2023
Hello, and Happy 2023!
As someone who screws up the date for the first two weeks of any New Year, it feels funny to be talking about 2023. Yet here we are!
This week on the podcast I discuss the year ahead with Zach Graumann. A few big questions we discuss: will there be a recession? What’s going on in DC? How does the 2024 race shape up? (I know, but expect a new Republican presidential candidate every month of this year through July) And what else do we see coming in the next 12 months?
Most important for Zach, he’s getting married this year! If you see him, tell him how lucky he is.
On to our thoughts for 2023:
I expect economic headwinds to be significant, including a recession this year. I talk to a number of CEOs and they are pulling back. Investors see a host of businesses that were designed for a low-interest rate/easy money environment that will have massive struggles now that money is tougher to come by. Friends in real estate see a gap between what values supposedly are and what people will pay now that mortgage rates are 6 – 8%. VCs still have capital to invest – some of it was allocated years ago – but they’re driving harder bargains and not chasing deals. Inflation is still hovering around 5%, which could spur further tightening.
It all looks like a transition year. Transitions are often painful. What does that mean for you? Feel free to see this as a year to get a little conservative with your decision-making and reduce risks. Opportunities will come.There’s a new Speaker of the House. And his name is . . . Kevin McCarthy we think? It’s up in the air because the Republican majority – with only 5 votes to spare – has yet to entirely coalesce around him or anyone else. It suggests a very muddy legislative environment where very little will get done.
Most people don’t understand just how much Congress is controlled by the party leaders at this point; one senior Congressperson said to me that the “average member who doesn’t have a gavel in his hand (running a committee) might as well be a piece of furniture.” What happens when the party with the majority won’t play ball with itself? Do some Republicans splinter off with moderate Democrats to form a coalition in the middle? It may genuinely be the only way to accomplish anything, even relatively routine legislative tasks. On that note . . .Kyrsten Sinema just declared herself an Independent. Joe Manchin – who is up for re-election in 2024 in a state that Trump won by 38 points – is noncommittal whether he will stay a Democrat. Lisa Murkowski just won re-election while endorsing the Democratic House candidate Mary Peltola, thanks largely to Alaska’s non-partisan primaries and ranked choice voting rules that make the parties less dominant. Could we see a fulcrum of Independent Senators that become necessary to pass anything in a 49-48-3 Senate? And what bills are even going to be up for Senate consideration from the Republican House?
On the Republican side for the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump’s launch has not gone well. I expect to see Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, Larry Hogan, Francis Suarez, Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, Tulsi Gabbard, and a few others declare for the White House by June. The first Republican debate will likely take place in August of this year with one a month through the end of the year. Voting starts in Iowa in February of ’24.
As you can see, you’re looking at 9 or 10 candidates off the bat – Zach puts the over/under at 15. Trump can still win just by hanging onto his base – he only got 35% of the vote in the early states in 2016. If the other candidates divide the vote he could still easily roll. He also still has control of most of the state parties, whose winner-takes-all delegate rules could help Trump a lot. The question is whether Trump genuinely has the energy to run a campaign for 14 months; he already seems tired and disinterested, and his social media shitposting is relegated to propping up Truth Social instead of driving narratives on Twitter. His act is old and stale and he doesn’t seem to have the mojo or motivation to conjure up a new one.
On the Democratic side, I expect Joe Biden to declare in the Spring and then other Democrats to fall in line. The DNC is shifting South Carolina to first which will inoculate Joe against any challengers. I also expect the DNC to shortcircuit any competition who might declare (e.g., Nina Turner, Marianne Williamson), similar to what the RNC did for Trump in 2020 when they canceled early state primaries, though not quite as egregious. Think canceling debates unless a competitor exceeds . . . 25% in polling, rising as necessary.
If Joe doesn’t run then a scrum will immediately emerge on the Democratic side. But at this point it’s going to be up to Joe. Yes, he’ll be 82 at the end of 2024.Will there be a third party challenge for the presidential in 2024? No Labels has already raised and spent millions to get ballot access. A lot will depend on who the nominees are or look to be. If it’s Joe vs. Trump the rematch then there almost certainly will be another candidate; 58% of Americans don’t like either of those choices. That decision may not happen until 2024 though, as the general election debates don’t occur until September ’24 and the Republican nominee won’t become clear until early that year.
These are some of the things on our minds for 2023; Zach and I also do a little foreshadowing of things we are working on in our convo. As you can tell, one of the themes for the year ahead is political dysfunction – if you’d like to help build a new alternative, check out what we are doing at Forward, which is growing every day. There’s a lot on tap for 2023, including municipal elections, ranked choice voting campaigns starting this month in CT, getting ballot access and more.
Fundamentally, how we do in the year ahead will be mostly up to us. Let’s take advantage of the chance to turn the page in our own lives, where it matters most. Hope 2023 is off to a tremendous start already for you and yours! Resolve to make it a great one!
