Pass the Torch

“81-year-old man holds nation hostage – film at 11.” 

It has been 10 days since Joe Biden’s disastrous debate.  8 days later he sat for a 22-minute interview with George Stephanopoulos that didn’t convince anyone of anything but perhaps the President’s obstinacy and disdain for polls. 

I think this is Joe Biden’s final week as the Democratic nominee.  Today, Congress returns to session and dozens of swing state legislators will convene to determine how they can best keep their jobs and get Joe Biden off of the top of the ticket.  I personally spoke to at least one more member who is going to call on Joe to step down in the coming days.  Respected Senator Mark Warner is assembling a mutiny among Senators.  More and more donors go public each day.   

The boat is springing leaks more quickly than the Biden team can patch them – and no one is scared of retribution anymore.  For the swing state legislators, what frightens them is being part of a blowout in November.   

A journalist compared the fissure between what Democrats are saying in public and what they are saying in private to the behavior of Republicans under Trump – they would bemoan his venality and then pledge allegiance as soon as a camera went on.  Joe isn’t Trump and it's age not morality, but the pattern remains. 

The same journalist observed that it is only the timidity of the Democrats that gives Joe any hope, and that if they did start speaking their mind it would be clear that Joe has lost his party.  

There are things we can do.  Let your local legislator know you feel that Joe Biden should step aside.  Friends of mine have helped to organize a petition - Pass the Torch, Joe – that I have signed.  I’d encourage you to do so as well and spread the word.  Let's get #passthetorch to be the phrase on everyone's lips.  

There is still time to swap Joe out, get behind a new nominee and defeat Trump in November.  Joe Biden said that he’d step aside if the Lord Almighty asked him to do so.  Well, the Lord might not be available, so we will have to do.  

Looking forward to a new nominee,

Independence Day

Happy 4th of July!  I hope that you are spending the holiday with family and friends. 

What a time in America.  Every day comes with new figures calling for President Biden to step aside as the Democratic nominee. 
 
I said on the podcast Monday with Zach that I believe Joe Biden will indeed step aside.  And I think it will happen fairly quickly.  The first Democratic member of Congress, Lloyd Doggett of Texas, has called for it and I don’t detect any professional repercussions.  Dozens of swing-state officeholders are poised to follow him.  The tone of Jim Clyburn, Nancy Pelosi and others has shifted from their earlier declarations of support to allowing for a mini-primary if Joe isn’t the nominee and saying concerns are legitimate.
 
Watching the press jump on this like a dog tearing at a bone has been fascinating.  I have gotten requests from a dozen outlets.  We should thank our lucky stars that Joe Biden’s team called for this early debate ahead of the convention, else there would have been a tank job in the Fall with no recourse. 
 
Zach and others have floated a theory that someone on the Biden team knew he would have a terrible debate and this was their way of swapping him out.  I don’t buy it.  His team actually thought that he would reassure voters – the internal gaslighting is strong.  Instead, the debate debacle will end with Joe stepping aside as the nominee while likely staying in office. 
 
So what next?  The major question is whom Joe decides to throw his weight behind.  The vast majority of DNC delegates are pledged to Joe and, though they aren’t obligated to do what he says, would be inclined to follow his lead.  I don’t think Vice President Harris will inherit the mantle unopposed, and we are in for a hurried mini-primary with various contenders raising their hand and being winnowed down via televised debates and votes/polling ahead of the convention.  The convention is in mid-August, so we are talking about perhaps the most action-packed 5 weeks that any of us can recall if this comes to pass.  The other most likely scenario is that Joe and the party consolidate behind Kamala to try and keep things together.  I’d prefer the mini-primary as I think it would energize people and be more open. 
 
It would be stressful and uncertain, but a sprint with any hope is vastly preferable to a futile death march, which is what President Biden now represents. 
 
The press is inflamed because they feel they were lied to by President Biden and his handlers about Joe’s condition and health.  It’s truly wild how every major Democrat had been parroting the “Joe’s sharp as a tack in meetings!” talking point until the debate laid the truth bare.  I appreciate Dean Phillips so much as the one Democratic officeholder willing to say that the emperor had no clothes on.  If only more had listened 6 months ago. 

