The Trump Conviction

Trump was convicted of falsifying business records to cover up a payment to his former mistress this week in New York.  It makes him the first former President or major presidential candidate to be a convicted felon. 

I’ve been ambivalent about the charges brought against Trump.  I think that they helped fuel his dominance in the Republican primaries and ensure that he remains the center of attention at all times.  The New York case rested on something of an aggressive application of legal theory.  People who think that he is being treated differently because he’s Donald Trump have a point. 

On the other hand, I think he did do the things he’s accused of.  I prefer accountability.  And I’m someone who thinks he would be a catastrophe as President for a second term, so if his legal troubles reduce the chances of his victory that doesn't upset me.   

This brings us to the heart of the matter – what does this mean and what happens next?  His supporters have rushed to his side, sending $34 million in new donations, 30% from new donors.  The judge will deliver sentencing in July, which will be immediately appealed.  Some voters on the fence who dislike Biden will find it unpalatable to vote for a convicted felon.  It’s hard to imagine this being a good thing for Trump in a race that will be decided at the margins.

It’s doubtful that Trump will see jail time, as the sentence might not include it and it will be appealed.  Trump’s other trials have already been delayed until next year. 

Prior to the verdict, I thought that Trump had an advantage in November based on the polling and the fact that Biden’s path to victory has narrowed to needing to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, each of which is neck-and-neck.  Now, I think the race has closed as some independents will be reminded of what they disliked about Trump four years ago, much of which has faded from memory. 

Those who think that this verdict signals the end to Trump’s presidential bid will be disappointed though.  In this era, everything becomes normalized quickly.  And though it may be unthinkable to some that Trump could resume occupying the Oval Office as a convicted felon, it remains, in my mind, more likely than not.  Our institutions aren’t going to save us from Trump.  If he doesn’t win in November, it’s going to be because we saved ourselves.  

Shelane and Adam

Hello, I hope that you are enjoying Memorial Day weekend with family and friends.  I’ll be not far from a grill myself. 
 
Forward announced a series of endorsements this past week for Congressional candidates!  John Avlon (NY-1) and John Curtis running for Mitt Romney’s Senate Seat in Utah may be familiar to you.  The other two candidates are Shelane Etchison in North Carolina and Adam Frisch in Colorado. 

 Shelane Etchison is running as an Independent for Congress in North Carolina’s 9th district.  Her bio reads like that of a movie heroine.  She served as a Special Operations soldier in the U.S. Army for 11 years, deploying to Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.  After her service, she attended Harvard and returned to North Carolina, where she had been stationed in the Army.  Shelane is running out of a deep sense of patriotism: “Our democracy is struggling and needs fresh voices in Congress unbridled by partisan politics.”  Shelane would be an independent voice in the House and her victory could make national news.    
 
Adam Frisch is running in Colorado’s 3rd district – you might remember Adam as the candidate who lost to Lauren Boebert by only about five hundred votes in ’22.  Adam’s strength this time daunted Boebert to the point where she switched districts.  Now he’s running again to provide a sane, principled voice in Congress unafraid of crossing party lines.  I’ve spent time with Adam – we supported him two years ago – and he’ll make a phenomenal member of Congress. 
 
People complain all of the time, “I wish better people ran for office.” These are exactly the kind of people that you want to run.  I hope that you will consider supporting Shelane, Adam, John and John.  Let your friends know about them.  Let’s help good people who want to reform the system win. 
 
My TED Talk is now over 1,000,000 views – thank you for sharing it!  I get messages about it every day.  Forward is revving up for the summer and hope that you are too.  Enjoy the weekend. 

GoodParty.org

Hello, I hope that you are doing great.  Hard to believe that Memorial Day is just a week away! 

I spent part of the week out West in California.  One of the best aspects of trying to make the world a better place is meeting other people who are trying to do the same thing.  One of those people is Farhad Mohit, whom I interview on the podcast this week. 

Farhad’s story is incredible – he immigrated to the U.S. from Iran as a child to California.  Straight out of business school Farhad founded the consumer review website Bizrate and later the shopping search engine Shopzilla, both of which became big successes.  He then founded Flipagram, which was acquired in 2017 by ByteDance and combined with Musical.ly to create a little-known app called TikTok.  “I started one of the largest and fastest growing mobile apps of all time.” 

