Marianne Williamson

I ran for President in 2020 – and thus spent a fair amount of time with the other candidates. Cory Booker, Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris – we would all run into each other speaking or campaigning in the early states or at any number of public forums. Sometimes you’re in the same waiting room for 20 minutes before the cameras go on.

One candidate I connected with early on was Marianne Williamson.  Marianne was always warm, generous and thoughtful anytime I saw her.  And she worked as hard as anyone, relocating to Iowa for months and conducting dozens, perhaps hundreds of community events.  She campaigned with me in Iowa at least once down the stretch. 

Marianne recently announced she is running for President in 2024.  I love her courage and independence; it takes a lot to run, perhaps more to run again. 

“We are six inches away from the edge,” Marianne says.  “Americans need to know that we can do more than just survive.  We can thrive.”  I interview Marianne on the podcast this week.  “We keep being told that ‘things are complicated.’  They’re not complicated.  They’re corrupt.” 

I’ve written that I think a contested primary would be a good thing.  Isn’t that what democracy is all about? Marianne and I discuss at length the DNC’s changing of the primary calendar to elevate South Carolina at the expense of New Hampshire and Iowa.  “I was in New Hampshire last week and the Democrats there are mad,” Marianne comments.  “What did they do wrong?  Their big mistake was that they didn’t vote for Joe Biden.” 

There are, I’m sure, a dozen major Democrats who want to run for President but are being told not to by the party.  “Someone was told it was political suicide to run,” Marianne shares.  “What am I protecting?”  Meanwhile polling shows that a majority of Democratic voters – 60% - either want to move on from Joe Biden or want a competitive primary. 

Marianne is clear-eyed about the nature of the challenge.  “I know they are going to try to invisible-ize me.  But I think that’s a lot harder now than it was. People are catching on.” 

Mark Leibovich in the Atlantic this week wrote that Trump has instilled a massive risk aversion in the Democrats.  In the same article, he encourages a challenge to Biden. He cites a couple very American principles of choice and freedom as reasons to have a competitive primary. 

Marianne concurs.  “If the people vote for Joe Biden as the nominee, I’ll be among the first to support him.  But shouldn’t the people decide?  Is this not still a democracy?”  Marianne is going to test that proposition, and I for one am grateful.  Our way out of our current polarization is more democracy, not less.

For my interview with Marianne, click here.  To check out Forward in your area, click here – we are growing all of the time.  Let's reconnect our leaders to what people actually want.  

The Republican Field Begins to Form

Hello, I hope that you had a great weekend! 

As Biden bides his time in terms of a decision to run to be announced in April, the Republican primary is heating up.  Donald Trump has a stranglehold on 25 – 30% of the base, which may be enough to win.  Nikki Haley has announced along with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.  Tim Scott is about to get in, and Ron DeSantis is waiting in the wings while essentially already campaigning in New York and California.  I’d expect Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, Chris Christie and a few others to declare by May. 

Photo by Gage Skidmore

That gets you to ten candidates pretty quickly. Polling has come out in the last few days showing Ron DeSantis is now stronger than Trump among Republican voters.  Trump’s attention and hostility will be focused on DeSantis as a result – Trump is showing up in Ohio and actually campaigning.  Every other candidate will have to answer why they are relevant next to one of those two, even as DeSantis hasn’t officially declared. 

The primary debates start in late summer and the voting in Iowa in early February.  There are about 11 months until the voting starts.  Many of these candidates won’t make it to the voting but will drop out beforehand due to lack of viability.  Their viability will be determined by fundraising, press and polling. 

I remember when I was running for President – my team would use a metaphor of 3 race cars that were chained together.  If one raced ahead it would get stuck if the other two weren’t also making progress.  Let’s say you raised a lot of money but had bad polling or press.  Your funding would dry up.  If you weren’t raising money you wouldn’t seem serious to either early voters or the press.  And if the press ignored you it would be hard to lift either polling or fundraising.  You see how it works.  This is particularly why making every debate stage is important – as soon as you miss a televised debate you become less viable to donors, voters and reporters. 

Fundraising results are reported every quarter, so they get used as a benchmark for how each campaign is doing.  It’s one reason why you’ll see a flurry of announcements in April so they don’t have to report any results until July.  For each candidate, you have a projection as to how much money you’ll raise but the truth is that beyond your loyalists you don’t really know who is going to find you compelling enough to make a donation.  How many people will watch your announcement video and then bust out their credit card? 

