A Broken Congress

Great news – the federal government won’t run out of money this week!  Rejoice! 
 
That is literally what qualifies as tremendous news out of Congress today.  Speaker Michael Johnson has managed to squeeze a funding resolution through his narrow to nonexistent majority with the help of a host of Democrats.  The same handful of conservatives who ousted Kevin McCarthy are now plotting their revenge. 
 
Keep in mind that this resolution doesn’t last long – it merely kicks the can down the road until January when different spending levels are to be hashed out. 
 
As a sign of the times, former speaker Kevin McCarthy elbowed Tim Burchett, one of his ousters, in the hallways of Congress this week.  I guess he’s not over it.    
 
If you understood what is happening – or not happening - in Congress today you’d be appalled.  There’s a rule called the Hastert Rule that says nothing gets brought to the floor unless a majority of the majority party supports it.  That means that every member of the minority party can’t bring meaningful bills to the floor.  One member said to me, “If you’re in the minority party and don’t have an important committee assignment, you might as well be a piece of furniture.” 
 
The days of legislators from both parties wrangling a bipartisan agreement are long gone.  Instead, members are often presented with legislation with minutes or hours to review it before being asked to vote for it – with the expectation that of course they won’t vote for it.  Worse yet, that even happens to majority members sometimes, where they too will be asked to vote for laws they’ve barely had time to review, and the expectation is that they’ll sign off.   
 
The parties are more concerned with scoring points on each other than delivering good policy.  2 members wrote, “Why is our status as members of different political parties seemingly more potent than our shared love for America, our many areas of agreement, and our shared responsibility to solve problems and get results?  Why are we more often opponents than colleagues? . . . Because the system is built to tear us apart.  In American politics, winning isn’t winning unless the other side is losing . . . “
 
Presidential candidate and third-term Congressman Dean Phillips said, “Members spend 10,000 hours a week dialing for dollars.  It’s insane.  I’m the only member who has declined to fundraise, which means I have a lot more time on my hands to serve my constituents instead of asking people for money.” Many Congressmen spend more time on fundraising than legislating. 
 
This week on the podcast, I interview Kevin Kosar, who worked at Congress on the policy side for years before joining a thinktank and penning the book, “Congress Overwhelmed: The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform.” 
 
“Congress has been reducing its policymaking capacities for decades, just as they’ve needed to do the opposite,” Kevin says.  “They got rid of the Office of Technology Assessment in the 90s, just before technology started to take off.”  Kevin’s concerns began years ago.  “I started seeing hearings degenerate into theatre and posturing instead of fact-finding, and said ‘uh-oh.’  And it’s gotten much worse since then.”
 
What can be done to improve things?  Here, Kevin offers some hope.  “What is crazy is that it’s totally up to Congress how to run itself.  There’s nothing in the Constitution about how Congress operates; the rules have just developed over time and now they’re making everyone miserable.  They can be changed at any time by Congress itself.” 
 
Meanwhile, expect more tension and drama in January as the fragile Republican majority gets put to the test again.  Hopefully no more elbows get thrown. 
 
For my interview with political scientist Kevin Kosar about how to fix Congress click here.  To see how Forward is working on improving our politics, click here.  To check out the Dean Phillips presidential campaign, click here – I think Dean may be our best chance to avoid a Biden – Trump rematch. 

Caution

A couple months ago, I attended an open house for a property that was for sale.  We weren’t really looking, but sometimes those things are fun.  This was a property that you could imagine buying as an investment. 

The problem was that the numbers didn’t make any sense.  At what they were asking for, the income generation of the property as a rental was maybe 3.5%.  Mortgage rates today are more than twice that.  And you can get higher interest rates on high-yield savings accounts.  I concluded that the listing price was about 40% over what I would deem a good value.  In the weeks since, they’ve cut the price multiple times, still to no takers. 

On the flip side, you have buyers who feel frozen out of the market because prices remain too high and no one can afford a mortgage.  A young couple who had been house hunting until recently said to me, “We’ve given up looking for the time being.” 