Farhad’s mind went to bigger challenges.  He concluded years ago that the American political system wasn’t going to lead to good things.  “It was years ago at TED.  I knew that the two existing parties weren’t going to lead to a desirable future for humanity.  I thought, why don’t we just start a new party?  But then I realized who I am and what I do.  I build tech tools.  Why don’t I start an organization that will build free tech tools for anyone running as an Independent so they can compete?” 

That organization became GoodParty.org, which Farhad founded and now describes himself as ‘full-time volunteer.’  “We want to empower the young brand new candidate to be able to compete with the establishment.  The majority of young people in particular don’t like the two parties.  Want a press release or fundraising email?  Our AI can produce that in moments.  Our toolkit is getting better all of the time.  And it’s totally free to any independent candidate.  More viable independent candidates mean less money in politics, less corruption, and more solutions.” 

Farhad is a patron of the arts and also founded Gifted Savings, a non-profit that is giving investments to adults in Ohio and high school seniors in Michigan so that they can create opportunities for themselves.  No wonder we get along. 

Yes, there’s a benevolent techie looking to level the playing field of politics.  “I have the benefit of having made enough money so I can just focus on what’s important for the future of humanity.  The symbol of GoodParty.org is a heart of love.  That’s what the world needs.”  GoodParty.org and Forward are teaming up to assist dozens – perhaps hundreds – of local candidates this cycle.  Can we deliver what most people want?  Farhad has made history a few times already – I wouldn’t bet against him doing it again. 

For my interview of Farhad click here.  To check out GoodParty.org tools click here.  To join Forward click here.  My TED Talk is now up to more than 650,000 views and I get positive messages about it every day – you can see it here.  Thank you for spreading the word! 

Thank you

Hello, hope that your Spring is off to a great start.  It’s hard to believe summer unofficially starts in two weeks on Memorial Day. 

My TED talk has been viewed over 500,000 times in the last six days!  Thank you to those of you who have shared it around - it’s gotten tremendous feedback.  I’m hopeful that it opens people’s eyes to the fact that we can – and must - actually innovate our way out of this political era. 
 
It’s been a constant source of frustration to me that for every 100 stories about how bad things are, so little energy is dedicated to actual solutions that might improve our situation.  I hope to help change that. 
 
This week on the podcast I sit down with Zach Graumann to talk about the process leading up to my talk.  How do you get asked to do a TED Talk?  Does it pay?  What do they make you do beforehand?  I hope people enjoy the behind-the-scenes look.  It was an awesome experience. 
 
Now, it’s going to be time to build on the newfound energy and awareness.  Forward will be endorsing a series of candidates shortly, including folks like John Avlon and John Curtis.  And I’ll be attending the Fairvote Awards in New York City on June 3rd – would you believe there’s actually an event that benefits Ranked Choice Voting?  If you’re in New York and would like to attend click here.  
 
Thank you for keeping up with me and believing in our capacity to make things better.  I met up today with a volunteer for Forward – he’s one of our state leaders in Florida.  He expressed a desire for direction and resources. 
 
It’s a balance, wanting to build a movement that is people-driven and ground up based in communities.  Yet most people actually want a vision and some things to achieve.  Most of us thrive on having a mission. 
 
An old friend from Iowa reached out after seeing the TED Talk and said, “I see the vision now.  I want to help.”  I hope that this week has given some new people a sense of what’s possible if enough of us come together.  Let’s build as fast as we can; time is precious, the most precious thing we have.   
 
For my podcast interview, click here.  To join Forward click here.  To see the TED Talk if you haven’t already done so click here – and please do share it with friends!  It’s been a powerful conversation starter.  

My TED Talk is Out!

Great news – my TED Talk came out today!  I’m pumped to have it out in the world as I believe it could be the best case made yet to the biggest audience for a different approach to curing American politics.

Every day we are bombarded by messages about how divided and polarized we are – yet there is a real and concrete path to improve the incentives to make America more rational right now.
 