Vivek Ramaswamy is going to be more viable than a lot of people think.  His message appeals to a certain type of pro-business Independent.  He’s worth a reported $500 million and can self-fund into the tens of millions, which is relatively unique in the field – most candidates will be spending a lot of their time jetting off to court donors on the coasts instead of working the early states.  He doesn’t need to do that.  He can pay for advertising and a retinue of staffers.  He’ll get quality people in the early states and can build a field operation.  He’s only 37 and will be able to work and campaign to all hours.  Fundamentally, he has a distinct message and appeal and seems different from the other candidates, which is an advantage in what will soon be a crowded field. 

Nikki Haley is running on a return to traditional Republican principles and a new generation of leadership.  Her campaign in part rests on the collapse of one of the two major frontrunners, which is the same bet that a lot of other candidates will be forced to make.  She is drawing significant crowds in the early primary states which is a good place to start. 

One of the other governors – Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, Chris Christie – is going to take on the full-on anti-Trump moderate message and to turn the page on extremism and losing.  There’s little evidence that Republican primary voters are hungering for a return to moderation though. 

Tim Scott presents a very interesting figure as a black Senator in one of the important early states. He would neuter the “Republicans are racist” accusation, which will be appealing to a lot of voters who want a positive message and messenger.  My friends in South Carolina on both sides of the aisle say he’s the real deal and is compelling in both private and public settings.  His ceiling is high and he may be one of the reasons Nikki Haley is not getting more attention as he will get a lot of support in South Carolina. 

The major question is – how will Ron DeSantis hold up when he gets the full brunt of attention as the frontrunner?  There are people who are dubious that he can maintain his status when he gets vetted for real after he announces.  History is filled with candidates who wilt upon closer inspection or a couple bad press cycles.  As someone who has been there, you don’t truly know how someone is going to respond until you’re there.  DeSantis is not much of a natural schmoozer – he doesn’t enjoy political rituals the way some others do.  In Iowa in particular that’s not an ideal fit. 

Keep an eye out for the fundraising totals at the beginning of April as they will signal Trump’s enduring strength (or not) among the grassroots, Nikki Haley’s ability to capitalize on declaring early, and whether Vivek is catching on.  But the real tension will be later that month when Joe Biden declares and probably Ron DeSantis and several other Republicans too. 

People ask me all of the time who I think will be the major party candidates for 2024.  Right now the most likely bets are Joe Biden (whom I don't think should run again but probably will) on the Democratic side and either Trump or DeSantis on the Republican side.  Of course a lot can change.  But this presidential cycle is heating up, and each passing day makes the likely scenario more probable.

Want a new approach to politics?  Check out Forward in your area as we are growing fast!  For an interview with our brand new CEO Lindsey Drath click here.  We deserve better choices.  

Campaigning in CA

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great! 
 
I was in Los Angeles campaigning for Forward this past week and had an awesome time.  Governor Christie Todd Whitman and I did an interview with statewide press and we met with activists and leaders in the state. 

Literally thousands of Californians signed up for the new party upon our announcement – they know that politics as usual isn’t working in the Golden State and a new approach is needed.  Homelessness was top of mind for the folks in LA but there were many other issues as well. 
 
Fundamentally, California functions as a one-party state, with Democrats enjoying a supermajority.  We don’t think that delivers the best policies, results or accountability for the people.  And you can see that California has been struggling with people and businesses leaving due to the high costs of living and quality of life issues.  It’s a wonderful place – but we think it can do better moving forward.  And far too many Californians feel like they are on the outside looking in.    
 
You can register for the Common Sense party now to make your voice heard!  Forward and Common Sense will be teaming up to get party recognition through the rest of the year.  We need to get 73,000 registrations and are almost halfway there already!  Every voter counts so tell your friends and family who you know want something new. Register today! 
 
If California were its own country it would be the 5th biggest economy in the world.  It’s no exaggeration to say that where you go, the world will follow.  It’s one reason why I’m so excited for this effort.  I’ll be back in California every month this year to continue making the case, so keep an eye out! 
 
Love California!  Let’s make it better. 

Leaders Wanted

Hello, I hope your weekend was great.  I was in Los Angeles this week meeting with party leaders and doing press for our big launch in California this month with our new affiliate, CA Common Sense. 

I started the Forward Party 16 months ago with conviction on a few big things.  One, America is getting more and more polarized and is careening toward dysfunction and open conflict.  Two, the answer will not come from within the traditional two-party system, which feeds into tribalism by design.  Three, a new political force is required that rewards problem-solving and will fuel reform of the structures that disproportionately empower the extremes in American life. 