I talked to a friend in commercial real estate in New York – think office buildings.  “It’s a mess,” he says.  “Every day’s a new issue or problem.  And we aren’t fully occupied, not to previous levels.  I’d consider selling, but I don’t think we could get fair value, in part because no one is sure what fair value is now on an office building in Manhattan except that it’s a lot lower than the last appraisal.”  The level of commercial real estate debt that comes due in the next 18 months is over $1 trillion. 

I had lunch with a friend who invests in startups.  She told a similar story.  “There are dozens of companies that raised money in 2021 at valuations that now they can’t justify.  There are going to be massive haircuts of 50% or more, and those are the companies that are able to access new money.  A lot of them won’t be able to.”  She saw a lot of dying companies or depressed entrepreneurs in the not-so-distant future. 

There are strikes in the news every day, whether it’s the UAW or the actors, though I’m thrilled that the latter strike was just resolved.  One reason the media feels so shrill is that a lot of those companies are struggling to make money – even flagship names like the Washington Post.  Student loan repayment has kicked back in after a multi-year forbearance.    

The Biden Administration is touting rosy economic numbers – but most Americans don’t feel good about the economy even if their personal situation is all right. 

Now, you could say that commercial real estate is only a thing in certain cities, and most people don’t work at startups or for a striking union or as a journalist – all true.  Residential real estate obviously affects a lot of people, and there are a ton of Americans who would like to buy or sell a home but can’t do so because of elevated mortgage rates. 

Here’s the point - most Americans still feel that prices are too high and they are constantly under some sense of financial pressure.  And these are the good times. 

I’ve been an entrepreneur in flush times and in tough times.  I’m seeing tons of signs that tough times are around the bend. 

You operate differently in different periods.  In good times, you invest in growth.  In times of contraction, you batten down the hatches and streamline.  You make different kinds of bets.  And maybe, sometimes you settle for the smaller holiday party.  It feels to me that the latter kind of time is coming soon.    

What does this mean for our politics? 

Continuity will be a tough sell.  Someone – let’s say President Biden – running on how good things are will have a difficult time.  Particularly if things go from okay, which is where I think the economy is now, to a rough stretch. 

In my opinion, a lot of Democrats feel committed to Joe Biden out of a sense of fear and caution.  He’s at least familiar and comforting. 

But riding an 81-year old incumbent with a 39% approval rating and a message of “4 more years” may be the exact opposite of what the majority of Americans want to hear next year.  What seems like the safe bet may be the riskiest bet of all. 

---- 

Who could be a better bet for the Dems against Trump?  Check out Dean Phillips, a 54-year old Congressman from Minnesota whom I believe in. 

Election Day

Hello, I hope that your week is going well. 
 
Tuesday was a big Election Day – voters from around the country made their voices heard on issues big and small. 
 
Forward Party had a great showing with 5 new elected officials in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Connecticut! It’s a tremendous sign as to what we will be able to accomplish in 2024. 
 
Nationally, Democrats put up significant wins in Virginia, Kentucky and New Jersey – this has led some to think that Joe Biden is in great shape for 2024. 
 
The problem is that Joe Biden has singular qualities and weaknesses that voters are tuned into - primarily his age and his stewardship of the economy.  Voting for a young governor in Kentucky or a state rep in Virginia is a different thing than voting for an 81-year old incumbent President. 
 
Indeed, new polls came out this week saying that Trump is ahead in the swing states.  The drumbeat is consistent enough that a picture is starting to form. 
 
When I was running for President, I would often be asked about polls, which I would dismiss as missing the true energy and enthusiasm.  But when the voting started, the polls tended to be pretty accurate. 
 
I think the polls are accurate about Joe Biden’s standing; when I talk to Independent voters or young people about Joe, they often make a pained expression and shake their heads.  I don’t think betting that will change is the right approach. 
 
