The Wind is Shifting
Hello, I hope all is great on your end! Hard to believe the summer only has days left.
I projected November about a month ago. For a number of months it has looked bleak for House Democrats. They have a narrow majority of just a few seats and the in-power party traditionally loses about 20 seats during a mid-term. Biden’s popularity was abysmally low. Prices at the pump were historically high. The enthusiasm gap between parties was about 17 points favoring Republicans.
More recently, things have changed. Voters have apparently distinguished between Biden and the rest of the Democratic Party. The generic party ballot has gone from plus-3 Republican to plus-1 Democrat in the last 3 months.
Perhaps the clearest sign was that Democrat share of the vote in the Washington state Senate primary – typically indicative of Democratic turnout nationally - was 55.4%, closer to the 58.7% peak in 2016 than the 48.5% in the Democratic wipeout of 2010. This was echoed in the Kansas referendum that defended abortion rights in a red state.
I had dinner with someone very close to the Democratic Party, and he expressed that the numbers in 37 swing districts they track had all turned positively for Democrats in the past month, particularly in terms of fundraising. On another note, Republicans earlier in the year were targeting a red wave of up to 50 seats, which may have led them to spend money in places where it turns out they didn’t have a great chance of winning. I’m sure they’re pulling back now.
The Senate races have similarly trended positively for Democrats, with some flawed Republican candidates increasing Dem prospects in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. The Republicans Senate Committee just committed $28 million to support JD Vance in Ohio against Tim Ryan in a state that Trump won by 8 points. This is not money they wanted to spend – they’ve actually canceled ad buys in some other states that are competitive. JD Vance won with only 32% of the vote in a multi-candidate primary.
Note that this all happened even before the Inflation Reduction Act/climate and health care bill passed, which will energize some Democrats and give leaders some real accomplishments to talk about (though obviously the impact of the bill won’t be felt for some time). The White House is planning a national tour post-Labor Day including Cabinet members to make the case for both Democrats and the Administration.
On the flip side, Trump continues to dominate the Republican Party, and every time he appears in the news it’s harder for Republicans to divorce him from the thoughts of voters. Trump remains a good way to motivate Democrats.
I’ll confess – I thought that the Democrats’ chances of keeping the House this year were basically nonexistent. 538 still has the chances on the low side – about 22%. If Republicans win the House legislation will cease and we will see Hunter Biden laptop hearings. But now I think there’s a strong chance the Democrats keep the Senate and make the House competitive. This is a lot different than even a month ago.
Of course, the action really will heat up between Labor Day and Election Day. A lot can happen. But the momentum seems to be on the Democrats’ side. If it continues, they could potentially defy history.
The Forward Party is continuing to grow by leaps and bounds. I am looking forward to the Texas Convention in Houston on September 24th! We will be getting out there to support good candidates of every party – Democrat, Independent and Republican – and would love to have you join us!
Earlier this week Kim Iversen explained the Forward Party on Sabrina Salvati’s podcast better than just about anyone. You can see the video here.
