37%

Hello, I hope that your Holiday Season is off to a great start! 
 
I was on CNN last week talking about the collapsing support for President Biden in the recent polls.  The numbers are stunning. 
 
Biden’s approval rating has plummeted to 37% in several recent polls.  His approval rating is lower than any other President at this point in history.  And everyone else even close to him went on to lose. 

Credit:  Tom Leung / Nerds for Humanity 

Bloomberg has Biden down 10 points to Trump in Michigan, a key swing state that Biden won in 2020.  The same poll has Biden’s deficit at 5 points in Georgia, another key swing state.  A poll in Minnesota has the result within the margin of error; this is a state that Joe Biden won by 7 points in 2020 and isn’t even considered a swing state.  If Joe Biden has to spend money and energy shoring up a place like Minnesota, that’s a disaster.  Pew has Joe Biden’s approval rating nationwide at a shocking 33%.

2 months ago, you would say, “Okay, this is going to be a close election,  maybe 50-50.”  Now, it is very difficult to look at these numbers and say anything other than, if the election were to be held tomorrow, Trump would be the prohibitive favorite to win.  Trump is also rolling through the Republican primary. 
 
So, is a turnaround for Joe Biden in the offing?  There are a number of reasons that suggest it won’t be. 
 
First, the trend right now is clearly negative.  Biden’s numbers are slumping and disintegrating in real time.  People are increasingly fed up. 
 
Second, the Biden campaign spent $25 million on an advertising campaign intended to buck up his numbers in the swing states.  The effect?  Zero.  This is not a situation that an advertising campaign can fix. 
 
Third, the President is 81 years old.  I am regularly seeing videos of his latest verbal stumbles in my social media feed despite not looking for them.  It is very difficult to reinvent grandpa.  You can’t just send him out to do some friendly interviews and hope people are reminded of why they liked him.  He’s different in 2024 than he is in 2020. 
 
Fourth, on some level, voters believe Joe Biden is making a selfish decision by running again and are holding it against him.  His strength is that he’s a good man and loves this country.  But his decision to run again seems to be putting his own ego ahead of the country’s interests, particularly in light of his recent statement that “There are 50 Democrats who could defeat Trump.” 
 
He’s right.  This is the opposite of his campaign in 2020, when he said essentially, “I’m the only one who can defeat Trump.” 
 
Now, 4 years later, he is probably the weakest candidate.  He’s gone from being the best candidate against Trump to the worst. 
 
Last week I publicly asked Joe Biden to step aside and let a real primary play out.  In my view, conscientious Americans who don’t want a Trump return should be supporting Dean Phillips, the only elected official who has decided to run against Biden for the sake of the country.  The best hope to defeat Trump is to field the strongest possible nominee. 
 
Indeed, the same polls that have Joe losing to Trump by several points have a generic Democrat defeating Trump by 8 points.  Imagine if Trump were running against a sane, positive 54-year old Democrat like Dean; all of a sudden voters would rejoice that they had a genuine choice.  It would feel refreshing, particularly against a candidate like Trump.    
 
New Hampshire votes on January 23rd – I believe that if they know they have an option in Dean Phillips, they will jump on it.  Zach Graumann, who most of you know as my campaign manager, has already joined Dean’s campaign.  It’s going to be a busy month.  And a ton is riding on waking voters up to a better option than sleepwalking into disaster. 
 
To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here.  To help cure our political system check out Forward – we are having a big year-end online event tonight.    

Dean Phillips ‘24

Hello, I hope that your holidays are going great. 
 
This week on the podcast I interview Dean Phillips, Democratic candidate for President.  I’m excited about his campaign for a few reasons.

First, I think that he dramatically improves the chances of not having Donald Trump win in ‘24.  Joe Biden’s approval ratings are now down to 37% (!!!) and he is losing to Trump in most of the swing states.  The Democrats should be furiously searching for a candidate who is better situated to defeat Trump.  Someone like, say, a 54-year old moderate Congressman from Minnesota who won a red-leaning district 3 times. 
 
