Dean’s Path
Hello, I hope that you’re doing great.
As you likely know, I’m supporting Dean Phillips’ presidential run for the Democratic nomination. I feel he would be a vastly superior alternative to Joe Biden in November and would actually defeat Trump rather than lose to him.
Many have written off Dean’s ability to spring an upset on Joe Biden based on Dean’s 20% showing in New Hampshire, which was a shockingly impressive result given only 11 weeks of campaigning as a newcomer. Dean also had an environment where all of the independents went to the Republican primary for what they thought was the Haley vs. Trump showdown.
Can Dean still win? Yes he can, and here’s how.
South Carolina votes on February 3rd. That is Joe Biden and James Clyburn country and Dean will probably get in the low single digits. Anything he does there is gravy.
The next Democratic primary is Michigan on February 27th. This will be the big opportunity for Dean, and it’s a good one.
Joe Biden is struggling in Michigan. A recent poll there had him losing to Trump by 8 points, with another Democrat – Gretchen Whitmer – beating Trump by 4. That’s a 12-point swing, and it hasn’t gone unnoticed. Several Michigan Democratic candidates are saying to reporters that they are concerned about running with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.
One community specifically angry at Joe Biden in Michigan is the Arab American community; they are a traditional Democratic population that is openly looking for a Biden alternative.
Dean is a good fit for Michigan. He plays hockey and will feel familiar.
The odds are high that Nikki Haley will be out by February 24th, which is the date of the South Carolina primary. That could leave Dean Phillips as the last man standing between us and the rematch from hell. Independents in Michigan can vote in either primary, and will all pile into the Democratic primary as the Republican primary will be over.
Dean doesn’t need to necessarily win either – if he puts up a very significant number in Michigan, that could kick off a competitive dynamic and a geyser of support heading to Super Tuesday in March.
Now, this is going to be very difficult, as Michigan is a big state. Dean will need about $10 million in support to be able to communicate effectively statewide that there’s a real primary and Joe Biden has competition. He will have to connect with voters there and build a movement in 4 weeks in a limited national press environment. The odds are long and a lot has to go right.
But his path is real. In many ways, Michigan is the new New Hampshire, our big chance to shift the political future of this country.
Dean went from 0 to 20% in 10 weeks. Can he continue to grow in Michigan?
A lot can happen in a month. Let’s get to work.
Go to Dean24.com to help and tell your friends in Michigan and South Carolina!