I also knew there was a massive appetite for a better, more positive approach to our politics meant to bring people together rather than pit us against each other.  There are good people of every political background and it’s okay to disagree with someone and still share a community with them. 

Over the past year-plus, I’ve had the pleasure of meeting a number of leaders who have come to similar conclusions.  One of the most remarkable among them was Lindsey Drath, who was just named the new CEO of the Forward Party.

Lindsey comes to Forward as the lead fundraiser for Unite America, an organization that funds reform campaigns and ballot initiatives for measures like nonpartisan primaries and Ranked Choice Voting.  “I sold democracy plumbing to rich people” is how Lindsey puts it.  Of course, that plumbing might just save the country. 

Over time, Lindsey came to realize the need for a popular movement.  “People need a group that they can join.  And the reform movement needs to involve actual everyday Americans who want to stand up and improve things for themselves.”  The Forward Party now has over 30,000 active volunteers in all fifty states, and is making rapid headway as the biggest independent political effort in a generation. 

Lindsey is an experienced political operative, so people tried to dissuade her from joining Forward.  “Oh yeah, people try to scare you.  They say this is a one-way street, and you can’t come back to party politics.  The fact is, I’m so grateful that this movement exists, because I can do this work on behalf of the country while knowing I’m doing the right thing.  This is the right answer.”  Lindsey started her own successful consulting firm in D.C. while raising three kids – she’s a powerhouse who is not easily daunted by naysayers.   

With Forward, Lindsey simply showed up and started working.  That’s her instinct.  I’ve had the pleasure of working with her for the last several months, and I know how lucky we are to get someone like her willing to bet her career and reputation on a new approach to politics.  Matt, Miles, Kait and the rest of the team are pumped to work alongside her because she’s already been here making things better for months.    

“I talk to people all of the time, and they are what I’d call Forward-curious” Lindsey says.  “They aren’t convinced yet, but a lot of them wonder whether maybe this time it’s different and new things are possible.  And many of them are distressed at how bad our politics have become and desperately want an alternative.  As we grow, more and more will join us.” 

Followers look around and wonder what others think.  Leaders build what others regard as impossible and leave others wondering why they didn’t see it sooner. 

Welcome to Lindsey – with her at the helm there’s no limit to what Forward will become. 

To join Forward in your state, click here.  To listen to my interview with Lindsey this week click here.  To become a donor to Forward, click here.  Let’s lead.  

Joe Biden and 2024

Last Tuesday Joe Biden gave a State of the Union address that could aptly be characterized as a kickoff for his re-election campaign.  It included many kitchen table elements meant to appeal to specific voters. 

Every indication has been that Joe is running.  I was in South Carolina several weeks ago and they described a total lack of outreach by any other establishment Democrats.  (They weren’t happy about it by the way – the folks in South Carolina want a competitive primary and all of the attention and resources it would bring, particularly as Democrats are now something of a minority in the state.)  The DNC voted last week to elevate South Carolina to first in the nation, which is meant to protect Joe from challengers. 

The big losers in the DNC’s new early state calendar are Iowa and New Hampshire.  Iowa has been completely kicked out of the early primary states by the Dems (it will remain first for the Republicans, so you’ll still see a lot of stories out of there this year).  New Hampshire has been demoted to the same day as Nevada in the 2nd week, pending its ability to change state law (which won’t happen because Republicans control the state legislature; New Hampshire state law says that they go first no matter what. The DNC will likely threaten to take away delegates and other penalties if New Hampshire schedules its primary ahead of South Carolina). 
 
I get Iowa getting kicked out on one level – the state party completely botched the caucuses in the last cycle and weren’t able to report results.  Iowa is now dominated by Republicans and is a homogeneous largely rural state.  But the national Democratic Party’s message to white, Midwestern and rural voters gets harder if they explicitly dump states like Iowa and Ohio for states like Arizona and Nevada.  It accelerates the polarization of the two parties if you stop fighting for “the other party’s” voters. 
 
New Hampshire getting demoted makes less sense given that the state party there did everything that was asked of it.  It also doesn’t make sense to ask NH Democrats to change the state law when they don’t control the legislature.  It feels like New Hampshire is being punished simply for being too white/not diverse enough and . . . for not voting for Joe Biden. 
 