I’ve been supporting Dean Phillips as an alternative to Joe Biden.  Dean is what most Americans want: a sane, moderate 54-year old presidential candidate who will work to make things better.  I joke that Dean should change his name to Generic Democrat, because polls show that Trump loses to a generic Democrat by 8 points.
 
Why run an 81-year old with a 39% approval rating when you have a better choice standing right in front of you? 
 
Let’s take the right lessons from Election Day.  And work for better choices.

To check out Dean Phillips, click here.  To see what Forward is doing in your area, click here. 

2024

It’s less than one year until Election Day 2024 – and the calendar is coming up on us quickly.  The Forward Party is engaged with local candidates around the country this week, which is awesome. 
 
I get asked all of the time what I think will happen in 2024 in the presidential race.  Let’s take a look first at the Republicans, as the third debate takes place on Wednesday.  The 5 candidates who have qualified are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Tim Scott, all debating in the shadow of Donald Trump.  Mike Pence dropped out last week, a sign of things to come. 
 
In aggregate polling, Donald Trump has a 46 point lead over Ron DeSantis, 59% to 13%. Nikki Haley is next at 7.5%.  She’s doing better in the early states but is still 40 points behind Trump.  Trump is the prohibitive favorite to be the Republican nominee as long as he’s walking around and eligible to run. 
 
Who would win between Trump and Biden in the general? 
 
Polls are roughly even.  Joe Biden’s chances of winning rose two weeks ago based on two things.  First, RFK Jr. left the Democratic primary and went Independent.  Polling consistently shows RFK Jr. in low double-digits and taking more from Donald Trump than Joe Biden in the general election; it’s why you’re going to see a lot of negative stories about RFK Jr. from the conservative press from now until Election Day.  In a close election, the 1 or 2 percentage points being sucked away from Trump could be significant. 
 
The second thing that you might have missed was Cornel West breaking up with the Green Party.  I thought Cornel West would take 1-3% as the Green Party candidate, mostly from Joe Biden.  Now, I don’t think he makes the ballot in more than a handful of states and will more or less be a non-factor (perhaps by design).  Each of these developments amounts to a 1 or 2 point swing to Biden. 
 
However, there are still ominous signs for Biden.  Recent polling shows Trump with a small lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.  The Biden campaign was so concerned that they spent millions of dollars on positive advertising in some of these states, a highly unusual and aggressive move this early in the cycle.  The ads didn’t seem to have any effect.  Apparently, “Bidenomics” is not a winning message.  Biden’s approval ratings are stuck between 39 and 42% and economic concerns are persistent with voters. 
 
Over two-thirds of voters are also concerned about Joe’s advanced age.  If you ask a random person about Joe Biden’s re-election bid, they are likely to simply shake their head and say, “He’s too old.”  Perhaps running an 81-year old with a 40% approval rate isn’t a winning formula. 
 
Last week a new candidate arrived on the scene making this very case – Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota.  Dean is a moderate Democrat who has been exhorting other Dems to run against Joe Biden out of concerns over his electability.  When no one else took on the challenge, Dean decided to run himself. 
 
I’m personally very bullish on Dean’s campaign and see him as our best chance to avoid a Biden vs. Trump rematch.  You can check out Dean’s campaign here.  I’ve donated and hope you consider doing so too. 
 
Most people will initially dismiss Dean, though there is reason to believe that he’ll be competitive.  The truth is we won’t really know until New Hampshire votes in January – Joe Biden will be competing as a write-in candidate there.  If Dean runs very strongly in New Hampshire, how will that impact other states?  What will the media response be?  It’s essentially a 3-month sprint.  If numbers are to be believed, Dean is speaking for the majority of voters, which bodes well for his growth trajectory. 
 
Barring a Dean Phillips insurgence, which would be truly epic, the truth is that both major parties are poised to field historically weak candidates.  A generic Republican – e.g., Nikki Haley - would, I believe, defeat Joe Biden.  A generic Democrat – one not saddled with doubts about age and vitality – would defeat Donald Trump. 
 