I open my talk with why American politics are so dysfunctional and why the incentives are so corrupted, and then break down how the changes made to the primary elections in Alaska in 2020 led to better processes and outcomes just two years later.  Making similar changes to the primaries in 5 to 10 other states would cost only 2% of what the 2 parties are going to spend this year inflaming and aggravating us.  How much is being spent to bring us back together or improve the system?  This is the highest-leverage way to solve the biggest problems facing humanity: only by making our government’s incentives rational can we make progress on addressing poverty, climate change, AI and other major challenges. 
 
If you have 10 minutes you can watch the TED Talk here.  I hope you agree that it’s worth sharing.  Please do forward it to friends and family who would have an interest – let’s get the numbers up and spread the word!  If you’re on social media please amplify it as well.  There are two places the talk will likely be viewed:  on TED’s website and on YouTube. 
 
I’ll confess that it’s my hope that this talk will unlock new resources for the movement.  For people in the fortunate position to fund ballot initiatives, Unite America is aggregating funds right now.  To join the reform movement, consider joining the Forward Party, or as I call it in my talk, “Team Overhaul the Incentives.” 
 
TED’s tagline is “Ideas Change Everything.”  Can a video seen by millions catalyze real change?  Let’s find out.  Hope you’re as excited about this way to get the message out as I am!   

A Hidden Opportunity

Hello, I hope that the Spring is off to a great start for you and yours.  I just spoke at the Hudson Valley Ideas Fast this weekend and it was a lovely experience. 
 
There’s a lot of frustration with our political process right now, for good reason.  Congress, after months of delay, just passed an aid package.  But it’s important to take advantage of opportunities to improve our leadership when they do come up.  Andy Kim is one example – he’ll make a tremendous U.S. Senator from New Jersey as a true voice of the people. 

There’s another massive opportunity to install a high-quality U.S. Senator that most everyone is overlooking.  That is the race to replace Mitt Romney in Utah. 
 
Mitt Romney announced last year that he would not run for re-election, citing his advanced age and a desire to pass the torch to the next generation.  As you’d imagine, this set off a rush of candidates to replace him.  11 candidates have declared in the Republican primary.  Of these, the vast majority – 8 - have endorsed Donald Trump. 
 
The ninth?  John Curtis, a four-term member of Congress.  John is his own person.  “If they’re expecting me to be Mitt Romney, I’m going to disappoint them.  If they’re expecting me to be Mike Lee, I’m going to disappoint them.  I’m John Curtis, and I’m really happy with who that is and what I’ve been able to do and accomplish.”  Among those accomplishments, John founded the Conservative Climate Caucus for Republicans who believe that climate change is a problem and want to help address it.  John has his beliefs and is willing to stand up for them. 
 
“I thought long and hard about running for this office.  And I became convinced that it’s the best way I can serve.”  John and I had lunch together recently and he struck me as someone of character and leadership.  Despite his service in Washington, he seemed very circumspect in taking on this race.  Other members of Congress I’ve spoken to – even those who disagree with him on some fronts – rave about his ability to work together. 
 
The Republican primary in Utah is on June 25th.  Who would you rather have, a Romney-esque leader who believes in climate change and isn’t bending the knee to Trump or one of the eight candidates who has already endorsed Trump?  This is a rare opportunity because, in such a crowded field, someone like John could emerge from the primary and be on a glide path straight to the Senate. 
 
One frustration I have with Democrats is that they act like all Republicans are the same, sometimes while actually backing election deniers in primaries to increase their own chances in the general.  Here, the opportunity is to back a non-Maga Senator who can help provide a bulwark against the extremes of his own party.  That’s a big deal.  And the Democrats will be uncompetitive in this particular race in November.    
 
I’ve donated to John and I hope you will consider doing so as well.  Let your friends in Utah know about his race.  We have to take advantage of opportunities when they arise and leaders like John don’t come along every day.    
 
To see what Forward is up to in your area click here.  To better understand why our political process is so dysfunctional, pick up Forward: Notes on the Future of our Democracy.  And I just found out my TED Talk comes out on May 7th next week – pumped to share it with the world! 

Welcome to my TED Talk

Hello, I hope that your weekend was great. 

