a Biden – Trump rematch. 

Caution

A couple months ago, I attended an open house for a property that was for sale.  We weren’t really looking, but sometimes those things are fun.  This was a property that you could imagine buying as an investment. 

The problem was that the numbers didn’t make any sense.  At what they were asking for, the income generation of the property as a rental was maybe 3.5%.  Mortgage rates today are more than twice that.  And you can get higher interest rates on high-yield savings accounts.  I concluded that the listing price was about 40% over what I would deem a good value.  In the weeks since, they’ve cut the price multiple times, still to no takers. 

On the flip side, you have buyers who feel frozen out of the market because prices remain too high and no one can afford a mortgage.  A young couple who had been house hunting until recently said to me, “We’ve given up looking for the time being.” 

I talked to a friend in commercial real estate in New York – think office buildings.  “It’s a mess,” he says.  “Every day’s a new issue or problem.  And we aren’t fully occupied, not to previous levels.  I’d consider selling, but I don’t think we could get fair value, in part because no one is sure what fair value is now on an office building in Manhattan except that it’s a lot lower than the last appraisal.”  The level of commercial real estate debt that comes due in the next 18 months is over $1 trillion. 

I had lunch with a friend who invests in startups.  She told a similar story.  “There are dozens of companies that raised money in 2021 at valuations that now they can’t justify.  There are going to be massive haircuts of 50% or more, and those are the companies that are able to access new money.  A lot of them won’t be able to.”  She saw a lot of dying companies or depressed entrepreneurs in the not-so-distant future. 

There are strikes in the news every day, whether it’s the UAW or the actors, though I’m thrilled that the latter strike was just resolved.  One reason the media feels so shrill is that a lot of those companies are struggling to make money – even flagship names like the Washington Post.  Student loan repayment has kicked back in after a multi-year forbearance.    

The Biden Administration is touting rosy economic numbers – but most Americans don’t feel good about the economy even if their personal situation is all right. 

Now, you could say that commercial real estate is only a thing in certain cities, and most people don’t work at startups or for a striking union or as a journalist – all true.  Residential real estate obviously affects a lot of people, and there are a ton of Americans who would like to buy or sell a home but can’t do so because of elevated mortgage rates. 

Here’s the point - most Americans still feel that prices are too high and they are constantly under some sense of financial pressure.  And these are the good times. 

I’ve been an entrepreneur in flush times and in tough times.  I’m seeing tons of signs that tough times are around the bend. 

You operate differently in different periods.  In good times, you invest in growth.  In times of contraction, you batten down the hatches and streamline.  You make different kinds of bets.  And maybe, sometimes you settle for the smaller holiday party.  It feels to me that the latter kind of time is coming soon.    

What does this mean for our politics? 

Continuity will be a tough sell.  Someone – let’s say President Biden – running on how good things are will have a difficult time.  Particularly if things go from okay, which is where I think the economy is now, to a rough stretch. 

In my opinion, a lot of Democrats feel committed to Joe Biden out of a sense of fear and caution.  He’s at least familiar and comforting. 

But riding an 81-year old incumbent with a 39% approval rating and a message of “4 more years” may be the exact opposite of what the majority of Americans want to hear next year.  What seems like the safe bet may be the riskiest bet of all. 

---- 

Who could be a better bet for the Dems against Trump?  Check out Dean Phillips, a 54-year old Congressman from Minnesota whom I believe in. 

Election Day

Hello, I hope that your week is going well. 
 
Tuesday was a big Election Day – voters from around the country made their voices heard on issues big and small. 
 
Forward Party had a great showing with 5 new elected officials in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Connecticut! It’s a tremendous sign as to what we will be able to accomplish in 2024. 
 
Nationally, Democrats put up significant wins in Virginia, Kentucky and New Jersey – this has led some to think that Joe Biden is in great shape for 2024. 
 
The problem is that Joe Biden has singular qualities and weaknesses that voters are tuned into - primarily his age and his stewardship of the economy.  Voting for a young governor in Kentucky or a state rep in Virginia is a different thing than voting for an 81-year old incumbent President. 
 
Indeed, new polls came out this week saying that Trump is ahead in the swing states.  The drumbeat is consistent enough that a picture is starting to form. 
 
