Dean’s Path

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great. 

As you likely know, I’m supporting Dean Phillips’ presidential run for the Democratic nomination.  I feel he would be a vastly superior alternative to Joe Biden in November and would actually defeat Trump rather than lose to him. 

Many have written off Dean’s ability to spring an upset on Joe Biden based on Dean’s 20% showing in New Hampshire, which was a shockingly impressive result given only 11 weeks of campaigning as a newcomer.  Dean also had an environment where all of the independents went to the Republican primary for what they thought was the Haley vs. Trump showdown. 

Can Dean still win?  Yes he can, and here’s how.    

South Carolina votes on February 3rd.  That is Joe Biden and James Clyburn country and Dean will probably get in the low single digits.  Anything he does there is gravy. 

The next Democratic primary is Michigan on February 27th.  This will be the big opportunity for Dean, and it’s a good one. 

Joe Biden is struggling in Michigan.  A recent poll there had him losing to Trump by 8 points, with another Democrat – Gretchen Whitmer – beating Trump by 4.  That’s a 12-point swing, and it hasn’t gone unnoticed.  Several Michigan Democratic candidates are saying to reporters that they are concerned about running with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. 

One community specifically angry at Joe Biden in Michigan is the Arab American community; they are a traditional Democratic population that is openly looking for a Biden alternative. 

Dean is a good fit for Michigan.  He plays hockey and will feel familiar.

The odds are high that Nikki Haley will be out by February 24th, which is the date of the South Carolina primary.  That could leave Dean Phillips as the last man standing between us and the rematch from hell.  Independents in Michigan can vote in either primary, and will all pile into the Democratic primary as the Republican primary will be over. 

Dean doesn’t need to necessarily win either – if he puts up a very significant number in Michigan, that could kick off a competitive dynamic and a geyser of support heading to Super Tuesday in March. 

Now, this is going to be very difficult, as Michigan is a big state.  Dean will need about $10 million in support to be able to communicate effectively statewide that there’s a real primary and Joe Biden has competition.  He will have to connect with voters there and build a movement in 4 weeks in a limited national press environment.  The odds are long and a lot has to go right. 

But his path is real.  In many ways, Michigan is the new New Hampshire, our big chance to shift the political future of this country. 

Dean went from 0 to 20% in 10 weeks.  Can he continue to grow in Michigan? 

A lot can happen in a month.  Let’s get to work.  

Go to Dean24.com to help and tell your friends in Michigan and South Carolina!

South Carolina and Michigan

Hello, I hope that your week is going well. 

It looks like Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee after New Hampshire – he managed to defeat Nikki Haley by double-digits in what should be her strongest state.  Now the primary heads to South Carolina where Trump is favored to win by 20+ points.  Nikki Haley will persist for a while, but a big loss in her home state could be a very daunting prospect.  The Republican primary in South Carolina takes place on February 24th. 

Dean Phillips got 20% in the Democratic primary, a stunningly impressive result given that he started his campaign only 11 weeks ago as a total unknown.  It would have been higher if more Independents had decided to vote Democratic - only 115,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary as opposed to 320,000 in the Republican primary.  Clearly, Independents thought the action was over on the Republican side, understandable given the bombardment of Trump and Haley advertising in the state. 

Still, 20% is a sign that many Democrats want a genuine choice and a competition, which is consistent with the polling that shows grave concerns about Biden.  Indeed, a new poll came out today showing Biden losing to Trump by 7 points nationally, adding to an ever-growing drumbeat of polls in Trump’s direction. 

Dean is still new to most Americans, and millions are hungry for a fresh new alternative to free us from the clash of the 80 year olds.  A number of people reached out to me about him after New Hampshire, so his profile continues to grow. 

We deserve a better contest than Biden vs. Trump II – in what world are those the two best people to lead this country in 2025?    

Now the Democratic primary calendar heads to South Carolina on February 3rd and then Michigan on February 27th.  South Carolina will be difficult for Dean to make inroads, but in true ‘run to the fire’ fashion Dean is heading there right now.  I am going down on Friday to join him in making the case.  I loved campaigning in South Carolina and it will be fun to get back. 