I spent the past week at TED gearing up for my talk and delivering it – the topic was America’s political system, what is going wrong, and how we can improve it. 

For those of you who don’t know much about TED, it’s a conference that convenes a host of thinkers in technology, science and culture.  The videos from people’s talks are widely circulated – it has 24 million subscribers on YouTube for example.  A realistic expectation of the number of people who will wind up seeing this talk is probably 1 to 3 million, with a possibility of it being significantly higher - some talks get up to 6 million+ views.  

I’ve spoken on America’s political system any number of times and feel very comfortable with the subject matter.  But having a tailored talk with slides on a tight time frame still required some thought and work.  The TED team asks that you rehearse and present to them multiple times in the run up to the conference.  The venue holds about 1,700 people, and there’s one ‘take.’  So you definitely feel some pressure.  Evelyn flew out to join me for the occasion – she’s never attended TED so it’s new to her. 

The night before reminded me a little bit of a night before a presidential debate, where it’s tough to get to sleep.  I woke up thinking, “Today’s the day!”  I was eager to hit the message.    

Backstage was restless.  Scott Galloway was up after me, so we shared some time together.  I heard my name called and bounded to the stage. 

I’m glad to say the talk went great.  The feedback was phenomenal.  I got a standing ovation.  People came up to me afterward to congratulate me.  I definitely opened some eyes and minds to a different approach to the problems that ail us.  One person said to me afterwards, “Thank you.  I feel like the future of civilization may rest on whether your efforts succeed.”  Others asked, “How can I help?”  It felt awesome to deliver on what I knew was a big opportunity to get the word out. 

TED releases the talks after the conference at a rate of one per day.  My best guess is that mine will probably go out sometime in May.  

Can a TED talk change the world?  Obviously that’s a tall order.  But I’m eager to find out and grateful to have had a chance.  I felt an energy that I’ve only felt on the best of days.  I can’t wait for you to see it.  Thank you for getting me here.  Let’s keep going. 

To see what Forward is doing around the country, click here.  I’ll be speaking at the Hudson Valley Ideas Fest with Stephen Dubner, Coleman Hughes, Rikki Schlott, Xochitl Gonzalez, Neil Parikh and more on April 27th in Rosendale, New York.  A TED talk might break out. 

A Declaration of Independents

Hello, I hope that you’re doing well.  I’m on the way to TED right now to speak about our political system and how it can be improved – it should be a great opportunity.  I expect the talk to be made public sometime in May.  

When I ran for office, I ran as a Democrat.  It seemed practical and, to some extent, natural.  But there were significant distortions that accompanied the primaries I participated in – there were certain interest groups and schools of thought that were highly overrepresented. 

One person who figured this out even before he ran for office is Greg Orman.  “The two parties have spent their time and treasure protecting Americans that we are for more different and divided than we actually are,” writes Greg in his book, “A Declaration of Independents.”  I interview Greg on the podcast this week. 

Greg started a successful business in Kansas and saw that many voters felt underrepresented.  He decided to run for the Senate in Kansas in 2014.  “I initially looked at running as a Democrat because I was heading against a Republican incumbent.  But I soon realized that there was dogma on both sides that I didn’t agree with.  I’ve never believed there were only two possible answers to any problem.  Many issues are more nuanced than that.”

Greg went around the state and just started talking to voters.  He got more and more support with his straightforward, commonsense approach.  “Why is it that it’s harder and harder for Americans to get ahead, but it’s also simultaneously more common for people to be using their time unproductively?  Something is going wrong here.”   Greg believed that the two-party system was a big reason why things were getting worse for Kansans, not better. 

Greg went up and up in the polls.  He even pulled ahead of the incumbent Senator, which shocked the establishment.  It got to the point where the national Republican Party sent John McCain and a parade of national figures to Kansas and spent $17 million to make sure they kept the seat.  They defined Greg as a Democratic puppet and attacked him in various ways.  He still wound up with 42.5% of the vote in the general election, a stunning level for an Independent candidate.  For context, Ross Perot got 19% in 1992. 

