Joe Biden and 2024
Last Tuesday Joe Biden gave a State of the Union address that could aptly be characterized as a kickoff for his re-election campaign. It included many kitchen table elements meant to appeal to specific voters.
Every indication has been that Joe is running. I was in South Carolina several weeks ago and they described a total lack of outreach by any other establishment Democrats. (They weren’t happy about it by the way – the folks in South Carolina want a competitive primary and all of the attention and resources it would bring, particularly as Democrats are now something of a minority in the state.) The DNC voted last week to elevate South Carolina to first in the nation, which is meant to protect Joe from challengers.
The big losers in the DNC’s new early state calendar are Iowa and New Hampshire. Iowa has been completely kicked out of the early primary states by the Dems (it will remain first for the Republicans, so you’ll still see a lot of stories out of there this year). New Hampshire has been demoted to the same day as Nevada in the 2nd week, pending its ability to change state law (which won’t happen because Republicans control the state legislature; New Hampshire state law says that they go first no matter what. The DNC will likely threaten to take away delegates and other penalties if New Hampshire schedules its primary ahead of South Carolina).
I get Iowa getting kicked out on one level – the state party completely botched the caucuses in the last cycle and weren’t able to report results. Iowa is now dominated by Republicans and is a homogeneous largely rural state. But the national Democratic Party’s message to white, Midwestern and rural voters gets harder if they explicitly dump states like Iowa and Ohio for states like Arizona and Nevada. It accelerates the polarization of the two parties if you stop fighting for “the other party’s” voters.
New Hampshire getting demoted makes less sense given that the state party there did everything that was asked of it. It also doesn’t make sense to ask NH Democrats to change the state law when they don’t control the legislature. It feels like New Hampshire is being punished simply for being too white/not diverse enough and . . . for not voting for Joe Biden.
Which brings us back to Joe Biden and the Democratic field. Party surrogates were out in force touting Joe as the Democratic standard bearer right after his speech. He will likely declare sometime between now and April. The field will be largely clear of challengers despite consistent polling that shows that a majority of Democrats and Americans generally are leery of Joe running again because of his advanced age; he will be 82 at the end of 2024, easily the oldest person to ever sit in the Oval Office even before he starts a potential second term.
This week on the podcast I sit down with Chris Cillizza, veteran political reporter from CNN, to discuss both the Democratic and Republican fields. “People went crazy when Ronald Reagan ran and Reagan was a decade younger . . . if Biden didn’t have control over the reins of the Democratic process, which he does, and incumbent Presidents generally do . . . is there a lane where someone runs under a generational change message where someone who is 82 can’t be the future of the party? That’s a case that there is some polling data that supports an interest in, particularly among younger Democratic voters.”
When I’m out and about, the average American shakes his or head in disbelief when they hear that Joe is running again. Often, they simply say, “He’s too old.”
His age is less of an issue against Trump, who would be 77 in 2024. But it would be a striking contrast with Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, or any candidate younger than 70. Indeed, Biden’s prospects are buoyed by the looming Trump campaign. One can easily imagine the Dems trying to boost Trump as ‘the more beatable’ candidate in next year’s Republican primary to try and strengthen Joe’s hand. That’s what passes for politics in today’s two-party system.
I personally think that Joe is doing us all a disservice by running again – he should make way for the next generation and let a competitive primary determine the next leader. It’s okay to think that Joe was a fine candidate for 2020 and not for 2024. Confident and functional organizations pass the baton.
If Joe does insist on running again, I think the Democrats should run a competitive primary to determine his running mate. There’s significant discomfort with Kamala Harris as the heir apparent as she fared poorly in 2020, dropping out well before the voting started. Voting for an 82-year-old President may well be voting for his running mate.
Someone said to me that they liked Joe as a person, but at this point “he’s a walking emblem for a decaying establishment.” In America though, whatever’s in place stays in place unless it’s defeated and replaced. That’s what both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are counting on.
For my interview with Chris Cillizza in which we discuss both the Democratic and Republican fields, click here. To push our politics in a new and better direction, check out Forward here. Some exciting news on that front coming soon!
