The Republican Field Begins to Form
Hello, I hope that you had a great weekend!
As Biden bides his time in terms of a decision to run to be announced in April, the Republican primary is heating up. Donald Trump has a stranglehold on 25 – 30% of the base, which may be enough to win. Nikki Haley has announced along with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Tim Scott is about to get in, and Ron DeSantis is waiting in the wings while essentially already campaigning in New York and California. I’d expect Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, Chris Christie and a few others to declare by May.
Photo by Gage Skidmore
That gets you to ten candidates pretty quickly. Polling has come out in the last few days showing Ron DeSantis is now stronger than Trump among Republican voters. Trump’s attention and hostility will be focused on DeSantis as a result – Trump is showing up in Ohio and actually campaigning. Every other candidate will have to answer why they are relevant next to one of those two, even as DeSantis hasn’t officially declared.
The primary debates start in late summer and the voting in Iowa in early February. There are about 11 months until the voting starts. Many of these candidates won’t make it to the voting but will drop out beforehand due to lack of viability. Their viability will be determined by fundraising, press and polling.
I remember when I was running for President – my team would use a metaphor of 3 race cars that were chained together. If one raced ahead it would get stuck if the other two weren’t also making progress. Let’s say you raised a lot of money but had bad polling or press. Your funding would dry up. If you weren’t raising money you wouldn’t seem serious to either early voters or the press. And if the press ignored you it would be hard to lift either polling or fundraising. You see how it works. This is particularly why making every debate stage is important – as soon as you miss a televised debate you become less viable to donors, voters and reporters.
Fundraising results are reported every quarter, so they get used as a benchmark for how each campaign is doing. It’s one reason why you’ll see a flurry of announcements in April so they don’t have to report any results until July. For each candidate, you have a projection as to how much money you’ll raise but the truth is that beyond your loyalists you don’t really know who is going to find you compelling enough to make a donation. How many people will watch your announcement video and then bust out their credit card?
Vivek Ramaswamy is going to be more viable than a lot of people think. His message appeals to a certain type of pro-business Independent. He’s worth a reported $500 million and can self-fund into the tens of millions, which is relatively unique in the field – most candidates will be spending a lot of their time jetting off to court donors on the coasts instead of working the early states. He doesn’t need to do that. He can pay for advertising and a retinue of staffers. He’ll get quality people in the early states and can build a field operation. He’s only 37 and will be able to work and campaign to all hours. Fundamentally, he has a distinct message and appeal and seems different from the other candidates, which is an advantage in what will soon be a crowded field.
Nikki Haley is running on a return to traditional Republican principles and a new generation of leadership. Her campaign in part rests on the collapse of one of the two major frontrunners, which is the same bet that a lot of other candidates will be forced to make. She is drawing significant crowds in the early primary states which is a good place to start.
One of the other governors – Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, Chris Christie – is going to take on the full-on anti-Trump moderate message and to turn the page on extremism and losing. There’s little evidence that Republican primary voters are hungering for a return to moderation though.
Tim Scott presents a very interesting figure as a black Senator in one of the important early states. He would neuter the “Republicans are racist” accusation, which will be appealing to a lot of voters who want a positive message and messenger. My friends in South Carolina on both sides of the aisle say he’s the real deal and is compelling in both private and public settings. His ceiling is high and he may be one of the reasons Nikki Haley is not getting more attention as he will get a lot of support in South Carolina.
The major question is – how will Ron DeSantis hold up when he gets the full brunt of attention as the frontrunner? There are people who are dubious that he can maintain his status when he gets vetted for real after he announces. History is filled with candidates who wilt upon closer inspection or a couple bad press cycles. As someone who has been there, you don’t truly know how someone is going to respond until you’re there. DeSantis is not much of a natural schmoozer – he doesn’t enjoy political rituals the way some others do. In Iowa in particular that’s not an ideal fit.
Keep an eye out for the fundraising totals at the beginning of April as they will signal Trump’s enduring strength (or not) among the grassroots, Nikki Haley’s ability to capitalize on declaring early, and whether Vivek is catching on. But the real tension will be later that month when Joe Biden declares and probably Ron DeSantis and several other Republicans too.
People ask me all of the time who I think will be the major party candidates for 2024. Right now the most likely bets are Joe Biden (whom I don't think should run again but probably will) on the Democratic side and either Trump or DeSantis on the Republican side. Of course a lot can change. But this presidential cycle is heating up, and each passing day makes the likely scenario more probable.
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