Democracy’s Last Stand
Hello from New Hampshire one day before the primary! It’s no exaggeration to say that Tuesday could be democracy’s last stand.
On the Republican side, Nikki Haley is trailing Donald Trump by 16 points. I’ve spoken to a bunch of New Hampshire voters and I think that polling reflects the result on Tuesday. There are Trump supporters everywhere I go and most of the Haley supporters I run into are non-Republicans considering crossing over just to vote.
Donald Trump held a rally in Concord Friday and Tim Scott – whom Nikki Haley appointed to the Senate in South Carolina – endorsed him. The Trump Train is alive and well in New Hampshire.
In my view, the real action is on the Democratic side as Joe Biden is running against Dean Phillips who is climbing fast. I endorsed Dean last week and have been campaigning for him in the Granite State.
I’ve had dozens of conversations with New Hampshire voters and you can see them waking up in real time. “I saw a TV ad two days ago, and then Googled Dean yesterday, and now I’m thinking about voting for him.” I heard that over and over. The energy around Dean’s campaign is going up on an almost hourly basis.
Among the comments I’ve heard:
“I’m voting for him. We need something new.”
“I like that he’s actually campaigning here in the State.”
“I’m glad there’s a Democrat running who isn’t Joe Biden.”
“I didn’t realize that voting in the Democratic primary was important. I’m going to vote for Dean and my husband is too.”
I’m not sure where that nets out in terms of the vote on Tuesday, but I do know the support for Dean is real and growing fast. The crowds are getting bigger everywhere he goes.
The Biden camp is already trying to downplay the results, saying Joe isn’t on the ballot and campaigning. But they’re worried and they’re investing real resources. They’ve sent a small army of officials, including a majority of the Cabinet to campaign in the state. Their PAC has invested over $1.25 million on the Joe Biden write-in campaign and held over 20 get-out-the-vote events to try and make sure the President wins by a comfortable margin.
Tuesday may be democracy’s last stand. If the results go to script, both primaries could effectively be over. New Hampshire is likely to be Nikki Haley’s strongest state, and if she loses it’s possible she drops out rather than lose in her home state February 3rd, as South Carolina actually favors Trump more than NH.
And if Joe Biden draws 80%+ support, the Trump vs. Biden nightmare matchup is just about set, a matchup I fear Joe will lose, thus delivering us to Trump’s return in November.
But if Dean Phillips puts up a significant number, the American people could wake up to the fact that we CAN upgrade from the battle of the 80-year olds. We can defeat Trump and turn the page to a new era of American politics.
What kind of number does Dean need on Tuesday to kickoff a competitive primary? No one is quite sure. Dean says anything over 20% would be ‘magnificent’ given that he started with zero just 10 weeks ago. SE Cupp says 30% would be ‘undeniable’ to journalists trying to measure the race. 42% would be historic, as that’s the vote Eugene McCarthy got in ’68 that forced LBJ to drop out days later.
Barack Obama and Bill Clinton got 81% and 84% in their reelection bids in New Hampshire, so anything a lot lower than that is a bad look for Joe.
If Dean gets above 20% that’s a very big sign that the Democratic electorate wants to have a real competition. That’s why I’m here in New Hampshire. Here are my asks for you:
1. If you have any friends in New Hampshire, reach out to them and ask them to vote for Dean. It’s our best hope and very important. If you live near New Hampshire, come join us it’s a lot of fun!
2. If you can, donate to Dean’s campaign at dean24.com. The campaign needs every bit of support it can get. Evelyn and I donated and hope that you do too.
3. Tell all of your friends that a real race is on! Amplify it far and wide. Most people still haven’t heard about Dean and we need to change that.
Will democracy deliver us a genuine choice on Tuesday that can invigorate our future? I’ll be here in New Hampshire doing my best to make it happen along with Zach, Carly, Conrad, Tom, Jon, Shane, Julian, Trivette, Katie, Ali, Kait, Don and a lot of other awesome people. Let’s do it. The stakes are incredibly high.