Can either party shake free of the inertia of a Trump – Biden rematch that most Americans don’t want?  Whichever party can do just that will almost certainly win; I am excited for the first poll that shows Dean Phillips defeating Trump by 8 points, simply by virtue of being a 54-year old moderate Democrat.  Winning doesn’t seem to be the top priority of either party anymore though, much as they might protest otherwise. 
 
Yet underneath the thin layer of conformity and careerism is the will of the American people, hungry for better options.  I’d love to see that hunger satisfied on either side.  We have 3 months to make it happen. 
 
To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here.  For the holidays I am offering to personalize and sign books to use as a gift for that special someone!  Click here and we will get them out by the holidays. 

Dean Phillips

The 2024 presidential field has a new contender – Dean Phillips, 3-term Democratic Congressman from Minnesota.   

Dean is 54, which makes him a full 26 years younger than Joe Biden and 22 years younger than Donald Trump.  After attending Brown University he got his MBA and ran a family business and then a gelato company – Talenti - that was bought by Unilever.  He ran for Congress in a district that hadn’t had a Democrat in almost 60 years.  His slogan was, “Everyone’s invited.” 

I first met Dean last year at an American Promise event that was about overturning Citizens United.  “I’m the only member of Congress who refuses to dial for dollars,” Dean said.  “I kind of thought you were here to pass laws, not fundraise.”  As you can imagine, I liked him immediately.  

Months later, Dean called me in part to relay his concerns about the Democratic primary, or lack thereof.  “I support Joe, but I feel like we are playing a very dangerous game in 2024 riding on his health.  One bad week and we hand the country to Trump.”  

He’s not alone in his concerns.  Nearly 70 percent of Democratic voters believe Biden is too old to serve a 2nd term, and 67 percent say they’d prefer another candidate.  

So why hasn’t there been a primary challenge with numbers like that, outside of Marianne Williamson, RFK Jr. (since turned Independent) and Cenk Uygur?  

The DNC has closed ranks behind President Biden. There won’t be any primary debates and South Carolina – which Joe won – was moved to first in the primary season. The word has gone out to prominent Dems like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and JB Pritzker to wait until 2028.  And the press hasn’t treated previous challengers to Biden with any legitimacy – indeed, the press has taken turns attacking or ignoring anyone who has tried to interrupt Joe’s glide path.  

To Dean’s credit, his first choice was not to run.  He openly went around to other figures saying, “Someone more prominent than me should run against Joe, for the good of the country.”  Only when no one else bit did he really move toward taking the plunge.  “If he were 15 to 20 years younger it would be a no-brainer to nominate him, but considering his age it’s absurd we’re not promoting competition but trying to extinguish it.”  

Will Dean actually force a genuine competition?  

There are a number of reasons why I think Dean Phillips could do just that.  

First, candidates with a reason to run do better.  Dean is genuinely on a mission to provide the country a positive alternative to a Trump-Biden rematch that he views as disastrous.  He’s not someone who had this planned as a next step.  He’s intrinsically motivated and it will show. 

Second, he’s a good guy and a strong campaigner.  When people see him and hear him they’ll like him.  He likes other people too.  Believe it or not, that actually makes a difference.  

Third, he’s rich, with a net worth of $50 - $80 million.  He’ll have the resources to compete.  

Fourth, the press is bored.  Dean is getting mainstream press coverage like this Atlantic profile and I think that will continue.  

Fifth, it’s possible that Dean emboldens another major Democrat to join the primary, which would kickstart a genuine process.  Mission accomplished.  

Last, Dean is actually giving the American people what they want in a presidential candidate – a sane, moral 54-year old who is a real person.  How many people do you know who have wished for just that sort of figure to appear?  

Now, it’s going to be an uphill climb as every establishment Democrat has piled behind Joe even though they are nervous about his age in private.  There’s a hierarchy that is being upset and it’s not going to take it well.  But the mission is noble and has the potential to deliver us into a better future. 