“I was running against the entire establishment, and the system came to Kansas and did its best to shut me down,” Greg said.  Today, he supports independent candidates and continues to make the case.  “I back those who are trying to create a new choice in American politics.  Almost half of Americans are Independents at this point, and we are being shut out as our future and that of our kids is increasingly jeopardized.” 

As you can imagine, Greg is one of the role models for independent candidates in the whole country, and I’m proud to say that he is supportive of our work at Forward.  In some ways, the enemy is ideology.  “True independence comes not through adherence to a rigid ideology but through putting our country ahead of a political party . . . independence from the party line, from the special interests that control both major political parties through campaign cash, and from extremists who control each party’s primary process – that’s what the country needs to move forward.” 

For “A Declaration of Independents” click here and my interview with Greg click here.   To see what Forward is doing for candidates around the country of any party, click here.  I’ll be speaking at the Hudson Valley Ideas Fest with Stephen Dubner, Coleman Hughes, Rikki Schlott, Xochitl Gonzalez, Neil Parikh and more on April 27th in Rosendale, New York.  If you’re in the area or know someone who is, maybe I’ll see you there! 

The Impact of Tech

A few years ago, some producers approached me about doing a TV show called “The Future of . . . with Andrew Yang.”  The theme was I would talk about the future of education one week, healthcare or transportation the next, etc.  I thought it could be an interesting way to get some points out and so was glad to explore the possibility.  Then, a few weeks later they came back with some mildly surprising data.  “So . . . we tested this out with a bunch of viewers, and it turns out that they like you, but they don’t like the future.  So we’ll try to think of something else.” 

Jonathan Haidt had a new book come out last week called “The Anxious Generation,” that makes a compelling case that social media has been behind the surge in anxiety and depression among young people, particularly girls.  He recommends curbing smartphone and social media use for minors and making schools phone-free. 

This past week on the Daily Show, Jon Stewart did an extended segment on AI coming to replace workers.  I received a number of messages saying, “He sounds just like your presidential campaign four years ago!” 

If you think about the future, there’s something of a veil of negativity.  I wrote in the War on Normal People that we will naturally trend toward either Mad Max or Star Trek in a future of either scarcity or abundance.  If you look at movies, TV and the news, it’s clear that most people think our future is more likely to be dystopian than the opposite. 

AI is going to change civilization on a scale that may be unprecedented.  This week on the podcast, I interview Jo Ling Kent, senior business and tech correspondent for CBS.  She said, “Right now it’s clear that the U.S. and China are developing their own AI domains with different data and algorithms in each.  It’s not direct competition so much as two different worlds.” 

In the Daily Show segment, Jon Stewart showed various legislators – generally of advanced age – evincing ignorance about how to approach AI.  Our lack of confidence in government is fueling the pessimism about the future that many of us feel. 

How do you feel about the future?  And what would it take to make you optimistic? 

When I ran for President I had what many felt was a utopian vision, starting with Universal Basic Income.  Most people back then thought it was impossible that our government could send checks to tens of millions of Americans.  Then we did a version of that in 2020 and halved child poverty in 2021 with an enhanced child tax credit.  The child tax credit fell prey to political dysfunction a year later, but demonstrated that we can meaningfully reduce poverty if our leaders have the will. 

Some experts project that AI will increase global GDP by 10% by 2032 – or as much as ~$10 trillion.  Where will that wealth go? 

What’s ironic is that we are succumbing to scarcity just at the moment when abundance – Star Trek – might actually be a possibility.  It turns out that if you don’t believe in government, it’s hard to imagine that the benefits of innovation will be broadly shared. 

Why don’t we believe that tech is going to help?  It’s because we don’t believe in our leaders.  We don’t believe in our capacity to mold our own future.  We may not believe in ourselves. 

Can that change?  That’s the core question on which everything depends.

For my interview with Jo Ling Kent click here.  To join Forward to reform our political system, click here.  For my book on the future we face, “The War on Normal People” click here.  It includes a positive vision that we could yet achieve.  

A Reflection

Hello, thank you for choosing to read this note.  The truth is that a lot of people – 200,000+ - receive this newsletter every week, and a shockingly high percentage of you actually click it and read it!  I’m grateful.  Your time is precious.   

