50-50 Nation

Hello, I hope all is great with you! Votes are yet being counted from Election Day; Congress is close, with the Republicans expected to win a slight majority in the House. The U.S. Senate will stay with the Democrats with close wins in Nevada and Arizona. Democrats outperformed expectations in much of the country.

9 Forward-endorsed candidates won their races, but perhaps the biggest win for Forward was that the ballot initiative Question 3 in Nevada passed! It shifts the state to non-partisan primaries and ranked choice voting, which also allows independents to vote in the primaries. It will be on the ballot again in 2024 to make the change permanent.

Yes, Nevada may follow Alaska’s example and do away with the party primaries that are distorting our politics and empowering extremists. For those who think that we are trapped, Nevada shows that there is indeed a way out. The people of Nevada spoke and they want a better way. Congrats to Cesar Marquez and the entire Nevada team for helping make it happen!!!

This week on the podcast I discuss the midterms with my former campaign manager and author of ‘Longshot,’ Zach Graumann. Some of our takeaways from Election Day:

1. The odds of a Trump – Biden rematch in 2024 went up considerably. Trump, despite a mixed-at-best showing in the midterms, will likely declare any day now. Joe Biden, vindicated by a surprisingly good result, is now much more likely to run for re-election. Biden took a victory lap this week, a sign of how he’s feeling about defying expectations. Joe will likely make a decision and announce early next year.
   
   I tweeted, “I think Joe Biden is misinterpreting dislike for Republicans as enthusiasm for him.” He sees it as his God-given responsibility to defeat Trump, and doesn’t believe anyone else can do it. I think he takes his time and decides to run.
   

2. Candidate quality mattered. In several swing states we saw a stronger candidate vastly outperform a weaker one on the same ticket. Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race was decided by 14 points while its Senate race was 9 points closer. In Georgia the governor’s race was decided by 8 points while the Senate race was neck-and-neck.
   
   Speaking of Georgia, Herschel Walker performed 5 points worse than Governor Kemp on the Republican ticket – now that it’s just Walker will Republicans feel as energized to head back to the polls in a few weeks? Meanwhile Raphael Warnock won a runoff just two years ago; I’d give Warnock the edge in the runoff in part because he’s a better candidate.
   

3. Florida is now red, as Republicans won by 16 points. So is Ohio. Iowa too. These were quintessential swing states only 8 or 12 years ago. The battleground map is shifting to Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia joining the traditional swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Losing Florida in particular will have national implications for Dems.
   
   There is talk among Democrats of shifting the primary calendar for presidential nominating contests. Iowa’s case to go first gets weaker as it gets less purple. Nevada and New Hampshire are vying to go first with Michigan and Minnesota trying to replace Iowa.
   
   Of course, the above assumes that there’s a genuine Democratic primary, which I’m not sure there will be if Joe Biden runs for re-election. As I discuss with Zach, I think the DNC will be highly reluctant to entertain challengers to Joe with Trump coming up the other side. I think they might pre-empt any competitive nomination contest, as the RNC did in 2020. On the other side, I expect Trump to roll through a crowded primary field among the Republicans.

Looking ahead to 2024, the next cycle is a terrible map for Dems in the Senate. There are two seats where Trump won the state by 16 or 28 points – Montana and West Virginia – where Democratic Senators are up for re-election. That’s two brutally difficult races in a Senate where every seat counts. There is every reason to expect polarization to continue.

Election Day was not the wave that many expected, but the reality is our country remains split 50-50. Perhaps wave elections are a thing of the past as Americans become hardened into opposing camps. This is a lot of what Forward is trying to move us beyond. Political independents chose balance. One election ends, and now we have a year to prepare before the municipal elections of 2023.

We are building toward our first ever national convention next summer, and aim to have ballot access in 25+ states by the end of next year. These midterms have been a relief for many – they have been smooth for the most part – and we should appreciate the moment. Nevada's ballot initiative passing is a huge deal. The voters have given us an opening there, and elsewhere. 2023 and 2024 will be upon us soon. Can we get beyond the two parties in a deadlocked country? Now for us, the real work begins.