Which brings us back to Joe Biden and the Democratic field.  Party surrogates were out in force touting Joe as the Democratic standard bearer right after his speech.  He will likely declare sometime between now and April.  The field will be largely clear of challengers despite consistent polling that shows that a majority of Democrats and Americans generally are leery of Joe running again because of his advanced age; he will be 82 at the end of 2024, easily the oldest person to ever sit in the Oval Office even before he starts a potential second term. 
 
This week on the podcast I sit down with Chris Cillizza, veteran political reporter from CNN, to discuss both the Democratic and Republican fields.  “People went crazy when Ronald Reagan ran and Reagan was a decade younger . . . if Biden didn’t have control over the reins of the Democratic process, which he does, and incumbent Presidents generally do . . . is there a lane where someone runs under a generational change message where someone who is 82 can’t be the future of the party?  That’s a case that there is some polling data that supports an interest in, particularly among younger Democratic voters.” 
 
When I’m out and about, the average American shakes his or head in disbelief when they hear that Joe is running again.  Often, they simply say, “He’s too old.” 
 
His age is less of an issue against Trump, who would be 77 in 2024.  But it would be a striking contrast with Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, or any candidate younger than 70.  Indeed, Biden’s prospects are buoyed by the looming Trump campaign.  One can easily imagine the Dems trying to boost Trump as ‘the more beatable’ candidate in next year’s Republican primary to try and strengthen Joe’s hand.  That’s what passes for politics in today’s two-party system. 
 
I personally think that Joe is doing us all a disservice by running again – he should make way for the next generation and let a competitive primary determine the next leader.  It’s okay to think that Joe was a fine candidate for 2020 and not for 2024.  Confident and functional organizations pass the baton. 
 
If Joe does insist on running again, I think the Democrats should run a competitive primary to determine his running mate.  There’s significant discomfort with Kamala Harris as the heir apparent as she fared poorly in 2020, dropping out well before the voting started.  Voting for an 82-year-old President may well be voting for his running mate. 
 
Someone said to me that they liked Joe as a person, but at this point “he’s a walking emblem for a decaying establishment.”  In America though, whatever’s in place stays in place unless it’s defeated and replaced.  That’s what both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are counting on. 
 
For my interview with Chris Cillizza in which we discuss both the Democratic and Republican fields, click here.  To push our politics in a new and better direction, check out Forward here.  Some exciting news on that front coming soon! 

Masih Alinejad

Hello, I hope you’ve had a great week. 

Like most Americans, I had seen the videos of Iranian protestors these past months marching for freedom from edicts enforced by morality police and subjugation.  I hoped that their bravery would lead to progress and positive change.

Instead, they have been met with brutal repression and retaliation.  And not just in Iran.  Last week the news came out that an Iranian-American journalist in Brooklyn, Masih Alinejad, was targeted by 3 killers-for-hire by the Iranian government because of her vocal activism against the regime. A man with an automatic rifle was arrested outside of her home in New York last year. 

I found this shocking – the Iranian government sent assassins to kill an American on American soil for exercising her rights to free speech?

I interviewed Masih this week on the podcast and she was compelling and heartbreaking.  “I am not worried for my own life.  But what would happen to my family or neighbors if they had started shooting at my home?”  Masih is now staying at safehouses as per the guidance of the FBI.  “My native country is trying to kill me, and my adopted country is protecting me.” 

Masih came to America in 2009, but most of her family yet lives in Iran.  The government has been very harsh toward Masih’s family to try to force her to abandon her activism.  “My brother was imprisoned for two years.  My sister was forced to denounce me for 17 minutes on national television.  I have not seen my mother in years – I miss my mother.  I have felt incredibly guilty.  My family members have been told that if they even call or email me, they will be jailed for 10 years.” 

She is also inspired by the courage shown by everyday Iranians.  “They are running risks every day by telling the regime in videos and posts and taking to the streets that change is needed.  How can I be any less brave here?” 

And yet Masih feels that the Iranian people cannot go it alone.  “I want to meet with President Biden.  The US stands for freedom and democracy. The US should help guide the EU to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist group, as the US already has.  Iran is sending drones to kill innocent Ukrainians.  Iranians are being raped and brutalized and executed simply for saying they want a better life.” 

Masih also makes the case that this is not something isolated to Iran.  “If Iran is willing to do this in America, this is a national security issue.  What happens in Iran does not just affect Iranians.  It will affect everyone.” 

