3 Predictions for 2022
Hello and Happy 2022! I hope the New Year is off to a great start!
This week on the podcast I make a few predictions for 2022. You can listen to an extended convo with Zach about them here.
The first is that I believe inflation will persist well into the New Year. There are a few reasons for this. First, people in industry are making pricing decisions on a bit of a lag, and some of those decisions are only just now incorporating higher prices for supplies and the like. Second, the environment is now less punitive for price increases, as if other firms in your industry are raising prices you can do so too with limited pushback from customers. Third, a lot of businesses are seeing higher labor costs, which they will want to pass along.
This will likely mean inflation sticks around in significant measure and puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates – which have been aberrantly low for over a decade now. This in turn could have negative repercussions for the stock market. We are now in something of a supercycle – 13 years and counting – that is closer to the end than the beginning.
I’ve been calling this environment “Growflation” – as you will see some continued economic growth hand-in-hand with inflation. I don’t believe the inflation we are seeing is transitory or will pass quickly.
My second prediction is going to sound like a cheat – a 3rd party contender for the presidency will announce their bid this year.
4 years ago, I announced I was running for President. I figured that I could use the time to get my name and message out. There was no purpose in waiting. It turns out that the energy and interest in a presidential run is pretty low more than 2 years in advance. But it likely was the right move because we learned a lot and developed the beginning of a following throughout the year. It’s somewhat easier to campaign in a vacuum.
I believe that someone else will have the same consideration set and get a jump on it, particularly if they don’t currently hold elected office. The most likely major party nominees right now are set to be Biden and Trump, both of whom have 50%+ of Americans against their runs, so there will be real interest in a different figure and voice.
Relatedly, the energy around 2024 will surge after the mid-terms in November, so enjoy the year while you can.
My third prediction is that this will be the final year of the pandemic. I know. It’s hard to envision given that omicron right now is sweeping the nation.
Here’s why. The average duration of a pandemic is three years. It’s tough to fathom, but we are about to begin our third year of Covid. If this pandemic holds to form this will be the final year.
Omicron right now is showing signs of being a highly contagious but milder variant. This suggests that most everyone will be exposed over time, which will lead to herd immunity.
Finally, the public attitude toward the pandemic is exhaustion. Most people are at their wit’s end and will have little appetite for anything other than personal common sense measures beyond this year.
So there you have it: Inflation, a 3rd party candidate and an end to the pandemic. If you want to hear Zach’s predictions and more on mine, you can check out the podcast here.
Happy 2022 – let’s make it a year to remember!!
- Andrew
