The Trump Conviction
Trump was convicted of falsifying business records to cover up a payment to his former mistress this week in New York. It makes him the first former President or major presidential candidate to be a convicted felon.
I’ve been ambivalent about the charges brought against Trump. I think that they helped fuel his dominance in the Republican primaries and ensure that he remains the center of attention at all times. The New York case rested on something of an aggressive application of legal theory. People who think that he is being treated differently because he’s Donald Trump have a point.
On the other hand, I think he did do the things he’s accused of. I prefer accountability. And I’m someone who thinks he would be a catastrophe as President for a second term, so if his legal troubles reduce the chances of his victory that doesn't upset me.
This brings us to the heart of the matter – what does this mean and what happens next? His supporters have rushed to his side, sending $34 million in new donations, 30% from new donors. The judge will deliver sentencing in July, which will be immediately appealed. Some voters on the fence who dislike Biden will find it unpalatable to vote for a convicted felon. It’s hard to imagine this being a good thing for Trump in a race that will be decided at the margins.
It’s doubtful that Trump will see jail time, as the sentence might not include it and it will be appealed. Trump’s other trials have already been delayed until next year.
Prior to the verdict, I thought that Trump had an advantage in November based on the polling and the fact that Biden’s path to victory has narrowed to needing to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, each of which is neck-and-neck. Now, I think the race has closed as some independents will be reminded of what they disliked about Trump four years ago, much of which has faded from memory.
Those who think that this verdict signals the end to Trump’s presidential bid will be disappointed though. In this era, everything becomes normalized quickly. And though it may be unthinkable to some that Trump could resume occupying the Oval Office as a convicted felon, it remains, in my mind, more likely than not. Our institutions aren’t going to save us from Trump. If he doesn’t win in November, it’s going to be because we saved ourselves.