Meeting with Masih and interviewing her was a rare privilege – it’s not often that you meet someone willing to risk so much for her people.  Despite everything she has been through, she remains positive about the future of her homeland.  “I hope to go back to my native country and have you visit with me, Andrew.  It’s a beautiful country.”  I hope that she gets her wish.

For my interview with Masih click here and to check out Forward click here. 

An American in Ukraine

This past week, the Biden Administration decided to send dozens of modern Abrams tanks to assist in the defense of Ukraine. 

I applaud this decision.  Like most Americans, I was shocked and horrified when Putin invaded Ukraine last February.  I didn’t think any responsible leader could do something so destructive and callous, including toward his own people. 

In the weeks that followed, I was heartened and inspired by the resilience and determination of the Ukrainians who seemed willing to die to defend their country.  President Zelensky became a symbol of courage, with his consistent calls for international support carrying the weight of the risks he incurs every day. 

A select group of Americans have headed to Ukraine to serve.  One of them is Sarah Ashton-Cirillo, whom I met with when she was back in the States to brief members of Congress on the state of the conflict on the ground.  I knew Sarah from her time as a journalist in Las Vegas when I campaigned there in 2020. 

Sarah has made an incredible transition – from journalist to enlisted soldier in the Ukrainian army.  “After being embedded with a military unit for months as a journalist, we built up a trust.  They started asking me to do things in terms of communications and analysis that, frankly, make it feel natural for me to enlist.  I trained as a medic, though I also received a rifle and weapons training.  Unfortunately, I have seen more death and horror than I would wish upon anyone.  For example, 30 journalists have already died in the conflict.” 

Imagine risking your life for months on end for a country that is not yours.  But Sarah sees the stakes as high as can be.  “It’s genuinely about democracy and freedom and humanity.  Putin’s invasion threatens everything we hold dear.  He cannot be allowed to succeed.  He must be defeated.” 

Sarah is a transgender female.  “Here in Ukraine, people only care about your character and what actions you take.  My identity has been a non-issue here.  It’s a much bigger deal in the States.” 

She sees the conflict as entering a critical phase.  “Any resources we get now are worth much more than later, because this Spring will be crucial.  My message to the American people is that this is the absolute best ROI you can get on any investment anywhere.  If we properly support the Ukrainians who are fighting for their country we not only can win, we will win.” 

I interviewed Sarah on the podcast this week - toward the end I asked her when she imagines leaving Ukraine.  She said, “When the conflict is over.”  All the more reason to do all we can to bring Putin’s war to an end as quickly as possible with his defeat.  Stay safe Sarah. 

Big News in SC, CA and more

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great!  I just came back from South Carolina where I campaigned for Ranked Choice Voting and met with Forward state leaders and volunteers who are hard at work gathering signatures for ballot status in SC.  I also did multiple press interviews and appearances; it was an invigorating trip.  Our old friend Jermaine Johnson has co-sponsored a bipartisan bill in Columbia to adopt Ranked Choice Voting. 

Today in California, we announced that Forward is teaming up with the Common Sense Party, which has 30,000 signatures on its way to 73,000 to achieve party status there.  Common Sense is led by Tom Campbell, a former member of Congress who realized that the system needs reform.  Your friends in California can now register for the Common Sense party and help move the state in a better direction.  We love working with like-minded people.  I’ll be heading to Los Angeles with former NJ Governor Christie Todd Whitman for a kick-off event in CA. 
 
Signature gathering efforts to certify the Forward Party have launched also in Colorado, Utah and Louisiana and are set for another 16 states this year.  Everywhere, Americans are saying “we need something new” and are rolling up their sleeves to make it happen. 
 
But we need your help.  Let your friends in SC, CA or any other state know that people are working hard to provide a new option for them.  Join Forward in your state.  Don’t have any friends?  I don’t believe it.  But you can always make a donation to Forward – in many ways that’s the easiest way to help. 

I had a wonderful time in South Carolina because of the chance to meet our volunteers – truly awesome people.  One of our state leads in SC, Clint, commented “I had no idea I’d make such great new friends.”  That’s what happens when you do something important – other people come together alongside you that share your values.  You get along.  And together, sometimes, you change the world. 
 
Let’s get to work.  Tell your friends.  And maybe make some new ones.  I have. 

Huge Announcement re: CA!

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great!  Thank you for your support in California, which has been a second home to me and Evelyn and is where my parents met as students at UC Berkeley.  
 
I have some thrilling news – Forward will be teaming up with the Common Sense Party of California! 

