Trump is Back
Last night, as expected, Trump officially declared his 2024 campaign for the White House. It seems that most of America wants to move on from Trump, but that won’t happen unless someone defeats him or otherwise sends him offstage.
Who will oppose him in the Republican field? His primary opponents are likely to include Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Mike Pompeo, Tulsi Gabbard, Francis Suarez, and a few others. The major variable is Ron DeSantis – I thought DeSantis would sit this cycle out based in part on what he was telling donors, but he might indeed run. DeSantis is going to be tied up with gubernatorial business until March of next year, when he could have a clearer picture for a decision. DeSantis strikes me as the greatest threat to Trump within the party in terms of money and grassroots support.
Have you seen Ron DeSantis speak? He is not the performer that Trump is. The fervor toward Ron has been generated largely by favorable media treatment.
The voting doesn’t start until February of 2024 – until then it’s money, speeches, polls, rallies and operations. Most other candidates will, I believe, have a hard time getting the attention and energy they need. Some candidates will feel pressure to get in early in order to try and stake out a lane. Others will prefer to wait to see if something changes.
On the Democratic side, Biden is already making moves for 2024 and has been emboldened by the midterms. I see him declaring early next year and clearing the field.
Trump is diminished by the midterms – and much of the media is determined to deny him - but he is still the favorite in my mind to win his party’s nomination. You can’t replace the grassroots energy he yet has with the bulk of the Republican base. And running against Trump remains a daunting experience for most; he wields grievance and anger like cudgels and his hostility evokes the same among his many followers.
To me, the most likely matchup for months has always been a rematch between Biden and Trump in 2024. The rematch no one wants is inching closer. Even as you and most Americans groan, the system will coalesce around these soon-to-be octogenarians until one or the other is unable to continue, or the system itself sees a change.
How will this Trump run end? I ran a Twitter poll last night. The results (13,000+ votes) were:
Drops out/fails – 15%
Loses in primary – 42%
Loses in general – 25%
Returns to White House – 18%
You can see any of these happening. You can put me in the camp as someone who thinks a second Trump term would be a catastrophe. Let’s do all we can to keep him out of the Oval Office. Don't underestimate him.