I know Dean and admire him.  I’ve donated to his campaign.  You can donate here.   

Is it possible to improve upon the Trump – Biden rematch that so many of us fear is inevitable?  At least one person is staking his reputation on the answer being yes, and I hope for all of our sakes that he’s right.  I’ll be working to make it so. 

The Human-Centered Economy

Hello, I hope that you and yours are holding up in a difficult time for the world. 
 
This past week, I spoke on a panel about AI.  I was asked, “How do we build a prosperous economy for everyone in an era of Artificial Intelligence that can do a lot of work faster than most people can imagine?” 
 
This was actually the central theme of my presidential campaign in 2020.  If anything, the trends have picked up steam.  You can see the proportion of repetitive cognitive jobs – those most likely to be replaced by AI – already starting to decrease.  44% of U.S. jobs are either repetitive manual or repetitive cognitive and thus at least somewhat subject to automation. 

Let’s say that you agree this is a concern – indeed many parents are increasingly anxious about what field to suggest to their children as tasks that were viewed as extraordinarily secure – like coding for example – may be performed by AI in the not-so-distant future. 

I answered, “The economy is going to get more difficult and punitive for everyday Americans.  Only about 35% of the country is comprised of college graduates.  The other two-thirds are in industries like retail and manufacturing that have already seen disruption due to both automation and globalization.  The question is, how do we share the bounty of all of the value that AI will generate to assist in what will be a generational transition?” 

This will be familiar to many of you who followed my presidential campaign.  I’m still chasing the same problems I wrote about in my book “The War on Normal People.“

We went through a massive disruption during COVID.  The U.S. government printed and issued $5 trillion over 2020 and 2021 to keep states and cities and the economy afloat.  This led to inflation that we are still dealing with through higher interest rates that will in turn force a revaluation of many assets in the weeks ahead, particularly commercial real estate and housing. 

Many mistakenly equate the $5 trillion with stimulus checks.  $5 trillion is about $15,000 per American.  The average American got maybe $2,000 in stimulus checks, or less than 14% of that total.  Where did the rest go?  It went to the financial system, COVID infrastructure and treatment, large corporations like airlines and cruise ship companies, state and municipal budgets, the payroll protection program for small businesses and on and on. 

When people ask me about UBI, I refer them to the enhanced child tax credit of 2021, which lowered child poverty rates in the U.S. from about 11% to 5% and had positive effects on millions of families in terms of health, education, lack of domestic abuse and every other indicator.  We discontinued the enhanced child tax credit in 2022, and child poverty shot back up to 12%.  It worked, but soon fell prey to political dysfunction. 

I still have people in D.C. working on reviving the child tax credit – if you want to help them they’re at https://humanityforward.com/. 

I’m now convinced that we will never be able to address the economic and social challenges of AI unless we first overcome our political polarization – I wrote about this in Forward.  That’s why I started the Forward Party, which is now active in 48 states with tens of thousands of volunteers and dozens of affiliated elected officials.  This week we announced a merger with the South Carolina Independence Party, which will immediately give us ballot access and recognition in a key state.  The path to a human-centered economy will not occur through either of the current major parties, but only through a political realignment that makes solving our problems necessary to stay in power. 

To the question I was asked about AI, I responded, “Look, there are a few steps.  First, make the American political system rational and focused on actually solving real problems.  Second, channel our collective resources to get the boot off of people’s throats and move us toward a mindset of abundance not scarcity.  Our economy’s now $25 trillion, or $75k a head, which is enough to address extreme poverty, and AI could make abundance real.  Last, move the economy beyond capital efficiency – where we will have more and more trouble competing - toward things like caring for others, or arts and creativity.  In other words, make the economy work for us and measure it accordingly.  Our problem now is that our economy is growing but most people are not thriving in terms of wellbeing or ability to be excited about their future.” 

My questioner liked this.  He asked, “Okay, I understand that the stimulus checks were overblown in terms of inflation.  But how do you implement a whole new human-centered economy without it being inflationary?” 