I am sad for President Biden as anyone would be for an 81-year old who is losing his energy and clarity.  But we should be angry at the Democratic Party for enabling him for so long and putting us in position to give the reins of government back to Donald Trump. 
 
Buried among the headlines this week was a new Gallup poll that has Independents as a majority – 51% - of Americans for the first time in decades.  More and more of us have been staring at the dysfunction of our two major parties with chagrin.  Not coincidentally, Forward has received an influx of interest and support this week.  This 4th of July, let’s start declaring our independence from the two major parties that are clearly less concerned about us and more about who can avoid a race to the bottom and cling to power. 
 
You know who else has called for Joe Biden to step aside?  Adam Frisch, the Forward-endorsed Congressional candidate in Colorado.  See him and the other Forward-aligned candidates here.  John Curtis won his primary in Utah and John Avlon did the same in New York. 
 
Let’s hope a certain 81-year old officeholder makes the right decision soon.  Have a great Independence Day. 

The Debate

Well, many people’s worst fears were realized on Thursday, as President Biden had the most dismal and depressing performance in the history of presidential debates.

I had seen President Biden live in February. He did not look good. He was old and shuffling, his skin translucent. His delivery of remarks was uneven and performative – when he says something that is supposed to have emotion behind it but it seems like an old guy reading lines instead of genuine sentiment.

Still, I figured that his team had figured out a regimen to make him seem pumped up and energetic for 90 minutes – they seemed to have it pretty well managed for the State of the Union. I thought if they give him a week of rest and preparation Joe would probably be able to channel some of his vigor from his many debates of 2020, and he’d be genuinely fired up to debate Trump.

I was wrong. It was a doddering disaster.

One thing that was always in the back of my mind - a debate is a LOT harder than giving a speech off of a teleprompter.  You have to have command of the material and some messages memorized.  You have to project energy in response to your opponent and in some cases the moderators.  Let’s say I had you memorize a 60-second message to camera.  You’d have to be able to bust that out on command after 80 minutes of back and forth.  It’s a lot of cognitive loading. 

If someone asked me to give a good speech off of a teleprompter, I could do that with almost no notice.  If someone asked me to do a great job at a televised debate it would take some runway.  This was a much higher hurdle to clear than the State of the Union, and Joe Biden essentially faceplanted on the first lap.

So what happens now?

I’m clearly in the camp that Joe Biden should step aside and let the Democrats nominate someone else.  A ticket of well-liked governors would be a much tougher foil for Trump than Joe and Kamala at this point.  I got the hashtag #swapJoeout trending at one point.

The New York Times, the Atlantic, and even CNN have all piled on to make the same case.  It’s been a remarkable shift.  It’s tough to imagine a successful Democratic campaign that has lost the media to this degree.

But the Biden camp is digging in.  The flagship Democrats – Obama, Harris, Newsom, Clyburn, Jeffries, Schumer – are circling the wagons, at least publicly.  Donors are being managed and told to stay steady.  Biden is campaigning away to try to demonstrate vitality.  They have internalized the lesson – that has been true in the past – that if you hunker down you can weather any storm.  Each passing day gives them more distance from the debate. 

Still, behind the scenes some of the other candidates-in-waiting are staffing up and preparing. 

Most debates don’t change a race fundamentally.  This one is an exception – Americans saw firsthand that the President isn’t up to the job.  He is running an unwinnable race.  He is making the case that he is running to defend democracy, but then clinging to the office. 

Joe Biden’s superpower has been that he’s a good man who will do right by the country.  He is doing wrong by the country now.  The question is whether anyone around him will have the courage and moral clarity to save him, and the rest of us, from himself. 

If the debate made you wish for a new party in American politics, check out Forward – we are growing every day and got a lot of new recruits this week.  

What the People Know

“Americans are good when you meet with them face-to-face.” 
 
It’s true.  As you can imagine I’ve met thousands of Americans over the past five years criss-crossing the country, and can say with confidence that most Americans are good, generous, cordial people willing to give you and others the benefit of the doubt.  I’ve met any number of people who knew they disagreed with me politically – they were Trump supporters in Iowa for example – but were perfectly happy to ask a question or have a beer with me in a friendly manner. 
 
Things break down when you’re not face-to-face, and instead are interacting via cable news narratives or worse yet, social media.  I think of these platforms as a funhouse mirror that is refracting images of us to each other so we start to see caricatures on the other side instead of human beings. 
 