I try to take this responsibility seriously by sending you something interesting and actionable – I like doing things.  If I can’t do anything about it, it’s less interesting to me. 

Of the 3 non-fiction books I’ve written, each was tied to doing something.  The first, “Smart People Should Build Things,” was the case I made for Venture for America, the non-profit I started in 2011 and ran for 6 years.  We operated in 15 cities primarily in the Midwest and the South.  VFA continues on to this day with a new CEO and has helped empower hundreds of young entrepreneurs and businesses. 

My second book, “The War On Normal People,” catalogued my deep concerns about the impact of technology and automation on the workforce and pushed for solutions and an evolution of the economy, including Universal Basic Income.  It doubled as the basis for my presidential campaign and became a major bestseller; several colleges adopted it into their curriculum and it was translated into at least 5 other languages.  I founded a lobbying organization, Humanity Forward, in 2020 that continues to push for some of the ideas in “The War On Normal People,” including antipoverty measures like an enhanced child tax credit. 

My third book, “Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy,” was about the dysfunction of our political system and the media and the need for reform.  I launched the Forward Party in 2021 and it merged with two other pro-democracy organizations the following year.  I’m now Forward’s co-chair and we operate around the country backing ballot measures, voting reforms and positive aligned candidates.  My colleagues at Forward include Gov. Christie Todd Whitman, Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey and many others and just last week we launched statewide Treasurer and Attorney General candidates in Pennsylvania. 

I joke that each book I write tells me what I’m going to do for the next three to five years.  (I also co-wrote a novel, “The Last Election,” with Stephen Marche that is an exception to this rule, meant as part entertainment, part warning.)

This month I’m speaking at TED on the American political system and how to improve it.  I’m hopeful that this will result in another few hundred thousand people understanding better what is holding us back, and maybe – just maybe – a few of them will sign up to do something about it.  It could be with Forward, or Unite America or Fairvote (a Ranked Choice Voting non-profit I’m on the Board of).  I’m now convinced that our political system needs a revamp before we can meaningfully tackle any of our biggest long-term problems. 

I’m not unmindful of the immediate threat.  If you follow me, you know I think Trump would be a disaster in a second term.  I’ll be working to reduce the odds of Trump winning in different ways.  Initially, it was by trying to swap in a different Democratic nominee whom I thought would be a stronger foil for Trump.  Now, it will be by boosting the non-Trump turnout by backing sensible local candidates in key swing states like Pennsylvania via Forward. 

I’m also going to be supporting individual candidates whom I think will help us navigate this time – folks like John Avlon in NY, John Curtis in Utah and Dave Min in California.  In all of these cases, the alternative is a Trump loyalist or aspirant to that role. 

The overall mission is to help make good things happen and prevent bad things from happening. 

Another candidate I’ve been supporting is Andy Kim.  This past week, Tammy Murphy dropped out of the New Jersey Senate race, clearing the way for Andy to almost certainly be the next U.S. Senator from the Garden State.  This was an enormous win – Andy will be a phenomenal upgrade and replacement for the corrupt Bob Menendez, he of the gold bars and corruption indictments. 

Tammy was the establishment favorite as the Governor’s wife – the entire New Jersey Congressional delegation endorsed her as did many of the biggest County Chairs.  But Andy captured the imagination of the grassroots Democratic voters in NJ, winning most of the county convention mini-elections.  He fundraised competitively.  Tammy looked at the numbers and saw that she was going to have to go negative and cut a big personal check to the campaign to try and defeat Andy.  She – to her credit – decided not to go nuclear.  Andy now has a clear path, and will make a phenomenal U.S. Senator.  He’s as upright as it gets. 

I co-hosted an event for Andy and some of you donated and got the word out about him.  Were we the difference-makers?  It’s possible. 

Sometimes, the good guys win or something good happens because we do something about it. 

That’s why I write.  Thank you for keeping up with me through thick and thin.  Let’s do more in ’24.  And as long as you keep reading, I’ll keep writing. 

Click here to check out John Avlon, John Curtis, Dave Min or here to see the Forward chapter in your area.  You can also check out Humanity Forward and andrewyang.com for books, the newsletter and the podcast.