“People didn’t think that I could win that first race, but I got out and ran a positive campaign.  Not only did we win but my margin of victory went up in each race.” 
 
Dean made headlines as a member of Congress when he stated what most people believe: that Joe Biden should make way for another candidate.  “When people say one thing in private and another thing in public, it’s dangerous.  The numbers are clear that President Biden isn’t well-positioned against Trump, but no one was willing to say it when a camera was on them even as they were saying it to each other every day.” 
 
“I went out and asked other people to run.  When no one else was willing to do it, I decided I couldn’t stand by when the country is at such a pivotal point.  I told my daughters I was going to do everything I could against Trump, and I’m going to do just that.” 
 
What would Dean do as President?  “First, I’m going to be a leader for all Americans.  I’m going to have a team of rivals in my Cabinet.  Good ideas come from anywhere, not just from one party.  We need to repair America.  I’m going to have a youth Cabinet from all 50 states as well.  Young people need more voice.” 
 
“Second, everywhere I go Americans are struggling.  Housing costs are too high and there’s a national shortage.  We should build 7 million new homes immediately. We need a national healthcare system so that no one is going bankrupt from going sick.  I will make sure we have a universal healthcare system.  We have to reduce the cost of education and the debt load for millions of Americans.  I’m also for piloting UBI because I think AI is going to disrupt the jobs and livelihoods of a lot of Americans.  I’m going to make America affordable for people and families.” 
 
Dean and I met at a campaign finance reform event.  “Our system is corruptive.  I’m for open primaries, ranked choice voting and publicly financing elections.  I’m for term limits.  My colleagues in Congress spend thousands of hours a week dialing for dollars.  If everyone you talk to is rich, you lose touch with how most Americans live, where most are living paycheck to paycheck and 40% can’t afford a $400 bill.” 
 
Can Dean win?  I think he can because of the way the calendar is laid out.  New Hampshire votes on January 23rd, and it’s not a state that Joe Biden has ever done well in, even before he demoted them for South Carolina.  “When we win New Hampshire, imagine the headlines on January 24th.  All of a sudden a ton of people will be paying attention.”  Dean is already at 15% in New Hampshire and climbing.  The more people see of him, the better he’s going to do. 
 
The threshold issue is whether he becomes widely known enough fast enough.  If he does, I think he will win, as a majority of Democrats are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with Joe Biden as the 81-year old incumbent.  Voters will have their say starting on January 23rd.  
 
Dean is determined.  “My Dad died for this country in Vietnam, and I think about it all the time.  The least I can do is tell the truth and do my best on this campaign.”  
 
To hear my interview with Dean, click here.  To check out his campaign, click here.  I’ve donated to Dean and I hope you consider doing so as well.  And tell your friends!  It may not seem like it, but Dean could be the most truly transformative political figure in a generation.  

Andy Kim

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great. 

This week I had the opportunity to spend time with Andy Kim, who is running to be the next U.S. Senator from the Garden State.  I’ve known Andy for years; he’s a man of integrity.    

“I didn’t know I was going to run for the Senate.  But I heard Bob Menendez say, ‘I’m not going anywhere’ and it offended me.  It’s not his job.  It’s the people’s job.  And I knew I had to run to get Bob out and give the people a real choice.”

Since Andy declared, people have been rallying to his side.  More than 80% of New Jersey voters regard their political leadership as corrupt.  But they sense in Andy the opposite; an earnest public servant who spent nearly a decade in the State department before running for Congress and winning in a red-leaning district on the Jersey Shore. 

“No one thought I could win” that first Congressional race, Andy relates.  “I just got out there and talked to voters and wound up winning a very tight race.  4 years later I won by double digits.”  It turns out that most people just want a workhorse legislator working for the people. 