Unfortunately, these forces are now bleeding into reality.  Americans’ attitudes are becoming further entrenched, and the polarization is translating into both real relationships and actions. 
 
“I met a farmer who left the Republican Party in Ohio and all of his friends stopped talking to him,” said Frank Barry, the author of the new book “From Back Roads to Better Angels:  A Journey Into the Heart of American Democracy.”  Frank took his wife on a seven-month sojourn across the country in an RV hoping to glean a sense of what everyday Americans are thinking about the state of the union.  As you can imagine, it was a profound journey filled with insights from people of all walks of life all around the country. 
 
“Americans sense that we are becoming more divided, and they’re deeply concerned about it,” Frank relates.  “And it’s not just a perception, the divides are becoming more real.  When you ask them whether we will overcome our divides and come together, they say, ‘yes, we will.’  But they have no idea how or what to do.” 

This is pretty consistent with what I hear too.  Frank came back from his exploration both more optimistic and concerned.  Optimistic because, yes, Americans are good people when you sit with them one-on-one.  But very few have a sense of positive actions to take or a community to join, and more people are becoming subject to the forces that are driving us apart. 
 
In my fondest hopes, Forward becomes the answer to both of these questions.  Imagine if that farmer in Ohio had some new people to talk to, and people understood that if enough of us band together we can resist the forces of dehumanization and reform our institutions so that they aren’t rewarded for making us angry about our problems. 
 
It’s one of the strange facets of this time.  We are a good people.  Many of our leaders are actually well-intended.  Yet we are on a path that very few of us are happy about we can’t seem to change.  And there are billion-dollar organizations that are paving the road and profiting at every turn. 
 
Interestingly, one of the things that Frank believes is the answer to what ails us is non-partisan primaries and election reform.  “It’s one of the most direct ways to reduce polarization.”  It made me glad that a fellow traveler like Frank has arrived at the same conclusions.  I’ve spoken to more and more people lately who have woken up to the fact that political reform is the only way out. 
 
For my interview of Frank click here.  For his book click here.  To check out what Forward is doing, click here – John Avlon and John Curtis have their primaries on the 25th so let your friends in Long Island and Utah know! 

Where We Are

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great. 
 
If you haven’t seen it, I highly recommend Scott Galloway’s recent TED Talk, and not just because I make a couple cameos.  He hits on many themes of my presidential campaign concerning negative trends in the economy and our standard of living, particularly for young people.  I often said on the trail, “If you’re young you are entirely justified in being either angry or sad, because we have left you with a real mess and also the bill.” 
 
Things have gotten far worse for young people over the past five years, as our country has ramped up debt very significantly while making things like housing dramatically less affordable.  It’s one of the great megatrends in my thinking over the last five years. 
 
1.     Things are getting progressively worse for most Americans based on affordability, and that needs to change;
 
2.     Our institutions are designed to resist change in favor of the status quo that serves vested interests quite well; and
 
3.     We need to build a movement that changes the institutions or goes around them if we are going to change #1. 

During my presidential campaign we activated almost half a million donors and millions more who were eager to see something big change in favor of people.  You are probably among that number if you’re reading this – thank you!  Our campaign fell short, and now I’m grinding away at changing #2.  Someone said to me today, “I just figured out why you’re going so heavy on ranked choice voting, and I’m on board.” 
 
Every day, people come up to me and say “Run again!” in part because they are fed up by what we are getting.  At the same time, if I had run again in this context I would likely do more harm than good.  It’s one reason I was so glad to back Dean Phillips, who I saw as a responsible way to upgrade from a Biden versus Trump rematch and give us all a shot at a better future.  Watching the way the media and the Democrats sidelined Dean was a stark reminder of #2 above, despite the fact that Dean was clearly benevolent and a Democrat in good standing before he made the decision to put country ahead of party. 
 
Forward has now gotten behind candidates like John Avlon, John Curtis, Shelane Etchison and Adam Frisch, all of whom I’m very excited about.  There are also local candidates in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Florida and around the country.  I’m glad to do good where I can. 
 