When I was running for President, I would often be asked about polls, which I would dismiss as missing the true energy and enthusiasm.  But when the voting started, the polls tended to be pretty accurate. 
 
I think the polls are accurate about Joe Biden’s standing; when I talk to Independent voters or young people about Joe, they often make a pained expression and shake their heads.  I don’t think betting that will change is the right approach. 
 
I’ve been supporting Dean Phillips as an alternative to Joe Biden.  Dean is what most Americans want: a sane, moderate 54-year old presidential candidate who will work to make things better.  I joke that Dean should change his name to Generic Democrat, because polls show that Trump loses to a generic Democrat by 8 points.
 
Why run an 81-year old with a 39% approval rating when you have a better choice standing right in front of you? 
 
Let’s take the right lessons from Election Day.  And work for better choices.

To check out Dean Phillips, click here.  To see what Forward is doing in your area, click here. 

2024

It’s less than one year until Election Day 2024 – and the calendar is coming up on us quickly.  The Forward Party is engaged with local candidates around the country this week, which is awesome. 
 
I get asked all of the time what I think will happen in 2024 in the presidential race.  Let’s take a look first at the Republicans, as the third debate takes place on Wednesday.  The 5 candidates who have qualified are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Tim Scott, all debating in the shadow of Donald Trump.  Mike Pence dropped out last week, a sign of things to come. 
 
In aggregate polling, Donald Trump has a 46 point lead over Ron DeSantis, 59% to 13%. Nikki Haley is next at 7.5%.  She’s doing better in the early states but is still 40 points behind Trump.  Trump is the prohibitive favorite to be the Republican nominee as long as he’s walking around and eligible to run. 
 
Who would win between Trump and Biden in the general? 
 
Polls are roughly even.  Joe Biden’s chances of winning rose two weeks ago based on two things.  First, RFK Jr. left the Democratic primary and went Independent.  Polling consistently shows RFK Jr. in low double-digits and taking more from Donald Trump than Joe Biden in the general election; it’s why you’re going to see a lot of negative stories about RFK Jr. from the conservative press from now until Election Day.  In a close election, the 1 or 2 percentage points being sucked away from Trump could be significant. 
 
The second thing that you might have missed was Cornel West breaking up with the Green Party.  I thought Cornel West would take 1-3% as the Green Party candidate, mostly from Joe Biden.  Now, I don’t think he makes the ballot in more than a handful of states and will more or less be a non-factor (perhaps by design).  Each of these developments amounts to a 1 or 2 point swing to Biden. 
 
However, there are still ominous signs for Biden.  Recent polling shows Trump with a small lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.  The Biden campaign was so concerned that they spent millions of dollars on positive advertising in some of these states, a highly unusual and aggressive move this early in the cycle.  The ads didn’t seem to have any effect.  Apparently, “Bidenomics” is not a winning message.  Biden’s approval ratings are stuck between 39 and 42% and economic concerns are persistent with voters. 
 
Over two-thirds of voters are also concerned about Joe’s advanced age.  If you ask a random person about Joe Biden’s re-election bid, they are likely to simply shake their head and say, “He’s too old.”  Perhaps running an 81-year old with a 40% approval rate isn’t a winning formula. 
 
Last week a new candidate arrived on the scene making this very case – Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota.  Dean is a moderate Democrat who has been exhorting other Dems to run against Joe Biden out of concerns over his electability.  When no one else took on the challenge, Dean decided to run himself. 
 
I’m personally very bullish on Dean’s campaign and see him as our best chance to avoid a Biden vs. Trump rematch.  You can check out Dean’s campaign here.  I’ve donated and hope you consider doing so too. 
 
Most people will initially dismiss Dean, though there is reason to believe that he’ll be competitive.  The truth is we won’t really know until New Hampshire votes in January – Joe Biden will be competing as a write-in candidate there.  If Dean runs very strongly in New Hampshire, how will that impact other states?  What will the media response be?  It’s essentially a 3-month sprint.  If numbers are to be believed, Dean is speaking for the majority of voters, which bodes well for his growth trajectory. 
 
Barring a Dean Phillips insurgence, which would be truly epic, the truth is that both major parties are poised to field historically weak candidates.  A generic Republican – e.g., Nikki Haley - would, I believe, defeat Joe Biden.  A generic Democrat – one not saddled with doubts about age and vitality – would defeat Donald Trump. 
 