Now, he’s taking on an even bigger challenge running statewide.  “I’ve been criss-crossing New Jersey introducing myself to voters who don’t know me as well.  The energy has been electric everywhere I have gone.  People are tired and want a new generation of leaders who they actually believe are in it for the right reasons.  We deserve better leadership.  How is it that in a country of 330 million people we can’t find 535 people to fill these jobs who aren’t corrupt or self-serving?” 

Andy is motivated by his young family.  “My parents immigrated here 50 years ago for a better life.  Now are we going to leave a better life for our kids?  That’s what drives me.  The hardest part of doing this job is spending time away from my kids.  But I decided that I may not be the ‘tuck my kids in every night Dad,’ I’m going to be the ‘I did everything I could to fight for their future’ Dad.” 

A dedicated public servant like Andy would certainly be a dramatic turn from Bob Menendez, who has become an emblem of insider corruption.  Andy is as upright as it gets.  His campaign is a tremendous opportunity to turn the page on politics as usual in New Jersey.

To check out Andy Kim’s campaign go to https://andykim.com.  He’ll make a phenomenal Senator.  Let’s help him win.    

The Republican Field

Hello, I hope the holidays are going well for you and yours! 

The 4th Republican Debate is this week, which seems like a good time to revisit the Republican Field. 

The three candidates who will be onstage this week are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy.  Chris Christie seems on track to miss this debate.    

Nikki Haley has a ton of momentum – a recent town hall in South Carolina became a rally with overflow crowds.  Donors are coming her way.  Her campaign just reserved $10 million in television ads, the campaign’s first, in the early states.  The Koch brothers just endorsed her which should mean tens of millions of dollars in PAC support as well as more boots on the ground. 

The question is can she rise up to defeat Trump, who is still the prohibitive favorite?  Trump is polling at between 42 – 45% in the early states, and 60% nationally with Republicans. 

Here was always the worst nightmare – Trump has 40 – 50% of the Republican electorate while 4 other candidates break up the rest, leaving Trump to roll while the other candidates jockey to be his alternative and lose down the stretch.  It’s what happened in 2016 with Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. 

Will it happen again in 2024?  It looks like it.  Let’s take the remaining candidates in turn. 

Ron DeSantis has gone all in on Iowa.  If he does poorly there – anything worse than a strong 2nd place is a wrap - he will suspend his campaign.  But he’s certainly not getting out before Iowa votes. 

Vivek Ramaswamy has already committed $12 million in ad buys to both Iowa and New Hampshire.  That’s not something you do if you’re not going to be at the polls.  

Chris Christie has bet everything on New Hampshire. 

The best case for Nikki Haley is that Chris Christie drops out and endorses her, DeSantis drops out after Iowa and Ramaswamy drops out after New Hampshire.  Still, their presence will make it highly unlikely that she wins either of those states.  The odds are high that Trump will win both Iowa and New Hampshire, which will bring it down to South Carolina. 

South Carolina is a must-win state for Nikki Haley, as she was the popular governor there.  Current polling has Trump at 50% in South Carolina to 20% for Nikki Haley. 

Can Nikki Haley consolidate all other non-Trump voters in South Carolina AND eat into Trump’s base?  That’s an awfully tall order.  A lot of DeSantis or Ramaswamy fans will default to Trump. 

Is it good enough for Nikki Haley to finish a strong second in her home state, after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire?  Probably not. 

Nikki Haley has momentum and would make a very formidable opponent against Joe Biden in the general election; indeed I think she’d be a heavy favorite against Joe.  I believe contributing to Nikki Haley and urging people to vote for her is a fine idea for those of us who think Trump is a near-existential threat to American democracy.  

But unless something dramatic happens, expect Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee in 2024.  

Want to upgrade the Biden–Trump rematch?  In my opinion, the best chance to do so is Dean Phillips on the Democratic side, who is already at 10-15% in New Hampshire and rising fast.  Check out Dean and his campaign here.    