I responded, “You’d want multiple currencies.  Imagine a currency for arts and creativity that you earn every time you produce a mural or perform at a public event.  And then another one for caregiving, nurturing and tutoring.  People who pursue these activities would earn a new currency that they could trade for goods or services.  You could create whole new economies and connections that encourage people to do things that many of them would prefer to do anyway, and the inflationary effect would be limited to whatever is redeemed in a particular period.  Accruing these new currencies could be something you’re proud of publicly in a way that you wouldn’t be with dollars.” 

Some people got very excited about this, as there were a lot of creatives in the crowd.  It is, in my opinion, one of the only ways to produce human flourishing as AI performs more and more work. 

This is a difficult time.  Even in very difficult times, it’s vital to imagine what a brighter future could be and how we get there.  Without that, how ever will we get there? 

This week on the podcast I sit down with futurist and founder of the X Prize Peter Diamandis to talk about the path to UBI, democracy reform and more.  For that conversation, click here.  To be part of the realignment of our politics around solutions like Ranked Choice Voting, join Forward Party here.  

Uncanceling the American Mind

This week on the podcast I interview Greg Lukianoff and Rikki Schlott on their new book, “The Canceling of the American Mind:  Cancel Culture Undermines Trust, Destroys Institutions, and Threatens Us All – But There is a Solution.”  Greg Lukianoff co-wrote “The Coddling of the American Mind” with Jonathan Haidt and leads a foundation while Rikki Schlott is a columnist for the New York Post. 

“The Coddling of the American Mind” described three great untruths that have been plaguing young people in recent times:

      1. The Untruth of Fragility:  What doesn’t kill you makes you weaker.
      2. The Untruth of Emotional Reasoning:  Always trust your feelings.
      3. The Untruth of Us Vs. Them:  Life is a battle between good people and evil people. 

To this, Greg and Rikki have added a new great untruth:

       4. The Untruth of Ad Hominem: Bad People Only Have Bad Opinions.  If you can show someone to be ‘bad’ by any measure, you don’t have to listen to them anymore. 

This has become an – unfortunately – popular way to attack arguments you might not like, by categorizing the speaker as representing the political opposition (e.g. “conservative” or “woke.”)  Associated to this are sometimes adverse professional and personal consequences to the undermined and canceled. 
 
Attempts to cancel individuals on college campuses have surged in recent years.  In 2020 the number of speaker disinvitations, attempts to fire professors, and other on-campus responses shot up to 1,500 from 500 in 2013.  There have been 946 attempts to get professors punished during the last 8 years, which have completely shifted the culture of being a professor. 
 
This isn’t restricted to campuses.  84% of Americans think it’s a problem that some Americans don’t speak freely in everyday situations due to fear of retaliation.  And 62% of Americans did not personally feel comfortable expressing their opinions in public.  The media, non-profits, corporations and even public health authorities are all subject to pressures to conform.  “Cancel Culture is happening at such a scale that historians will be studying it in fifty to a hundred years, much like we study the Red Scare and the Alien and Sedition Acts,” Greg and Rikki write. 

They go on, “In our all-consuming culture war, fighters have two methods of attack.  The first is going through the process of engagement and persuasion – and accepting the possibility that you might not succeed in convincing most people.  It’s a long and arduous road.”
 
“The second tactic is attacking your opponents on an ad hominem personal level – digging up things to discredit them, making them fear for their jobs, and ‘winning’ arguments simply by making too scared to say what they really think.  This latter route is much quicker.  Although it won’t actually change minds, you can surely intimidate enough people into pretending they agree with you.” 
 
So what can be done?  Greg and Rikki delve into solutions, from raising kids to be more nuanced in their thinking and treatment of others to reforming schools to reflect intellectual diversity and curiosity to keeping companies from becoming political environments.  But the essential message is to treat each other like human beings.  Indeed, Greg and Rikki detail some of the stories of people who had their lives upended by an accusation who suffer from it for years afterwards, well after most of the online mob have long since moved on.  On the other end of the social media avatar is a living, breathing human being with a family and a livelihood, which itself is a lesson worth remembering. 
 