If you know people in South Carolina or Michigan, please let them know that Dean is on the ballot in both in February and to head to dean24.com to find a local event.  I’ll be coming to Michigan too, I have a lot of friends there.   

Can we avert the Trump vs. Biden rematch that none of us wants and that may well lead to catastrophe?  New Hampshire opened the door a crack, and now it’s up to South Carolina and Michigan to shove it open.  Let’s go.  

Democracy’s Last Stand

Hello from New Hampshire one day before the primary!  It’s no exaggeration to say that Tuesday could be democracy’s last stand. 

On the Republican side, Nikki Haley is trailing Donald Trump by 16 points.  I’ve spoken to a bunch of New Hampshire voters and I think that polling reflects the result on Tuesday.  There are Trump supporters everywhere I go and most of the Haley supporters I run into are non-Republicans considering crossing over just to vote. 
 
Donald Trump held a rally in Concord Friday and Tim Scott – whom Nikki Haley appointed to the Senate in South Carolina – endorsed him.  The Trump Train is alive and well in New Hampshire. 
 
In my view, the real action is on the Democratic side as Joe Biden is running against Dean Phillips who is climbing fast.  I endorsed Dean last week and have been campaigning for him in the Granite State.
 
I’ve had dozens of conversations with New Hampshire voters and you can see them waking up in real time.  “I saw a TV ad two days ago, and then Googled Dean yesterday, and now I’m thinking about voting for him.”  I heard that over and over.  The energy around Dean’s campaign is going up on an almost hourly basis. 
 
Among the comments I’ve heard:
 
“I’m voting for him.  We need something new.” 
 
“I like that he’s actually campaigning here in the State.” 
 
“I’m glad there’s a Democrat running who isn’t Joe Biden.” 
 
“I didn’t realize that voting in the Democratic primary was important.  I’m going to vote for Dean and my husband is too.” 
 
I’m not sure where that nets out in terms of the vote on Tuesday, but I do know the support for Dean is real and growing fast.  The crowds are getting bigger everywhere he goes. 

The Biden camp is already trying to downplay the results, saying Joe isn’t on the ballot and campaigning.  But they’re worried and they’re investing real resources.  They’ve sent a small army of officials, including a majority of the Cabinet to campaign in the state.  Their PAC has invested over $1.25 million on the Joe Biden write-in campaign and held over 20 get-out-the-vote events to try and make sure the President wins by a comfortable margin. 
 
Tuesday may be democracy’s last stand.  If the results go to script, both primaries could effectively be over.  New Hampshire is likely to be Nikki Haley’s strongest state, and if she loses it’s possible she drops out rather than lose in her home state February 3rd, as South Carolina actually favors Trump more than NH. 
 
And if Joe Biden draws 80%+ support, the Trump vs. Biden nightmare matchup is just about set, a matchup I fear Joe will lose, thus delivering us to Trump’s return in November.
 
But if Dean Phillips puts up a significant number, the American people could wake up to the fact that we CAN upgrade from the battle of the 80-year olds.  We can defeat Trump and turn the page to a new era of American politics. 
 
What kind of number does Dean need on Tuesday to kickoff a competitive primary?  No one is quite sure.  Dean says anything over 20% would be ‘magnificent’ given that he started with zero just 10 weeks ago.  SE Cupp says 30% would be ‘undeniable’ to journalists trying to measure the race.  42% would be historic, as that’s the vote Eugene McCarthy got in ’68 that forced LBJ to drop out days later. 
 
Barack Obama and Bill Clinton got 81% and 84% in their reelection bids in New Hampshire, so anything a lot lower than that is a bad look for Joe. 
 
If Dean gets above 20% that’s a very big sign that the Democratic electorate wants to have a real competition.  That’s why I’m here in New Hampshire.  Here are my asks for you: 
 
1. If you have any friends in New Hampshire, reach out to them and ask them to vote for Dean.  It’s our best hope and very important.  If you live near New Hampshire, come join us it’s a lot of fun!    
 
2. If you can, donate to Dean’s campaign at dean24.com.  The campaign needs every bit of support it can get.  Evelyn and I donated and hope that you do too. 
 