Over the past number of months we met with Tom Campbell, John Pimentel and the other Common Sense leaders and realized that we are totally aligned and want the same things in terms of a better, more accountable political system that actually solves problems and listens to voters.  Forward takes pride in teaming up with like-minded people and not being territorial.  We would be better off working hand-in-hand rather than apart. 
 
After many discussions, we are proud to announce that we will be moving CA forward together!  
 
The Common Sense Party is currently hard at work registering roughly 73,000 California voters to join the party and get ballot recognition.  This is where we come in; if Forward Party members and supporters get behind this, we can clear this hurdle and bring a new party to California politics in 2023.  It’s my personal goal that Forward Party members become the defining essence of this effort and the new party.  30,000 Californians have already signed up so we are almost halfway there.  
 
I will be visiting Los Angeles in February as part of an official kick-off.  But now is the chance to make your voice heard!  Register for the Common Sense party today and consider making a contribution to this effort.  Most importantly, tell your friends that there’s a new party coming to California and if they’re sick of the status quo and want REAL change, this is the way to get it.  Join up today!  
 
Our elected officials are captive to party interests in California ahead of the people’s – let’s change that.  
 
Common Sense + Forward = Real Progress!  Let’s do it. 
 
Yours excitedly,

ChatGPT and Reality

I spent several years arguing that automation is going to upend and transform the American labor market – I wrote a book called ‘The War on Normal People” on this topic that became a New York Times bestseller and now has 2,000+ 5-star reviews on Amazon. 

Alternate cover design

Some people believed it.  Others didn’t.  But late last year, ChatGPT came along and opened a lot of eyes. 

ChatGPT is an AI chatbot developed by OpenAI that can generate stories, paragraphs, passages or poems from a simple query or text prompt.  The work product is on par with, or in some cases superior to, what a college-educated person could produce given much more time.  It has already absorbed tens of billions of data points and is constantly integrating more to become smarter, more efficient and more effective. 

Annie Lowrey in the Atlantic wrote about ChatGPT:  ”AI can do work currently done by paralegals, copywriters, digital-content producers, executive assistants, entry-level computer programmers, and, yes some journalists.”  Paul Graham of YCombinator commented, “"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening.” 

This week on the podcast I interview Stephen Marche, a writer for the Atlantic who has extensively researched not just ChatGPT but other language processing AI and written several pieces about it.  What are the implications of AI getting smart enough to produce natural language? 

Said Stephen: 

“One of the biggest challenges is the potential for job displacement and economic disruption. As machines become more intelligent and capable, they will be able to perform tasks that were once thought to be the exclusive domain of humans. This could lead to job loss and economic inequality, particularly in industries such as manufacturing, transportation, and customer service.

Another challenge of AI is its potential to be used for malicious purposes. AI can be used to create more convincing deepfake videos and impersonate political figures online, which could have negative implications for the democratic process. Additionally, AI can be used to create autonomous weapons, which could have devastating consequences for global security.” 

Stephen doesn’t quite talk like that.  The above quote was generated by ChatGPT. 

What Stephen actually sounds like is, “Before 2017 I was a skeptic of digital humanities, but then the transformer happened and everything sped up.  The trend to me is much broader than just ChatGPT . . . people are catching up and seeing it happen.  ChatGPT is a bot that you can ask any question and it will produce a coherent response by going through billions and billions of parameters and is thus much more useful and practical for everyone.  Everyone has their holy cow moment using this stuff . . . this is going to change a lot of things.  I’ve had access to a more advanced AI [than the public] and what it can do is really freaky, including low-level chain reasoning.  If this is the Model T, someone is eventually going to make a Lamborghini and that will have a range of impacts on everything that involves language.”

Google recently sounded the alarm about what ChatGPT could mean for its search engine business.  If Google is concerned, how should the 2 million Americans who work at call centers think about their future?  About 62 million jobs are categorized by the Fed as routine cognitive or routine manual – about 44 percent of total jobs.  Oxford estimated that a similar percentage – 47% - of jobs are subject to automation. 

Source: Economic Data, The Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis

When I campaigned in 2020 did I think that the future would be here in 2023?  As William Gibson wrote, “The future is already here; it’s just unevenly distributed.”  Well it’s distributing fast.  The question is, what will we do about it?    

For my conversation with Stephen Marche, which I found fascinating, click here and for the War on Normal People click here.  To reform our political system to respond to the real challenges, check out Forward.  The machines won't save us, we're going to have to do it ourselves.