Healing

Hello, I hope you had a wonderful holiday with friends and family!  Evelyn and I ate too much. 
 
The holidays are a joyous time but also a difficult time for many Americans.  How do we make people happier and more mentally healthy?  That’s the subject of Thomas Insel’s book “Healing: Our Path From Mental Illness to Mental Health.”  Tom would know as the former director of the National Institute of Mental Health, a billion-dollar federal agency that funds mental health research.  Tom is also an advisor to the Good Life Movement, a public movement of action for mental health. 

Tom’s book is born of hard-won experience.  He recalls speaking to an audience about mental health research when an impassioned parent said, “You really don’t get it.  My 23-year old son has schizophrenia.  He has been hospitalized five times . . . and now he is homeless.  Our house is on fire and you are talking about the chemistry of the paint.”  Tom does get it.  His son had struggles with ADHD and his daughter with anorexia.  There is now broad acknowledgment that America has a mental health crisis on its hands, whether it’s anxiety and depression or deaths of despair.  Indeed, according to Tom 60% of mental illness goes untreated.
 
“Our current approach is a disaster on many fronts.  Not only is mental health care delivered ineffectively, but it is mostly accessed during a crisis and strategically focused only on relieving symptoms and not on helping people recover,” Tom writes. 
 
Tom discusses the closing of 95% of public hospital beds for the mentally ill coupled with the dramatic increase of prisons over the last 50 years.  As he puts it painfully, “America has invested in incarceration instead of rehabilitation” to the point that “hospitals have become prisons and prisons have become hospitals.”
 
So what works?  One thing with demonstrated effectiveness is Coordinated Specialty Care, which is when family education and support, case management, psychotherapy, medication management and work or education support are all coordinated together when someone has their first psychotic episode.  Too often, different parts of someone’s life don’t talk to each other, particularly if people stigmatize treatment. 
 
Tom sees a role for technology, but “technology will not and cannot replace boots on the ground.  We will need clinical experts, we will need hospitals and crisis teams, and we will need people who can listen when someone has turned off their phone or unplugged from social media . . .[we need] both high tech and high touch.” 
 
Tom diagnoses the failures of the marketplace – that we have a ‘sick-care’ system not a healthcare system that only prioritizes well-being after the fact.  Tom follows the numbers that show that our problems are tied together – that mental health is tied to our housing crisis, our poverty crisis and increasing disparities.  “This growing outcome gap is related to the growing income gap.” 
 
So what is the path forward?  Tom writes, “My hope for our country, after all I have seen over forty-five years in the field, is to redefine mental health care to include recovery and prevention.”  He argues for measuring better outcomes and reimbursing for mental health care and recovery the same way we do for physical injury. 
 
It’s encouraging to see someone from the highest levels of government acknowledge the need for fundamental new approaches.  “Recovery is more than a reduction in symptoms:  it is the return to a full and meaningful life . . . It’s the three Ps.  It’s people, place and purpose.”  We need more of these for more people, both before and after they struggle. 
 
For my interview with Tom about his book, click here.  For the Good Life Movement click here.  To improve our politics and meet some awesome people in your community, check out Forward here.  For a presidential candidate who wants universal healthcare, check out Dean Phillips here.  

A Broken Congress

Great news – the federal government won’t run out of money this week!  Rejoice! 
 
That is literally what qualifies as tremendous news out of Congress today.  Speaker Michael Johnson has managed to squeeze a funding resolution through his narrow to nonexistent majority with the help of a host of Democrats.  The same handful of conservatives who ousted Kevin McCarthy are now plotting their revenge. 
 
Keep in mind that this resolution doesn’t last long – it merely kicks the can down the road until January when different spending levels are to be hashed out. 
 
As a sign of the times, former speaker Kevin McCarthy elbowed Tim Burchett, one of his ousters, in the hallways of Congress this week.  I guess he’s not over it.    
 