3. Tell all of your friends that a real race is on!  Amplify it far and wide.  Most people still haven’t heard about Dean and we need to change that. 
 
Will democracy deliver us a genuine choice on Tuesday that can invigorate our future?  I’ll be here in New Hampshire doing my best to make it happen along with Zach, Carly, Conrad, Tom, Jon, Shane, Julian, Trivette, Katie, Ali, Kait, Don and a lot of other awesome people.  Let’s do it.  The stakes are incredibly high. 

My Endorsement of Dean Phillips

I went to New Hampshire today to formally endorse Dean Phillips for President of the United States.  Here’s my speech from Hanover: 

Hello New Hampshire, it’s great to be back!  I went to high school here in the state and am going to speak at my alma mater tomorrow morning.  And of course I spent months here campaigning 4 years ago and had a wonderful time.  

The last 4 years have not been great.  This is a difficult and trying time.  Americans across the country are questioning whether our future will be brighter than our past. 

Looming over this is our presidential race.  Joe Biden has been an accomplished and substantial president.  I endorsed him and voted for him in 2020 and was even a campaign surrogate.  I’ve had the opportunity to meet and spend time with him and he is a good man, a true public servant and a great American. 

While he was the right candidate 4 years ago, he is not now. 

4 years ago, the Patriots were 12-4 and 1st in the AFC East.  2024 is not 2020. 

President Biden said in 2020 that he was going to be the bridge to the next generation.

Today that is exactly what we need.  Joe Biden is at 38% approval, an historic low and a full 10 points lower than Barack Obama was at the same time.  He is down by 4 in Wisconsin, down by 8 in Georgia, and down by 8 in Michigan, all swing states that Joe won in 2020.  He is down by 9 in North Carolina, virtually tied in Minnesota, I could go on and on.  

There are people who say that Joe Biden has been down before and that he can win again.  There are a number of reasons to think this optimism is misplaced.  First, the Biden campaign already spent $25 million on advertising in the swing states trying to bump up the President’s numbers by making people feel better about the economy.  The impact?  Zero.  People have made up their minds about this economy and this President, and an ad campaign will not fix this.    

Second, the President is 81.  All of the things that a candidate must do to be successful – travel, project energy, rally, meet voters, conduct interviews, call surrogates – all of them will be more difficult with an older candidate whose team will be concerned about him stumbling, literally or figuratively, at every turn.  The candidate matters!  It will be hard to reinvent grandpa. 

Third, this campaign is undermining the President’s greatest strength.  What is Joe’s superpower?  It is that he is a good man whom many of us believe will try to do the right thing for the country.  He is failing the George Washington test that he referenced recently in his Valley Forge speech – knowing when to pass the baton and walk away.  His spirit of service has become ego and stubbornness that are leading us toward disaster.  Sometimes, the highest form of leadership is stepping aside. 

Poll after poll shows that a generic Democrat defeats Trump by 6 or 8 points, the same polls that show Joe losing by 3 or 4.  Joe recently said that 50 Democrats could defeat Donald Trump.  He is right – and one of them, Dean Phillips, the only one to step up, is standing beside me right now. 

In a time of deep distress against Trump, the wrong plan is to run a terribly unpopular 81 year old incumbent who is down in polls both nationally and in the swing states that matter. 

Why hasn’t Joe gotten more competition?  Here’s why.  Joe Biden appointed Jaime Harrison of South Carolina the Chair of the DNC.  There are only 2 decisionmakers here – Joe Biden and the man he appointed.  Everyone else has been told to fall in line, and they are doing so even as it is leading us toward a 2nd disastrous, calamitous loss to Donald Trump. 

New Hampshire understands this self-dealing, as you are being punished right now by the DNC for holding a primary that you are required to hold by state law.  You don’t control the state legislature and couldn’t make the change even if you wanted to.  And this is a swing state!  The DNC is failing the voters of this state and failing the country by stifling any competition, including canceling the primaries altogether in Florida and North Carolina, another swing state.  They talk about championing democracy while crushing it just when we need it most. 

For Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, JB Pritzker and other prominent Democrats, you are missing your moment.  The country needs you now, not in 2028.  If Trump wins in November, what will be left for us in 2028?  What matters more, your standing in the party or your country?  We all know you want to run for President, and your time is right now.  In 2028, you’ll also have Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore to contend with, and they won’t have missed their moment. 

In this time of need, only one man decided to place his country over his political career, put his own conviction above the chattering class, and that is the man I am proud to endorse as the next President of the United States, 3-term Congressman from Minnesota Dean Phillips!!! 

Dean has the character, vision and values to lead us to a new era in America. 

Dean has led a successful business, building Talenti Gelato into a national brand.  

After Trump won, Dean felt he had to do more for his two daughters and the country.  He ran for Congress and flipped a red-leaning district that hadn’t been represented by a Democrat in over fifty years.  No one thought he had a chance, but he ran a positive campaign with the slogan, “Everyone’s invited.”  His last race he won by double-digits and he’s now in his third term.  Dean has never lost a race. 

I met Dean when he was in Congress two years ago at a campaign finance reform event where he despaired that all of his colleagues spent thousands of hours a week dialing for dollars.  He was the only member who didn’t, figuring he was actually there to try to get things done.  As you can imagine, I liked him immediately – imagine a member of Congress who doesn’t like calling donors and was willing to say so.

Dean is running for President not because it somehow serves his interests, but because it is the right thing to do.  He was alarmed that we were sleepwalking toward disaster and called other leading Democrats asking them to run.  While people agreed with him in private, in public they toed the party line.  They put their careers ahead of the country.  Only when no one else stepped up did Dean take on the challenge himself.  He thought of his father who died in Vietnam in a helicopter crash serving our country.  What would he do?  Dean has now been accused of all sorts of things because that’s the politics of today, but his decision to run for President is among the most courageous acts I have seen in American life.  His father would be proud. 

Dean is all in.  You know one reason why members of Congress generally make terrible presidential candidates?  It’s because when the going gets tough they often double back to seek re-election to their current seat.  Not Dean.  He gave up a safe Congressional seat to try and save his country, giving up a promising career in party leadership out of duty.  That is character, the kind of character that so many of our leaders today lack.  If we had more people in Washington willing to upend their careers like Dean, we would be a much stronger country.     

Dean has a compelling vision and motivation – to make America more affordable for working families.  He knows that healthcare costs are the number one cause of bankruptcy in America – that’s why he signed a Medicare for All bill that would finally ensure that all Americans have access to quality care.  He wants to have a baby bond of $1,000 for every child born in America that would grow to be significant by the time that child is 18.  He wants to bring back the enhanced child tax credit that lifted millions of American families out of poverty.  He wants to ease our housing crisis by building 7 million new housing units around the country.  He wants to make college and vocational school alike cost-free so young people have a better shot at a brighter future. 

These are the kind of goals that Americans of all parties and backgrounds can get excited about. 

Dean will govern as a different kind of President who puts leadership ahead of the letter next to your name.  Dean will recruit the best people to his administration, from both within and outside of the party and government.  It is impossible to reunite and repair our country while we are divided into two warring factions for the amusement of the media and the political industrial complex.  Dean will literally repair America with the most non-partisan bipartisan Cabinet anyone has ever seen. 

Dean is not just for campaign finance reform but for open primaries, ranked choice voting and term limits.  No one knows how dark the machinery is more than Dean.  He may not seem like it because he’s such a congenial guy, but Dean has the potential to be the most transformative leader we have seen in our lifetimes.  

I ran for President and know that the people of this country are much better than the leadership we are getting, that we are united in much more than the parties and the partisan media would have you believe.    

To those on the left who are progressive, Dean is our best chance to pass universal healthcare, get baby bonds, make housing more affordable and alleviate meaningless suffering for millions of Americans.    

To Democrats, Dean is our best chance to defeat Donald Trump once and for all and ensure that democracy persists and prevails. 

To Independents, Dean is our best chance to put the people’s interests above the parties that separate and divide us and return government to the people.  