But the backdrop of Scott’s talk and my presidential campaign was of a system that has gotten increasingly dysfunctional and punitive for the average American and young people in particular.  I was with Tim Ryan from Ohio last week, and he put it like this:  “If I lost my job at the plant or my town has been going downhill for years and you come and tell me GDP has had a good couple quarters, it doesn’t make me want to vote for you.”  Ohio of course has gone from a swing state to quite red in the past decade-plus. 
 
I think that Trump would make a disastrous President, much worse than he was last time.  I’m angry and sad that he may be on the verge of returning, in part because the Democrats have set the stage for it. 
 
What do you do in an age of declining institutions?  You take them over if you can, and build new ones as quickly as possible. 
 
To check out what Forward is doing including the candidates above, click here.  If you are in position to donate click here – we are very grateful for your support! 
 
For those of you who follow the podcast, we are doing a special Q&A episode – submit your question at mailbag@andrewyang.com and we will answer the good ones on air.  

My TED Talk is now up to 1.4 million views and counting - thanks for helping get it out there!  

The Future of RCV

A few years ago I was on a Zoom that would change my life.  I was meeting with several advocates for Ranked Choice Voting.  I asked them, “Who is the most prominent advocate for RCV?” 

They said two words that stunned me: “Probably you.” 

I wasn’t even an elected official.  But it dawned on me that it’s very difficult for someone who’s inside the system to champion a change that enables more competition and dynamism.  It’s not exactly the kind of thing most incumbents get excited about. 

I’ve been a fan of Ranked Choice Voting ever since I found out about it – but it has now become perhaps the most important change I think we can make, particularly when combined with non-partisan primaries.  It would make it so that our leaders actually have to listen to us and do right by us. 

Shortly after that Zoom I was asked to join the Board of FairVote Action by its founder and CEO, Rob Richie.  FairVote is a non-profit that enables and champions Ranked Choice Voting around the country.  It has helped 27 straight cities – including places like New York and Seattle – adopt Ranked Choice Voting over these past years. 

“People are catching on that these electoral reforms are crucial to achieving the future we want,” says Meredith Sumpter, the new CEO of FairVote whom I interview on the podcast this week.  Meredith grew up in Alaska stocking grocery shelves.  “I grew up in an environment where you just got things done and didn’t talk about who believed what.  I later went into business and worked as a diplomat, jumping back and forth between business and public service.  I’ve been running an inclusive capitalism organization for the past several years.  Everything kept leading me to systems change, which has now led me to FairVote.  Companies need government to be more effective in order to lead to a more inclusive economy, and Ranked Choice Voting is the reform that will make government more accountable and responsive.” 

Meredith arrived at FairVote while trying to make the economy more inclusive, but others I know arrived here because they cared about climate change or, in my case, poverty.  “It’s been awesome meeting movement partners these past two months,” says Meredith.  The FairVote gala in New York last week served as both a celebration of Rob Richie and Cynthia Terrell for their 32 years of work with FairVote as well as a passing of the torch to Meredith. 

“I feel like I’m arriving at the right time as the movement is just growing in momentum.  There’s a chance we triple the number of states who are using ranked choice voting statewide from 2 to 6 this November.  Nevada, Colorado, Idaho and Montana could all join Maine and Alaska.”  She’s right that this is a huge time for those of us who think that changing the way we vote is our best path forward.  Ranked Choice Voting is spreading faster than most realize.  Let’s continue to speed it up. 

For my interview with Meredith click here.  To check out FairVote, click here.  To join Forward which is backing RCV initiatives around the country, click here.  And for my TED Talk which now is up to 1.3 MM views and counting click here – people tell me it was an excellent explainer of Ranked Choice Voting and why it matters.  

Is Local News the Answer?

America is more polarized than ever – and one big reason why is that local newspapers have disappeared.  

Over 2,000 local papers have gone out of business in the last 15 years – thirteen hundred communities in the US now have no local news source at all.  Local papers tend(ed) to be much more straight-up-the-middle, as there aren’t that many ways to report on the bridge needing repair or how the local high school team is doing. 

As you can imagine I’ve interacted with hundreds of journalists over the past number of years, and I can say with confidence that local journalists are much less interested in trying to stick it to you and much more invested in getting the word out about something that might matter to the people in town.  As one reporter put it, “We report things responsibly because we are going to see the person the next day.”  I sat with dozens of editorial boards of papers in New Hampshire and Iowa.  Half of those papers are now closing or closed and over 30,000 local journalism jobs have disappeared over the past number of years.  