Can either party shake free of the inertia of a Trump – Biden rematch that most Americans don’t want?  Whichever party can do just that will almost certainly win; I am excited for the first poll that shows Dean Phillips defeating Trump by 8 points, simply by virtue of being a 54-year old moderate Democrat.  Winning doesn’t seem to be the top priority of either party anymore though, much as they might protest otherwise. 
 
Yet underneath the thin layer of conformity and careerism is the will of the American people, hungry for better options.  I’d love to see that hunger satisfied on either side.  We have 3 months to make it happen. 
 
To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here.  For the holidays I am offering to personalize and sign books to use as a gift for that special someone!  Click here and we will get them out by the holidays. 

Dean Phillips

The 2024 presidential field has a new contender – Dean Phillips, 3-term Democratic Congressman from Minnesota.   

Dean is 54, which makes him a full 26 years younger than Joe Biden and 22 years younger than Donald Trump.  After attending Brown University he got his MBA and ran a family business and then a gelato company – Talenti - that was bought by Unilever.  He ran for Congress in a district that hadn’t had a Democrat in almost 60 years.  His slogan was, “Everyone’s invited.” 

I first met Dean last year at an American Promise event that was about overturning Citizens United.  “I’m the only member of Congress who refuses to dial for dollars,” Dean said.  “I kind of thought you were here to pass laws, not fundraise.”  As you can imagine, I liked him immediately.  

Months later, Dean called me in part to relay his concerns about the Democratic primary, or lack thereof.  “I support Joe, but I feel like we are playing a very dangerous game in 2024 riding on his health.  One bad week and we hand the country to Trump.”  

He’s not alone in his concerns.  Nearly 70 percent of Democratic voters believe Biden is too old to serve a 2nd term, and 67 percent say they’d prefer another candidate.  

So why hasn’t there been a primary challenge with numbers like that, outside of Marianne Williamson, RFK Jr. (since turned Independent) and Cenk Uygur?  

The DNC has closed ranks behind President Biden. There won’t be any primary debates and South Carolina – which Joe won – was moved to first in the primary season. The word has gone out to prominent Dems like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and JB Pritzker to wait until 2028.  And the press hasn’t treated previous challengers to Biden with any legitimacy – indeed, the press has taken turns attacking or ignoring anyone who has tried to interrupt Joe’s glide path.  

To Dean’s credit, his first choice was not to run.  He openly went around to other figures saying, “Someone more prominent than me should run against Joe, for the good of the country.”  Only when no one else bit did he really move toward taking the plunge.  “If he were 15 to 20 years younger it would be a no-brainer to nominate him, but considering his age it’s absurd we’re not promoting competition but trying to extinguish it.”  

Will Dean actually force a genuine competition?  

There are a number of reasons why I think Dean Phillips could do just that.  

First, candidates with a reason to run do better.  Dean is genuinely on a mission to provide the country a positive alternative to a Trump-Biden rematch that he views as disastrous.  He’s not someone who had this planned as a next step.  He’s intrinsically motivated and it will show. 

Second, he’s a good guy and a strong campaigner.  When people see him and hear him they’ll like him.  He likes other people too.  Believe it or not, that actually makes a difference.  

Third, he’s rich, with a net worth of $50 - $80 million.  He’ll have the resources to compete.  

Fourth, the press is bored.  Dean is getting mainstream press coverage like this Atlantic profile and I think that will continue.  

Fifth, it’s possible that Dean emboldens another major Democrat to join the primary, which would kickstart a genuine process.  Mission accomplished.  

Last, Dean is actually giving the American people what they want in a presidential candidate – a sane, moral 54-year old who is a real person.  How many people do you know who have wished for just that sort of figure to appear?  

Now, it’s going to be an uphill climb as every establishment Democrat has piled behind Joe even though they are nervous about his age in private.  There’s a hierarchy that is being upset and it’s not going to take it well.  But the mission is noble and has the potential to deliver us into a better future. 

I know Dean and admire him.  I’ve donated to his campaign.  You can donate here.   

Is it possible to improve upon the Trump – Biden rematch that so many of us fear is inevitable?  At least one person is staking his reputation on the answer being yes, and I hope for all of our sakes that he’s right.  I’ll be working to make it so.