To moderate Republicans, Dean is the 2nd most bipartisan member of Congress and will include you in the future as we move past Trump. 

To journalists and influencers, wouldn’t you rather cover a real primary process rather than slump into the battle of the 80-year olds?  Dean’s victory could be one of the greatest stories of this era. 

To my friend Marianne Williamson, you have run a noble, courageous campaign and have articulated many of the things that Americans should expect and deserve.  I ask you to join us in challenging the true enemy.  The true enemy is the political establishment that does not care about our families and communities and a media cabal that will suppress or demonize those who want change on behalf of the people of this country.  Marianne, Dean is our best chance to change things.  I am looking forward to serving in his administration and I would love for you to join us. 

For the voters of New Hampshire, I’ve met thousands of you over the years and I know how seriously you take the trust of this country to pick a President.  What does your heart tell you is the right thing to do?  Are we going to careen toward disaster, or will you save us and move the country forward in a new and better direction?  Will we settle for politics as usual or will we try for something better?  If you spend time with Dean, you will see that he has the makings of a tremendous President. 

Dean is a sane, smart, pragmatic, 54-year old leader who wants to bring the country back together and improve our lives.  He is unbeholden to the special interests who dominate our politics.  He is the man for this moment.  He is what most Americans – certainly most Independents who will decide our elections – want in a candidate.  Most of all, he will win.

What do you think New Hampshire – do you want to help Dean win?   

Me too.  I’m proud to introduce the next President of the United States, Dean Phillips!  

Shifting Parties

Hello, I hope things are going well for you this holiday weekend!  MLK Day is a special day for so many of us as he died combating the three great evils of racism, poverty and war. 

The Iowa Republican Primary takes place today – barring something shocking Trump is expected to prevail.  And tonight will likely be the end of the line for Ron DeSantis, who has gone all in on Iowa. 

Nikki Haley will benefit from Chris Christie’s withdrawal in New Hampshire but still faces steep odds given Trump’s significant lead nationwide and in Nikki’s home state of South Carolina.   

What would a Trump nomination mean in ’24?  This week on the podcast I interview Patrick Ruffini, a pollster who wrote the recent book “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.”  Patrick makes two major arguments.  First, he says that the main dividing line between the parties now is not class - it’s education.  About 64% of the electorate are non-college graduates, and the Republican Party increasingly dominates with this group. 

In the old days, the Democratic Party did great among white, blue-collar workers.  Today, not so much.

This also helps explain why Trump is so strong in the Republican primary as non-college voters vastly prefer him over Haley and others.  

The second realignment is that nonwhite working-class voters are increasingly leaving the Democratic Party and voting Republican, “from the Cuban Americans of Little Havana, to the Hispanic voters of the Rio Grande Valley, to Vietnamese immigrants in Orange County, California.”  This overlaps with Patrick’s education thesis, as there are plenty of non-college educated non-white voters who aren’t activated by the current Democratic Party’s emphasis on social issues. 

Patrick’s analysis is a sobering wake up call to those who think that Biden is going to prevail over Trump because of a Democratic advantage among voters.  Patrick observes, “Going into 2024 . . . it is weak support for an octogenarian Biden among Black and Hispanic voters, especially younger voters, that accounts for most of Trump’s improved standing in the polls.”  The traditional Democratic coalition is fragmenting, shedding non-college voters in every group.  The 2024 election is going to be determined by whether a critical mass of non-college educated blue collar workers in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina feel well-served by the status quo or prefer their memories of the economy of 2019. 

If Trump wins the Republican nomination – which he could in the next 6 weeks – he would be the favorite against Joe Biden.  The best way out is to put forward a new Democratic nominee that is unburdened by incumbency and centered on economically populist messaging – someone like Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota. 

 Moving forward, the answer is a popular movement designed to address inequities that are shared by Americans at every education level.  “A college diploma, the most basic prerequisite for working in politics and the news media, was the very thing that blinded the elite to Trump’s appeal and hobbled those who wished to stop him,” Patrick writes. The Democratic Party didn’t understand this in 2016 – and it’s running out of time in 2024. 