If you understood what is happening – or not happening - in Congress today you’d be appalled.  There’s a rule called the Hastert Rule that says nothing gets brought to the floor unless a majority of the majority party supports it.  That means that every member of the minority party can’t bring meaningful bills to the floor.  One member said to me, “If you’re in the minority party and don’t have an important committee assignment, you might as well be a piece of furniture.” 
 
The days of legislators from both parties wrangling a bipartisan agreement are long gone.  Instead, members are often presented with legislation with minutes or hours to review it before being asked to vote for it – with the expectation that of course they won’t vote for it.  Worse yet, that even happens to majority members sometimes, where they too will be asked to vote for laws they’ve barely had time to review, and the expectation is that they’ll sign off.   
 
The parties are more concerned with scoring points on each other than delivering good policy.  2 members wrote, “Why is our status as members of different political parties seemingly more potent than our shared love for America, our many areas of agreement, and our shared responsibility to solve problems and get results?  Why are we more often opponents than colleagues? . . . Because the system is built to tear us apart.  In American politics, winning isn’t winning unless the other side is losing . . . “
 
Presidential candidate and third-term Congressman Dean Phillips said, “Members spend 10,000 hours a week dialing for dollars.  It’s insane.  I’m the only member who has declined to fundraise, which means I have a lot more time on my hands to serve my constituents instead of asking people for money.” Many Congressmen spend more time on fundraising than legislating. 
 
This week on the podcast, I interview Kevin Kosar, who worked at Congress on the policy side for years before joining a thinktank and penning the book, “Congress Overwhelmed: The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform.” 
 
“Congress has been reducing its policymaking capacities for decades, just as they’ve needed to do the opposite,” Kevin says.  “They got rid of the Office of Technology Assessment in the 90s, just before technology started to take off.”  Kevin’s concerns began years ago.  “I started seeing hearings degenerate into theatre and posturing instead of fact-finding, and said ‘uh-oh.’  And it’s gotten much worse since then.”
 
What can be done to improve things?  Here, Kevin offers some hope.  “What is crazy is that it’s totally up to Congress how to run itself.  There’s nothing in the Constitution about how Congress operates; the rules have just developed over time and now they’re making everyone miserable.  They can be changed at any time by Congress itself.” 
 
Meanwhile, expect more tension and drama in January as the fragile Republican majority gets put to the test again.  Hopefully no more elbows get thrown. 
 
For my interview with political scientist Kevin Kosar about how to fix Congress click here.  To see how Forward is working on improving our politics, click here.  To check out the Dean Phillips presidential campaign, click here – I think Dean may be our best chance to avoid a Biden – Trump rematch. 

Caution

A couple months ago, I attended an open house for a property that was for sale.  We weren’t really looking, but sometimes those things are fun.  This was a property that you could imagine buying as an investment. 

The problem was that the numbers didn’t make any sense.  At what they were asking for, the income generation of the property as a rental was maybe 3.5%.  Mortgage rates today are more than twice that.  And you can get higher interest rates on high-yield savings accounts.  I concluded that the listing price was about 40% over what I would deem a good value.  In the weeks since, they’ve cut the price multiple times, still to no takers. 

On the flip side, you have buyers who feel frozen out of the market because prices remain too high and no one can afford a mortgage.  A young couple who had been house hunting until recently said to me, “We’ve given up looking for the time being.” 

I talked to a friend in commercial real estate in New York – think office buildings.  “It’s a mess,” he says.  “Every day’s a new issue or problem.  And we aren’t fully occupied, not to previous levels.  I’d consider selling, but I don’t think we could get fair value, in part because no one is sure what fair value is now on an office building in Manhattan except that it’s a lot lower than the last appraisal.”  The level of commercial real estate debt that comes due in the next 18 months is over $1 trillion. 

