The Next January 6th

Photo courtesy of Blink O'fanaye

A year ago today, our country was shocked and horrified by the insurrection attempt on our nation’s Capitol.  The scenes were unthinkable – crowds surging through doors and windows looking for legislators with violent, deadly, intent.  

I have friends among those members of Congress, some of whom I texted.  One texted me back one word:  “Terrifying.”  At least five people died in connection with the insurrection and dozens of police officers were injured.  Four officers took their own lives in the months afterwards. As bad as it was, it could have been far worse if not for the heroism of Eugene Goodman and other Capitol officers. 

There was a brief moment afterwards when it seemed that our political leaders would coalesce in response to the horror.  But the polarization is too deep.  Only a bare handful of Republicans voted to impeach Donald Trump – those that did faced death threats -and the insurrection has been recast by some as a civil protest. 

This spasm of anger and terror was not a singular event.  We had been building toward the insurrection, or something like it, for years.  And instead of a fever that broke, the sickness is continuing. 

People are now waking up to the seriousness of the rift in our nation.  Journalists are taking the possibility of a Civil War more seriously.  Commentators make eloquent pleas to safeguard voting rights.  Appeal to our civility.  Improve our rhetoric.  Address disinformation. 

None of these things is enough, even if they were happening, which they aren’t. 

The reality is that we are slumping toward a recurrence of the insurrection.  No one is sure what the catalyst will be.  But we all sense that the tension is not dissipating as attitudes continue to harden. 

I won’t pretend that there is a measure that can cure us of our ills.  I expect that things will get rough and tumultuous in the days ahead.  But I am confident that a few things would help for real. 

The first is a shift in political incentives away from the extremes.  Right now 10% of Americans effectively elect 83% of representatives due to closed party primaries and safe seats.  If you’re in Congress, you find yourself placating the most hyperpartisan and extreme in your district rather than the general public.  Shifting to non-partisan open primaries and ranked choice voting would reward moderate candidates and improve the incentives of officeholders.  This can happen via ballot initiative in half of the states and via state legislatures in the others. 

Second is to move on from the duopoly.  In a two-sided political system, polarization will inevitably rise.  Today, 42% of each party regards their opponents as mortal enemies; they will thus accept all sorts of failings in their own leaders as better than the alternative.  A record 62% of Americans want to move on from the duopoly.  A genuinely multi-party system will sustainably improve the dynamic.  The shift to open primaries and ranked choice voting would allow new parties to emerge, eventually perhaps leading to multi-member districts. 

Last, those in power should rush to address the problems that are growing more serious around us every day.  The enhanced child tax credit brought millions of kids out of poverty.  Poverty is a solvable problem.  Yet even when poverty is briefly alleviated for millions the solution is taken away.  Our leaders respond to their own interests while people and communities struggle.  In that environment, terrible messages will find a willing audience. 

I had friends nearly lose their lives a year ago today.  January 6th, 2021 was both a horrifying chapter in our country’s history and a sign of things to come.  Our country requires a wholesale political transformation beyond the imagination of most of our leaders.  The question is whether we are willing to put aside the empty appeals and do the work required to disrupt and upgrade our current political system, or will the unthinkable scenes continue.