For my interview of Patrick on his book click here.  To check out Forward, click here.  To help out the Dean Phillips campaign click here – New Hampshire votes next week on Jan. 23rd! 

No Time Like the Present

Photo: Ching Juhl

Hello, hope that you are doing great for the holiday weekend! 

I turn 49 today.  I am celebrating with friends and family over the long weekend. 

49 feels not old, but not young either.  I’ve been young my entire life.  I skipped kindergarten so I was always young for my grade.  I ran for President at 44 and turned 45 just as the voting started. 

When I turned 30 I did some youthful things – like skydiving with buddies.  I hated my birthdays as a kid as I didn’t have many friends; as an adult I’ve kind of made it a point to do something enjoyable. 

Now, I’m a bit less young.  I visited my parents over the holidays – my father is 83 and my mother in her mid-70s.  I’m trying to appreciate these golden years while they are still healthy and vital and my kids are old enough to form memories. 

An older friend of mine told me that I’ll be happier and more productive in the next 10 years than I have ever been in my life.  Is he right?  I’m proud of the way I’ve lived my life.  I built a business that created opportunities for people.  I started a non-profit that does great work to this day.  I helped mainstream the idea of Universal Basic Income that will help us alleviate poverty.  I pushed for cash relief.  I’ve written a few books that people tell me impacted them.  I’m helping make the case for political reform with Forward. 

And of course, I’ve got two wonderful children and a loving family who are, generally speaking, thriving. 

I’ve had incredible experiences, the kind of things that I never could have imagined growing up.  I’ll confess that there are times when I have my doubts about whether my best days are ahead of me.  Some people do their best work at a particular time of life.  There’s no shame in that. 

I have stood in front of thousands of people at a campaign rally and helped channel their – our – hopes for a brighter future.  I still have those hopes.  I hope you still have them too. 

When people ask me whether I’m running for President again, I respond, “Apparently I’ve got 40 more years” which always gets a laugh.  But that’s not actually the way I think.  I’m more, “How can I effect maximum change for people that will improve their lives?”  I want to attack every day with that energy.

And right now, I have a very clear answer – it’s to help Dean Phillips become President.  

I see Dean as our best chance to improve our trajectory as a nation.  He’s for universal healthcare, baby bonds, ranked choice voting and more.  He’s raised $1 million since declaring and could use our help.  I’m heading to New Hampshire next week for the campaign – Dean is at 26% in New Hampshire and rising fast! 

If you’d like to help me celebrate my birthday, please donate to the Dean Phillips campaign or, if that’s not your speed, the Forward Party or Humanity Forward. 

And please get the word out about Dean.  Call your friends in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan.  He’s the me of this cycle, and if he wins, we’ll be there at the table.  And then, our best days really could be ahead of us.  That would absolutely make my birthday wish come true.  

How Things Grow

Hello and Happy New Year!

A new poll has Dean Phillips at 21% in New Hampshire - he has a chance to make history on January 23rd! I see Dean as our best chance to put America on a better track.

I spoke at USC a few months ago when a student asked me something important: “Outside of political reform, how can we best bring about a human-centered economy that works for people in the age of AI?”

I responded, “Help a non-profit grow, as they are based on more human-centered goals and values.”

My answer was fine as far as it went. But at present non-profits are structurally capped in terms of their growth and impact due to a number of factors.

This is a subject Dan Pallotta knows all too well. Dan helped start AIDS Rides and Breast Cancer 3-Day Walks, which raised over $500 million for their respective causes. He then became passionate about the fact that non-profits are hamstrung in their ability to truly address our problems. “Why has poverty stayed at essentially the same level for decades?” Dan asks. He gave a TED Talk on this topic and a documentary about Dan’s work and ideas, “Uncharitable,” is now streaming.

So, why can’t non-profits grow to solve our biggest problems? First, charities pay less. As Dan describes, “If you want to sell video games and make $50 million go for it, but if you want to cure malaria we have a big problem with you making $500,000. The median Stanford MBA makes $400,000 a year . . . so it’s cheaper for the MBA to donate $100,000 to charity and get a tax break, become a philanthropist and sit on the board and boss around the head of the charity and have a lifetime of prosperity and accolades than to actually run the nonprofit.”