I had lunch with a friend who invests in startups.  She told a similar story.  “There are dozens of companies that raised money in 2021 at valuations that now they can’t justify.  There are going to be massive haircuts of 50% or more, and those are the companies that are able to access new money.  A lot of them won’t be able to.”  She saw a lot of dying companies or depressed entrepreneurs in the not-so-distant future. 

There are strikes in the news every day, whether it’s the UAW or the actors, though I’m thrilled that the latter strike was just resolved.  One reason the media feels so shrill is that a lot of those companies are struggling to make money – even flagship names like the Washington Post.  Student loan repayment has kicked back in after a multi-year forbearance.    

The Biden Administration is touting rosy economic numbers – but most Americans don’t feel good about the economy even if their personal situation is all right. 

Now, you could say that commercial real estate is only a thing in certain cities, and most people don’t work at startups or for a striking union or as a journalist – all true.  Residential real estate obviously affects a lot of people, and there are a ton of Americans who would like to buy or sell a home but can’t do so because of elevated mortgage rates. 

Here’s the point - most Americans still feel that prices are too high and they are constantly under some sense of financial pressure.  And these are the good times. 

I’ve been an entrepreneur in flush times and in tough times.  I’m seeing tons of signs that tough times are around the bend. 

You operate differently in different periods.  In good times, you invest in growth.  In times of contraction, you batten down the hatches and streamline.  You make different kinds of bets.  And maybe, sometimes you settle for the smaller holiday party.  It feels to me that the latter kind of time is coming soon.    

What does this mean for our politics? 

Continuity will be a tough sell.  Someone – let’s say President Biden – running on how good things are will have a difficult time.  Particularly if things go from okay, which is where I think the economy is now, to a rough stretch. 

In my opinion, a lot of Democrats feel committed to Joe Biden out of a sense of fear and caution.  He’s at least familiar and comforting. 

But riding an 81-year old incumbent with a 39% approval rating and a message of “4 more years” may be the exact opposite of what the majority of Americans want to hear next year.  What seems like the safe bet may be the riskiest bet of all. 

---- 

Who could be a better bet for the Dems against Trump?  Check out Dean Phillips, a 54-year old Congressman from Minnesota whom I believe in. 

Election Day

Hello, I hope that your week is going well. 
 
Tuesday was a big Election Day – voters from around the country made their voices heard on issues big and small. 
 
Forward Party had a great showing with 5 new elected officials in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Connecticut! It’s a tremendous sign as to what we will be able to accomplish in 2024. 
 
Nationally, Democrats put up significant wins in Virginia, Kentucky and New Jersey – this has led some to think that Joe Biden is in great shape for 2024. 
 
The problem is that Joe Biden has singular qualities and weaknesses that voters are tuned into - primarily his age and his stewardship of the economy.  Voting for a young governor in Kentucky or a state rep in Virginia is a different thing than voting for an 81-year old incumbent President. 
 
Indeed, new polls came out this week saying that Trump is ahead in the swing states.  The drumbeat is consistent enough that a picture is starting to form. 
 
When I was running for President, I would often be asked about polls, which I would dismiss as missing the true energy and enthusiasm.  But when the voting started, the polls tended to be pretty accurate. 
 
I think the polls are accurate about Joe Biden’s standing; when I talk to Independent voters or young people about Joe, they often make a pained expression and shake their heads.  I don’t think betting that will change is the right approach. 
 
I’ve been supporting Dean Phillips as an alternative to Joe Biden.  Dean is what most Americans want: a sane, moderate 54-year old presidential candidate who will work to make things better.  I joke that Dean should change his name to Generic Democrat, because polls show that Trump loses to a generic Democrat by 8 points.
 
Why run an 81-year old with a 39% approval rating when you have a better choice standing right in front of you? 
 
Let’s take the right lessons from Election Day.  And work for better choices.

To check out Dean Phillips, click here.  To see what Forward is doing in your area, click here. 

