2024

Happy New Year!  2024 is going to be a huge year. 
 
Huge good, or not-so-good?  This week on the podcast I welcome back old friend Zach Graumann to make some predictions for the New Year. 
 
On the economic front, I predict that the mild recession that we avoided in 2023 will come to pass in 2024.  There are signs of consumer weakness in credit card and auto loan delinquencies and failure to repay student loan debt among other early indicators, and the colossal imbalances in commercial real estate have yet to be reckoned with.  The locked up residential real estate market won’t help.  Startups are in survival mode and cash is scarce.  At some point, the negative feelings about the economy will spill into behavior, and I think that hits in ’24. 
 
There are times to take risks and times to pull back.  I think this year is the latter in terms of the economy. 
 
Of course, any downturn makes the political climate rockier for an incumbent.  Zach and I make the bold prediction that Joe Biden won’t be the Democratic nominee.  This is self-serving as Zach is working on the Dean Phillips campaign, but Joe Biden’s polling collapse and advanced age have stirred unease and questions that will only heat up.  Will an alternative emerge from within the Democratic Party?  New Hampshire votes on January 23rd and will be the first big indication whether we are in for a coronation or a competition.  We, and most Americans, would prefer the latter. 
 
I also predict that third party candidates – RFK Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, Joe Manchin?? – will get their highest share of the national vote since 1992, when Ross Perot got 18.9%. With 75% of Americans thinking we are on the wrong track and 65% despairing about the two-party system, a lot of people will be willing to vote differently this year. 
 
(In case you’re wondering what Forward is up to in ’24, we will be supporting local candidates in swing states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina to boost the turnout for those who aren’t extremists, perhaps helping the country avoid an authoritarian returning to the White House.  Good plan!)
 
Zach and I both believe that 2024 is the year that AI hits your workplace in earnest, as it becomes part of the way organizations function.  Last year firms hired AI consultants.  This year they start implementing.  That will have mixed effects to say the least.  I talked to a CIO who said that AI is already replacing coders offshore, and is accelerating and assisting unskilled coders making them more productive.  On the other hand, some experienced coders have become less relevant.  So some people are winning and some are losing.  This will play out differently in different orgs, but it’s coming to a workplace near you.    
 
We also think that 2024 will be the AI election cycle, with deepfake videos and audio recordings hitting down the stretch just as voting starts.  You might want to turn away from your social media feed starting in October or so, as the incentives to inflame or misinform voters will be sky-high and the information environment with be toxic and out-of-control.  Other countries have started seeing this, and we will too. 
 
These are strange and challenging times – but there will be positive opportunities.  One of them is to turn the page by getting behind a 54-year old upstart presidential candidate challenging the 81-year old unpopular incumbent; imagine having a young dynamic President who doesn’t owe the machine anything in power.  That’s how I’d like the year to end.  It hinges on the voters of New Hampshire making their voices heard on January 23rd.

For my convo with Zach about the year ahead, click here.  To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here – he may be our best hope for ’24.  To join Forward in boosting positive local candidates, click here.