The second area is advertising and marketing. “It’s fine for companies to spend to the moon on marketing, but we don’t like our donations spent on advertising. It’s one reason why the non-profit sector has been stuck at 2% of GDP and unable to wrestle away any market share.”

The third area is taking risks. “Disney can make a $200 million movie that flops and no one calls the attorney general. If you do a $1 million fundraiser for the poor and it doesn’t bring in 75% return in the first 12 months your character gets called into question. If you can’t take risks, you can’t grow and you can’t innovate.”

The fourth area is time. “For-profit companies like Amazon can invest in a giant project for 10 years in a bet on scale that pays off later. In philanthropy if you tried to build something at scale for 6 years and nothing went to the needy during that time, someone would have lost their job 5 years ago.”

The fifth area is capital. “The for-profit sector can pay people profits to attract capital for their new ideas, but the non-profit sector is starved for growth and idea capital.”

So in summary, you can’t pay as much, you can’t advertise, you can’t take risks, you don’t have the same amount of time, and you don’t have a stock market to fund it even if you find something promising. Says Dan, “From 1970 – 2009, 144 non-profits grew to over $50 million in revenue per year. The number of for-profit companies that grew to that level was 46,136. The problems are at scale but our non-profits can’t keep up.”

I spent 6 years running a non-profit that I founded in 2011 before running for President. People would say, “Non-profits run on two things: passion and money.” Too often we put too much weight on the first and expect people to make do with less or even take permanent vows of poverty in order to do good work.

Dan’s fundamental argument is that we need to rethink the concept of overhead for non-profits if it is funding growth. What’s better, a bake sale that spends 5% on expenses to raise $71 and helps 1 person or a hunger charity that spends 40% on growth to raise $71 million and helps 1 million people? If your goal is to actually solve the real problems, the answer is obvious.

What would a human-centered economy look like? First, it would require a government that channels resources more effectively to improve people’s lives. And second, it would include a thriving non-profit sector that solves problems and rewards people doing the work.

For my interview of Dan click here and for the documentary click here. To reform the political system with Forward click here. For our best shot to change things this cycle, check out the Dean Phillips campaign, which could give rise to a more human-centered economy starting with universal healthcare. He’s at 21% in New Hampshire and rising fast - and the vote is in 2 weeks!

21%

Happy New Year!  

A new poll came out on Friday that had Dean Phillips up to 21% in New Hampshire in the Democratic primary.  Joe Biden was at 58% and Marianne Williamson at 5%.  

This is a major piece of news.  Dean Phillips declared just two months ago. To go from 0 to 21% in 2 months is stunning.  

This is particularly true as the awareness of Dean in New Hampshire remains low - his name ID is below 50% in the state.  Most voters still haven’t tuned in.  Imagine if most people realized that there was an appealing option outside of Biden that also matches up better against Trump? 

Factor in the fact that Joe Biden will be a write-in and the picture is clear - Dean Phillips can win in New Hampshire on January 23rd.  This would be a political earthquake.  

Now, he still has to grow in the next two weeks.  An ad campaign would help - I’d urge you to donate today so that his campaign can get the word out in New Hampshire.  

But if he gets the resources, Dean can win. A new positive 54-year old nominee is what most Americans want.  

Can the Democrats succeed in upgrading from their unpopular 81-year old incumbent in time?  We are going to find out a lot on January 23rd in New Hampshire.  

I have the feeling that Dean is going to keep on climbing past 21% - let’s help him get there, for all of our sakes.  

2024

Happy New Year!  2024 is going to be a huge year. 
 
Huge good, or not-so-good?  This week on the podcast I welcome back old friend Zach Graumann to make some predictions for the New Year. 
 
On the economic front, I predict that the mild recession that we avoided in 2023 will come to pass in 2024.  There are signs of consumer weakness in credit card and auto loan delinquencies and failure to repay student loan debt among other early indicators, and the colossal imbalances in commercial real estate have yet to be reckoned with.  The locked up residential real estate market won’t help.  Startups are in survival mode and cash is scarce.  At some point, the negative feelings about the economy will spill into behavior, and I think that hits in ’24. 
 