2024

It’s less than one year until Election Day 2024 – and the calendar is coming up on us quickly.  The Forward Party is engaged with local candidates around the country this week, which is awesome. 
 
I get asked all of the time what I think will happen in 2024 in the presidential race.  Let’s take a look first at the Republicans, as the third debate takes place on Wednesday.  The 5 candidates who have qualified are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Tim Scott, all debating in the shadow of Donald Trump.  Mike Pence dropped out last week, a sign of things to come. 
 
In aggregate polling, Donald Trump has a 46 point lead over Ron DeSantis, 59% to 13%. Nikki Haley is next at 7.5%.  She’s doing better in the early states but is still 40 points behind Trump.  Trump is the prohibitive favorite to be the Republican nominee as long as he’s walking around and eligible to run. 
 
Who would win between Trump and Biden in the general? 
 
Polls are roughly even.  Joe Biden’s chances of winning rose two weeks ago based on two things.  First, RFK Jr. left the Democratic primary and went Independent.  Polling consistently shows RFK Jr. in low double-digits and taking more from Donald Trump than Joe Biden in the general election; it’s why you’re going to see a lot of negative stories about RFK Jr. from the conservative press from now until Election Day.  In a close election, the 1 or 2 percentage points being sucked away from Trump could be significant. 
 
The second thing that you might have missed was Cornel West breaking up with the Green Party.  I thought Cornel West would take 1-3% as the Green Party candidate, mostly from Joe Biden.  Now, I don’t think he makes the ballot in more than a handful of states and will more or less be a non-factor (perhaps by design).  Each of these developments amounts to a 1 or 2 point swing to Biden. 
 
However, there are still ominous signs for Biden.  Recent polling shows Trump with a small lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.  The Biden campaign was so concerned that they spent millions of dollars on positive advertising in some of these states, a highly unusual and aggressive move this early in the cycle.  The ads didn’t seem to have any effect.  Apparently, “Bidenomics” is not a winning message.  Biden’s approval ratings are stuck between 39 and 42% and economic concerns are persistent with voters. 
 
Over two-thirds of voters are also concerned about Joe’s advanced age.  If you ask a random person about Joe Biden’s re-election bid, they are likely to simply shake their head and say, “He’s too old.”  Perhaps running an 81-year old with a 40% approval rate isn’t a winning formula. 
 
Last week a new candidate arrived on the scene making this very case – Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota.  Dean is a moderate Democrat who has been exhorting other Dems to run against Joe Biden out of concerns over his electability.  When no one else took on the challenge, Dean decided to run himself. 
 
I’m personally very bullish on Dean’s campaign and see him as our best chance to avoid a Biden vs. Trump rematch.  You can check out Dean’s campaign here.  I’ve donated and hope you consider doing so too. 
 
Most people will initially dismiss Dean, though there is reason to believe that he’ll be competitive.  The truth is we won’t really know until New Hampshire votes in January – Joe Biden will be competing as a write-in candidate there.  If Dean runs very strongly in New Hampshire, how will that impact other states?  What will the media response be?  It’s essentially a 3-month sprint.  If numbers are to be believed, Dean is speaking for the majority of voters, which bodes well for his growth trajectory. 
 
Barring a Dean Phillips insurgence, which would be truly epic, the truth is that both major parties are poised to field historically weak candidates.  A generic Republican – e.g., Nikki Haley - would, I believe, defeat Joe Biden.  A generic Democrat – one not saddled with doubts about age and vitality – would defeat Donald Trump. 
 
Can either party shake free of the inertia of a Trump – Biden rematch that most Americans don’t want?  Whichever party can do just that will almost certainly win; I am excited for the first poll that shows Dean Phillips defeating Trump by 8 points, simply by virtue of being a 54-year old moderate Democrat.  Winning doesn’t seem to be the top priority of either party anymore though, much as they might protest otherwise. 
 