Fewer people run for office after a local paper goes down and the cost of municipal financing goes up – apparently you don’t care as much about the kind of deal you get if no one is reporting on it.  I spoke to a city councilman who saw a marked difference in the behavior at meetings when a reporter stopped coming; people started saying and doing things they never would have done with a reporter present.  The quality of government goes down.  

Also, it turns out that one’s media diet corresponds very strongly to, for example, one’s propensity to support Trump.  Trump is underwater with newspaper readers by a whopping 49 points while he’s up among social media users by 4 points, cable news watchers by 8 points and among YouTubers by 16.  Newspaper readers are more likely to have trust in institutions. 

There is a scrappy organization – the Rebuild Local News Coalition – that is trying to reverse the tide.  I spoke to its founder and President, Steve Waldman, on the podcast this week.  Steve and I have known each other for a while – we both went to Brown University and he started Report for America a number of years ago.  “There is growing momentum around supporting local papers from both sides of the aisle.  It turns out it’s a source of civic pride for most towns, the same way a sports team might be in another community.  And everyone loves small businesses.”  Steve notes that legislators at both the state levels and federally are now rallying around tax credits for both local papers and the small businesses that advertise in them. “Fixing this problem at the local level might cost $1 billion a year.”  

Steve notes that the big tech companies have a special responsibility as both beneficiaries of some of the content that these newspapers generate as well as the cause of their demise.  “It’s fair and reasonable to ask the biggest tech companies – the ones that have benefited the most from this new reality – to spend a tiny portion of their revenue to solve the significant problem they helped create.”  Steve sees more optimism around the Community News and Small Business Support Act than he’s seen in some time. 

The decimation of local papers is an underrated cause of the decline in our politics.  Could something as simple as having a reporter in your town show up to things and write them up in an objective way help restore our sense of trust?  I personally am convinced that many towns could support a local publication if it didn’t need to enjoy double-digit profit margins and a boffo growth rate.  Some things aren’t meant to be profit engines – but are still positives that lead to a better way of life.  Communities telling stories about themselves falls in that category. 

For my interview with Steve Waldman of the Rebuild Local News Coalition click here.  To see what Forward is doing in your state click here.  For more about the media landscape check out my book Forward which goes into its impact on polarization in some detail.  

My TED Talk is up to 1.2 million views – please do share it with anyone you think would enjoy it!

The Trump Conviction

Trump was convicted of falsifying business records to cover up a payment to his former mistress this week in New York.  It makes him the first former President or major presidential candidate to be a convicted felon. 

I’ve been ambivalent about the charges brought against Trump.  I think that they helped fuel his dominance in the Republican primaries and ensure that he remains the center of attention at all times.  The New York case rested on something of an aggressive application of legal theory.  People who think that he is being treated differently because he’s Donald Trump have a point. 

On the other hand, I think he did do the things he’s accused of.  I prefer accountability.  And I’m someone who thinks he would be a catastrophe as President for a second term, so if his legal troubles reduce the chances of his victory that doesn't upset me.   

This brings us to the heart of the matter – what does this mean and what happens next?  His supporters have rushed to his side, sending $34 million in new donations, 30% from new donors.  The judge will deliver sentencing in July, which will be immediately appealed.  Some voters on the fence who dislike Biden will find it unpalatable to vote for a convicted felon.  It’s hard to imagine this being a good thing for Trump in a race that will be decided at the margins.

It’s doubtful that Trump will see jail time, as the sentence might not include it and it will be appealed.  Trump’s other trials have already been delayed until next year. 

Prior to the verdict, I thought that Trump had an advantage in November based on the polling and the fact that Biden’s path to victory has narrowed to needing to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, each of which is neck-and-neck.  Now, I think the race has closed as some independents will be reminded of what they disliked about Trump four years ago, much of which has faded from memory. 

Those who think that this verdict signals the end to Trump’s presidential bid will be disappointed though.  In this era, everything becomes normalized quickly.  And though it may be unthinkable to some that Trump could resume occupying the Oval Office as a convicted felon, it remains, in my mind, more likely than not.  Our institutions aren’t going to save us from Trump.  If he doesn’t win in November, it’s going to be because we saved ourselves.  