For my interview of Greg and Rikki click here.  For their book “The Canceling of the American Mind” click here.  To get beyond political polarization check out Forward Party.  

War in Israel

It’s been a terrible time in the world as Hamas viciously attacked Israel this weekend killing hundreds of civilians in brutal fashion. Watching the videos unfold was nightmarish, a grotesque display of violence and callous indifference to human life.

The conflict will only grow as Hamas has taken over a hundred hostages and Israel has mobilized hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists in preparation for a ground operation. The U.S. has sent an aircraft carrier to the region in order to support Israel and discourage other hostile actors.

Hamas’s attack came on the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War and was clearly planned for months. That conflict decades ago resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and wounded in less than 3 weeks.

I fear that this conflict will extend well past that length of time and incur even greater human cost.

President Joe Biden gave an impassioned speech about America’s continued commitment to Israel. At the same time, House Republicans are engaged in a contest to determine the next Speaker and key military appointments – including two picks for the Joint Chiefs and officers leading US forces in the Middle East – are stalled in the Senate for political reasons. American institutions are sputtering and our dysfunction may hurt our ability to help a close ally in its time of need.

Lost in the shuffle right now are continued aid to Ukraine and making sure the government can pay its bills in mid-November, priorities that seemed very serious before the prospect of war in the Middle East descended and put everything in a different perspective.

The human suffering is devastating. I know people who are close to the conflict and the personal toll is clear and heartbreaking. Parents looking for family members and frantic calls that sometimes go unanswered. The comparison has been made between this attack and 9/11 22 years ago, and I think the comparison is apt; the unthinkable has been made real and the world is changed in a way that will never again be the same.

Prayers for the families affected and a safe journey home for those who are now apart from their loved ones,

American Dysfunction

This week, history was made as Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the House. He was voted out by a combination of 8 conservative Republicans and all Democrats at a count of 216 – 210. No Speaker has ever been removed before.

As usual, there is a Republican point-of-view, a Democratic point-of-view, and then the reality the rest of us live in.  From the Republican point-of-view, this is a small clutch of hardliners using their leverage to oust a Speaker who was insufficiently ideological for doing such things as funding the government’s continued operations.  From the Democratic point-of-view, this is casting out a political opponent and exposing the Republican Party as incapable of holding a true majority. 

For the rest of us – it’s wondering what it means and what happens next.   

Again, this has never happened before.  Anyone who says they know what happens next is simply guessing. 

Here’s the math – there are 221 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the House (2 seats are presently vacant).  A majority has to vote in a Speaker – so 217 votes.  That means that any Republican candidate can only afford to lose 4 votes. 

It took Kevin McCarthy 15 ballots and four days to get elected and he was nearly unopposed.  How will it go this time?  It’s hard to imagine any Republican getting to near-unanimity in today’s Republican caucus.  We could be in for many days of political spectacle. 

It’s possible that if no one can get to 217, Democrats extend a lifeline to a particular candidate to get him or her over the hump.  That hasn’t been in the cards – and would obviously be a turnoff to some Republicans – but it might be the only resolution if the process drags on long enough. 

The new deadline is November 17th, when the government again runs out of money.  We need a Speaker who can pass a spending resolution by then – bearing in mind that passing a spending resolution is what got Kevin McCarthy booted.  Investors now are beginning to factor in political risk into their evaluations of America’s ability to meet its obligations. 

I’ve been asked what this means for most Americans.  We don’t have a functioning legislature until further notice – the House of Representatives doesn’t have an organized majority. It means that American institutions continue to run aground in whole new ways that seem implausible before the fact and then obvious afterwards.  For those hoping our leaders find common ground and bridge the divide, this is a powerful signal to the opposite, that political incentives are now more powerful than governing incentives.  It also means a more uncertain business environment. 