Yet underneath the thin layer of conformity and careerism is the will of the American people, hungry for better options.  I’d love to see that hunger satisfied on either side.  We have 3 months to make it happen. 
 
To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here.  For the holidays I am offering to personalize and sign books to use as a gift for that special someone!  Click here and we will get them out by the holidays. 

Dean Phillips

The 2024 presidential field has a new contender – Dean Phillips, 3-term Democratic Congressman from Minnesota.   

Dean is 54, which makes him a full 26 years younger than Joe Biden and 22 years younger than Donald Trump.  After attending Brown University he got his MBA and ran a family business and then a gelato company – Talenti - that was bought by Unilever.  He ran for Congress in a district that hadn’t had a Democrat in almost 60 years.  His slogan was, “Everyone’s invited.” 

I first met Dean last year at an American Promise event that was about overturning Citizens United.  “I’m the only member of Congress who refuses to dial for dollars,” Dean said.  “I kind of thought you were here to pass laws, not fundraise.”  As you can imagine, I liked him immediately.  

Months later, Dean called me in part to relay his concerns about the Democratic primary, or lack thereof.  “I support Joe, but I feel like we are playing a very dangerous game in 2024 riding on his health.  One bad week and we hand the country to Trump.”  

He’s not alone in his concerns.  Nearly 70 percent of Democratic voters believe Biden is too old to serve a 2nd term, and 67 percent say they’d prefer another candidate.  

So why hasn’t there been a primary challenge with numbers like that, outside of Marianne Williamson, RFK Jr. (since turned Independent) and Cenk Uygur?  

The DNC has closed ranks behind President Biden. There won’t be any primary debates and South Carolina – which Joe won – was moved to first in the primary season. The word has gone out to prominent Dems like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and JB Pritzker to wait until 2028.  And the press hasn’t treated previous challengers to Biden with any legitimacy – indeed, the press has taken turns attacking or ignoring anyone who has tried to interrupt Joe’s glide path.  

To Dean’s credit, his first choice was not to run.  He openly went around to other figures saying, “Someone more prominent than me should run against Joe, for the good of the country.”  Only when no one else bit did he really move toward taking the plunge.  “If he were 15 to 20 years younger it would be a no-brainer to nominate him, but considering his age it’s absurd we’re not promoting competition but trying to extinguish it.”  

Will Dean actually force a genuine competition?  

There are a number of reasons why I think Dean Phillips could do just that.  

First, candidates with a reason to run do better.  Dean is genuinely on a mission to provide the country a positive alternative to a Trump-Biden rematch that he views as disastrous.  He’s not someone who had this planned as a next step.  He’s intrinsically motivated and it will show. 

Second, he’s a good guy and a strong campaigner.  When people see him and hear him they’ll like him.  He likes other people too.  Believe it or not, that actually makes a difference.  

Third, he’s rich, with a net worth of $50 - $80 million.  He’ll have the resources to compete.  

Fourth, the press is bored.  Dean is getting mainstream press coverage like this Atlantic profile and I think that will continue.  

Fifth, it’s possible that Dean emboldens another major Democrat to join the primary, which would kickstart a genuine process.  Mission accomplished.  

Last, Dean is actually giving the American people what they want in a presidential candidate – a sane, moral 54-year old who is a real person.  How many people do you know who have wished for just that sort of figure to appear?  

Now, it’s going to be an uphill climb as every establishment Democrat has piled behind Joe even though they are nervous about his age in private.  There’s a hierarchy that is being upset and it’s not going to take it well.  But the mission is noble and has the potential to deliver us into a better future. 

I know Dean and admire him.  I’ve donated to his campaign.  You can donate here.   

Is it possible to improve upon the Trump – Biden rematch that so many of us fear is inevitable?  At least one person is staking his reputation on the answer being yes, and I hope for all of our sakes that he’s right.  I’ll be working to make it so.