Shelane and Adam

Hello, I hope that you are enjoying Memorial Day weekend with family and friends.  I’ll be not far from a grill myself. 
 
Forward announced a series of endorsements this past week for Congressional candidates!  John Avlon (NY-1) and John Curtis running for Mitt Romney’s Senate Seat in Utah may be familiar to you.  The other two candidates are Shelane Etchison in North Carolina and Adam Frisch in Colorado. 

 Shelane Etchison is running as an Independent for Congress in North Carolina’s 9th district.  Her bio reads like that of a movie heroine.  She served as a Special Operations soldier in the U.S. Army for 11 years, deploying to Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.  After her service, she attended Harvard and returned to North Carolina, where she had been stationed in the Army.  Shelane is running out of a deep sense of patriotism: “Our democracy is struggling and needs fresh voices in Congress unbridled by partisan politics.”  Shelane would be an independent voice in the House and her victory could make national news.    
 
Adam Frisch is running in Colorado’s 3rd district – you might remember Adam as the candidate who lost to Lauren Boebert by only about five hundred votes in ’22.  Adam’s strength this time daunted Boebert to the point where she switched districts.  Now he’s running again to provide a sane, principled voice in Congress unafraid of crossing party lines.  I’ve spent time with Adam – we supported him two years ago – and he’ll make a phenomenal member of Congress. 
 
People complain all of the time, “I wish better people ran for office.” These are exactly the kind of people that you want to run.  I hope that you will consider supporting Shelane, Adam, John and John.  Let your friends know about them.  Let’s help good people who want to reform the system win. 
 
My TED Talk is now over 1,000,000 views – thank you for sharing it!  I get messages about it every day.  Forward is revving up for the summer and hope that you are too.  Enjoy the weekend. 

GoodParty.org

Hello, I hope that you are doing great.  Hard to believe that Memorial Day is just a week away! 

I spent part of the week out West in California.  One of the best aspects of trying to make the world a better place is meeting other people who are trying to do the same thing.  One of those people is Farhad Mohit, whom I interview on the podcast this week. 

Farhad’s story is incredible – he immigrated to the U.S. from Iran as a child to California.  Straight out of business school Farhad founded the consumer review website Bizrate and later the shopping search engine Shopzilla, both of which became big successes.  He then founded Flipagram, which was acquired in 2017 by ByteDance and combined with Musical.ly to create a little-known app called TikTok.  “I started one of the largest and fastest growing mobile apps of all time.” 

Farhad’s mind went to bigger challenges.  He concluded years ago that the American political system wasn’t going to lead to good things.  “It was years ago at TED.  I knew that the two existing parties weren’t going to lead to a desirable future for humanity.  I thought, why don’t we just start a new party?  But then I realized who I am and what I do.  I build tech tools.  Why don’t I start an organization that will build free tech tools for anyone running as an Independent so they can compete?” 

That organization became GoodParty.org, which Farhad founded and now describes himself as ‘full-time volunteer.’  “We want to empower the young brand new candidate to be able to compete with the establishment.  The majority of young people in particular don’t like the two parties.  Want a press release or fundraising email?  Our AI can produce that in moments.  Our toolkit is getting better all of the time.  And it’s totally free to any independent candidate.  More viable independent candidates mean less money in politics, less corruption, and more solutions.” 

Farhad is a patron of the arts and also founded Gifted Savings, a non-profit that is giving investments to adults in Ohio and high school seniors in Michigan so that they can create opportunities for themselves.  No wonder we get along. 

Yes, there’s a benevolent techie looking to level the playing field of politics.  “I have the benefit of having made enough money so I can just focus on what’s important for the future of humanity.  The symbol of GoodParty.org is a heart of love.  That’s what the world needs.”  GoodParty.org and Forward are teaming up to assist dozens – perhaps hundreds – of local candidates this cycle.  Can we deliver what most people want?  Farhad has made history a few times already – I wouldn’t bet against him doing it again. 

For my interview of Farhad click here.  To check out GoodParty.org tools click here.  To join Forward click here.  My TED Talk is now up to more than 650,000 views and I get positive messages about it every day – you can see it here.  Thank you for spreading the word!