2024
It’s less than one year until Election Day 2024 – and the calendar is coming up on us quickly. The Forward Party is engaged with local candidates around the country this week, which is awesome.
I get asked all of the time what I think will happen in 2024 in the presidential race. Let’s take a look first at the Republicans, as the third debate takes place on Wednesday. The 5 candidates who have qualified are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Tim Scott, all debating in the shadow of Donald Trump. Mike Pence dropped out last week, a sign of things to come.
In aggregate polling, Donald Trump has a 46 point lead over Ron DeSantis, 59% to 13%. Nikki Haley is next at 7.5%. She’s doing better in the early states but is still 40 points behind Trump. Trump is the prohibitive favorite to be the Republican nominee as long as he’s walking around and eligible to run.
Who would win between Trump and Biden in the general?
Polls are roughly even. Joe Biden’s chances of winning rose two weeks ago based on two things. First, RFK Jr. left the Democratic primary and went Independent. Polling consistently shows RFK Jr. in low double-digits and taking more from Donald Trump than Joe Biden in the general election; it’s why you’re going to see a lot of negative stories about RFK Jr. from the conservative press from now until Election Day. In a close election, the 1 or 2 percentage points being sucked away from Trump could be significant.
The second thing that you might have missed was Cornel West breaking up with the Green Party. I thought Cornel West would take 1-3% as the Green Party candidate, mostly from Joe Biden. Now, I don’t think he makes the ballot in more than a handful of states and will more or less be a non-factor (perhaps by design). Each of these developments amounts to a 1 or 2 point swing to Biden.
However, there are still ominous signs for Biden. Recent polling shows Trump with a small lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. The Biden campaign was so concerned that they spent millions of dollars on positive advertising in some of these states, a highly unusual and aggressive move this early in the cycle. The ads didn’t seem to have any effect. Apparently, “Bidenomics” is not a winning message. Biden’s approval ratings are stuck between 39 and 42% and economic concerns are persistent with voters.
Over two-thirds of voters are also concerned about Joe’s advanced age. If you ask a random person about Joe Biden’s re-election bid, they are likely to simply shake their head and say, “He’s too old.” Perhaps running an 81-year old with a 40% approval rate isn’t a winning formula.
Last week a new candidate arrived on the scene making this very case – Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota. Dean is a moderate Democrat who has been exhorting other Dems to run against Joe Biden out of concerns over his electability. When no one else took on the challenge, Dean decided to run himself.
I’m personally very bullish on Dean’s campaign and see him as our best chance to avoid a Biden vs. Trump rematch. You can check out Dean’s campaign here. I’ve donated and hope you consider doing so too.
Most people will initially dismiss Dean, though there is reason to believe that he’ll be competitive. The truth is we won’t really know until New Hampshire votes in January – Joe Biden will be competing as a write-in candidate there. If Dean runs very strongly in New Hampshire, how will that impact other states? What will the media response be? It’s essentially a 3-month sprint. If numbers are to be believed, Dean is speaking for the majority of voters, which bodes well for his growth trajectory.
Barring a Dean Phillips insurgence, which would be truly epic, the truth is that both major parties are poised to field historically weak candidates. A generic Republican – e.g., Nikki Haley - would, I believe, defeat Joe Biden. A generic Democrat – one not saddled with doubts about age and vitality – would defeat Donald Trump.
Can either party shake free of the inertia of a Trump – Biden rematch that most Americans don’t want? Whichever party can do just that will almost certainly win; I am excited for the first poll that shows Dean Phillips defeating Trump by 8 points, simply by virtue of being a 54-year old moderate Democrat. Winning doesn’t seem to be the top priority of either party anymore though, much as they might protest otherwise.
Yet underneath the thin layer of conformity and careerism is the will of the American people, hungry for better options. I’d love to see that hunger satisfied on either side. We have 3 months to make it happen.
To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here. For the holidays I am offering to personalize and sign books to use as a gift for that special someone! Click here and we will get them out by the holidays.