There are times to take risks and times to pull back.  I think this year is the latter in terms of the economy. 
 
Of course, any downturn makes the political climate rockier for an incumbent.  Zach and I make the bold prediction that Joe Biden won’t be the Democratic nominee.  This is self-serving as Zach is working on the Dean Phillips campaign, but Joe Biden’s polling collapse and advanced age have stirred unease and questions that will only heat up.  Will an alternative emerge from within the Democratic Party?  New Hampshire votes on January 23rd and will be the first big indication whether we are in for a coronation or a competition.  We, and most Americans, would prefer the latter. 
 
I also predict that third party candidates – RFK Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, Joe Manchin?? – will get their highest share of the national vote since 1992, when Ross Perot got 18.9%. With 75% of Americans thinking we are on the wrong track and 65% despairing about the two-party system, a lot of people will be willing to vote differently this year. 
 
(In case you’re wondering what Forward is up to in ’24, we will be supporting local candidates in swing states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina to boost the turnout for those who aren’t extremists, perhaps helping the country avoid an authoritarian returning to the White House.  Good plan!)
 
Zach and I both believe that 2024 is the year that AI hits your workplace in earnest, as it becomes part of the way organizations function.  Last year firms hired AI consultants.  This year they start implementing.  That will have mixed effects to say the least.  I talked to a CIO who said that AI is already replacing coders offshore, and is accelerating and assisting unskilled coders making them more productive.  On the other hand, some experienced coders have become less relevant.  So some people are winning and some are losing.  This will play out differently in different orgs, but it’s coming to a workplace near you.    
 
We also think that 2024 will be the AI election cycle, with deepfake videos and audio recordings hitting down the stretch just as voting starts.  You might want to turn away from your social media feed starting in October or so, as the incentives to inflame or misinform voters will be sky-high and the information environment with be toxic and out-of-control.  Other countries have started seeing this, and we will too. 
 
These are strange and challenging times – but there will be positive opportunities.  One of them is to turn the page by getting behind a 54-year old upstart presidential candidate challenging the 81-year old unpopular incumbent; imagine having a young dynamic President who doesn’t owe the machine anything in power.  That’s how I’d like the year to end.  It hinges on the voters of New Hampshire making their voices heard on January 23rd.

For my convo with Zach about the year ahead, click here.  To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here – he may be our best hope for ’24.  To join Forward in boosting positive local candidates, click here. 

Happy Holidays!!

Hello and Happy Holidays to you and yours!  I hope that you are celebrating with friends and family.  

I remember as a kid being thrilled the first time I saw holiday lights go up in the neighborhood.  My parents were often the ones hosting our relatives in our house so I associate this time of year with having lots of family members around.  Now as a Dad I try to do the same thing though Evelyn and I aren’t the greatest hosts, and because our parents are on the older side now, we often go to them. 

I’m at an age now when many of my friends’ parents are having health problems.  It’s made me eager to spend as much time with my folks as we can.  I try to convey to Christopher and Damian everything that their grandparents went through as immigrants to this country, and how grateful they should be.  They definitely don’t get that right now because they’re kids – but I hope it sinks in down the road.

I also try to tell our boys – when they fight – that they should appreciate each other, because they will always have each other.  They will always be brothers.  And they should feel lucky that they have each other.  Of course they don’t really get that now either.  Maybe later they will. 

For a lot of folks in the world, it’s been a difficult year.  I spend a lot of my time trying to improve things, and I confess that sometimes it feels like the ground is muddy beneath my feet and I’m walking uphill. 

But I’m surrounded by incredible people who are trying to solve problems and make life better for those around them.  It’s invigorating getting to do work you care about every day.  

Thank you for making that possible for me. 

In many ways, that’s what I think the Holidays are about - appreciating the people in our lives and all that we have to be grateful for here and now.  And from that gratitude, good things will grow. 

Happy Holidays from our family to yours!  Let the people in your life know how much they mean to you. 🙂

- Andrew, Evelyn, Christopher and Damian