There are many people celebrating Kevin McCarthy’s fall because they didn’t like Kevin McCarthy.  I’m not a fan of his – but I remain a big fan of his country.  His country deserves better leadership than this.  I think Democrats made a mistake in siding with his ousters, even if it seems like a short-term political win by making Republicans look incoherent.  Because it also makes America look – accurately - polarized and dysfunctional. 

Perhaps the House will elect a new leader and business will continue on as usual in a matter of days.  It’s more likely though that those who toppled McCarthy have developed an appetite for power, even negative power.  The real question is if a Speaker can be booted by 8 extremists and his political opponents, who will be safe in the same seat? 

If you can’t even take the basics for granted anymore, that’s a frightening place to be. 

To join Forward to provide a new pathway in our politics and change the incentives, click here.  We are needed more than ever. 

What Has Zach Been Up To?

Hello, I hope that you’re having a great week!  I spent last week at the American Democracy Summit in LA, which was a blast with tons of folks from Forward. 
 
Many of you know my campaign manager Zach Graumann, who wrote the book Longshot about the presidential campaign.  Prior to that, Zach worked on Wall Street and started a nonprofit for underprivileged kids called SuitUp. 

“I realized the limitations of the non-profit space,” Zach said.  “I mean, they do great work.  But I had a hard time shaking the feeling that the problems are still there.”  This misgiving was amplified by his day job advising philanthropists on how best to give to charity.  “Even people with incredible wealth struggle to figure out how to give enough to make progress on a particular problem.” 
 
He also noticed that companies saw philanthropy as an add-on.  “A lot of the time, a company will give to a cause or an organization, but then spend more money telling the public about the nice thing they did.”  They also had a tough time engaging their employees; it’s one reason why his organization, SuitUp grew so fast:  “We offered high-quality volunteering opportunities to employees, which was unusual for a lot of them.” 
 
Meanwhile, for individuals who want to find a way to help, non-profits aren’t always set up to receive their efforts.  “For some orgs, like a soup kitchen, the way you help out is very straightforward.  But a lot of them don’t really know what to do with you.  And if you show up once, you don’t show up again.  That’s why only one-quarter of people volunteer each year, even though three-quarters of people say we want to.” 
 
Zach is a lot like me, in that he is always looking to both help people and solve a worthwhile problem – it’s why we connected in 2020.  Now, he’s started a company to address all of these problems:  Samarity.  
 
What is Samarity?  In Zach’s words, “Samarity is a way to channel more corporate dollars to charities by giving them something they want – consumer intelligence.  Companies right now spend billions a year on market research.  You know who knows a lot about us?  We do.  And would we share some of that information to benefit our favorite charities?  Imagine if you could just fill out a survey and your favorite charity gets between $1 and $5, maybe more.” 
 
Samarity is now piloting this with 100 non-profits.  “The non-profit sends out a survey to their supporters, and we pay them for each response.  We then turn around and package the insights – anonymized – to corporations.  Some of our non-profits are already receiving thousands of dollars for doing something that a lot of them want to do anyway; the great thing is that the non-profit can ask any questions it wants to so they actually get better information about their own supporters.  Companies win because they get better consumer insight more cost-effectively.  And non-profit supporters win because they get to help their favorite cause with just a little bit of their time.” 
 
This first product is just the beginning.  “We want a world where anytime someone does something good - volunteers, tutors a kid, does something positive – they get recognized and rewarded.  Right now it’s filling out a survey, but eventually it might be helping your neighbor.”  I love how Samarity is trying to solve a big problem in a way that benefits everyone.  Its success would drive millions of dollars to non-profits and maybe move us one step closer to an economy that is centered on people doing good. 
 
For my interview with Zach click here.  To get involved with what Zach is building, you can email their team at hello@samarity.com.  You can also sign-up any nonprofit you love here, so they can start earning new donations.  Lastly, you can even take a quick survey yourself to unlock some charity donations here if you want to do something good today. 😃  Most importantly, Zach got married this summer so feel free to congratulate him!