The Republican Field

Hello, I hope the holidays are going well for you and yours! 

The 4th Republican Debate is this week, which seems like a good time to revisit the Republican Field. 

The three candidates who will be onstage this week are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy.  Chris Christie seems on track to miss this debate.    

Nikki Haley has a ton of momentum – a recent town hall in South Carolina became a rally with overflow crowds.  Donors are coming her way.  Her campaign just reserved $10 million in television ads, the campaign’s first, in the early states.  The Koch brothers just endorsed her which should mean tens of millions of dollars in PAC support as well as more boots on the ground. 

The question is can she rise up to defeat Trump, who is still the prohibitive favorite?  Trump is polling at between 42 – 45% in the early states, and 60% nationally with Republicans. 

Here was always the worst nightmare – Trump has 40 – 50% of the Republican electorate while 4 other candidates break up the rest, leaving Trump to roll while the other candidates jockey to be his alternative and lose down the stretch.  It’s what happened in 2016 with Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. 

Will it happen again in 2024?  It looks like it.  Let’s take the remaining candidates in turn. 

Ron DeSantis has gone all in on Iowa.  If he does poorly there – anything worse than a strong 2nd place is a wrap - he will suspend his campaign.  But he’s certainly not getting out before Iowa votes. 

Vivek Ramaswamy has already committed $12 million in ad buys to both Iowa and New Hampshire.  That’s not something you do if you’re not going to be at the polls.  

Chris Christie has bet everything on New Hampshire. 

The best case for Nikki Haley is that Chris Christie drops out and endorses her, DeSantis drops out after Iowa and Ramaswamy drops out after New Hampshire.  Still, their presence will make it highly unlikely that she wins either of those states.  The odds are high that Trump will win both Iowa and New Hampshire, which will bring it down to South Carolina. 

South Carolina is a must-win state for Nikki Haley, as she was the popular governor there.  Current polling has Trump at 50% in South Carolina to 20% for Nikki Haley. 

Can Nikki Haley consolidate all other non-Trump voters in South Carolina AND eat into Trump’s base?  That’s an awfully tall order.  A lot of DeSantis or Ramaswamy fans will default to Trump. 

Is it good enough for Nikki Haley to finish a strong second in her home state, after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire?  Probably not. 

Nikki Haley has momentum and would make a very formidable opponent against Joe Biden in the general election; indeed I think she’d be a heavy favorite against Joe.  I believe contributing to Nikki Haley and urging people to vote for her is a fine idea for those of us who think Trump is a near-existential threat to American democracy.  

But unless something dramatic happens, expect Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee in 2024.  

Want to upgrade the Biden–Trump rematch?  In my opinion, the best chance to do so is Dean Phillips on the Democratic side, who is already at 10-15% in New Hampshire and rising fast.  Check out Dean and his campaign here.