What’s going to happen?

Election Day is only a couple weeks away.  What is going to happen? 
 
This week on the podcast I interview veteran pollster Frank Luntz to get his assessment.  “It’s going to come down to seven states, and each of them is essentially tied right now,” Frank says.  I asked him whether they all could wind up trending in one direction.  He said, “Each state is going to come down to different types of voters – Latinos in Nevada and Arizona for example – so they’re not necessarily correlated to each other.” 
 
The polls are very tight across the board.  “Kamala has raised and is spending $1 billion and it hasn’t broken the tie,” Frank observes.  After a surge as the nominee, Kamala Harris has settled into a point where it’s neck-and-neck.  Perhaps it’s not surprising that in such a divided country we are faced with a 50-50 race. 
 
“Trump is talking too much; he’s reminding everyone of why they wanted to move on from him.  And Kamala Harris is communicating too little for those who want to know what she’d do as President.  Whoever course corrects the most in the final days will have an advantage,” Frank says. 
 
I’ll confess that I’ve had a sense of foreboding regarding Trump’s return for quite some time.  If you’ve kept up with me, you know that I’ve been concerned about declining institutions and a general disintegration of the American way of life since I wrote The War on Normal People years ago during my presidential run.  I remember being surprised both by Trump’s victory in 2016 and by how close it was in 2020; each time he overperformed his polling.  It seemed that people either didn’t want to share they were voting for Trump or his voters weren’t being properly measured. 
 
I asked Frank whether the measurement errors of the past had been addressed.  He said that pollsters have tried to adjust their methods of gathering responses but there is no way to know until Election Day. 
 
Will Trump overperform the polls again in November?  If so, he almost certainly wins.  
 
I feel like the world has changed so much in the last number of years.  Trust and cohesion are down.  Alternate realities flourish on just about every social media platform.  Americans feel very ornery. 
 
I hope that Kamala edges it out.  Frank said, “I believe Harris very well could win at the margins, because the American people have never voted in someone who has a track record like Donald Trump in 2024.”  I spoke to someone who was around Donald Trump recently who shared that “his mental decline is evident.”  Yikes. 

On the other hand, Kamala’s recent media strategy suggests to me that they’re trying to change things up. 
 
It’s going to be close, that’s for sure.  We’re a deeply polarized country where 43 of the 50 states are already spoken for, and the voters in 7 states will decide which path we take as a nation.
 
I’ll be talking to my fair share of those voters.  The Forward Party Election Night Watch Party will be in Philadelphia.  If you know folks in PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, or NC feel free to gently reach out.  They’re in the driver’s seat.  I hope they choose wisely for the rest of us.    
 
For my interview with Frank click here.  To check out the local candidates Forward is supporting including in PA, NV, and NC click here.  To join us for the Forward Election Night Watch Party in Philadelphia click here.  In case you can't make it, I'll also be co-hosting a virtual rally with Open Primaries today at 6:00 PM EST to talk with campaigns around the country at the forefront of democracy reform.  History is being made in November one way or the other.