The Presidential Field Forms
The past week was a big week for the Presidential field. Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum declared as Republicans. Chris Sununu decided against a run. Cornel West also declared in the People’s Party as a 3rd party candidate. And of course Trump was indicted by the DOJ for mishandling classified documents.
In the short run, other Republican candidates are rallying to Trump’s side while hoping his legal troubles make him seem increasingly unelectable in the general election.
People aren’t giving any of the 3 new Republican candidates much hope. I agree on Mike Pence – it’s very hard to see the appeal of someone who was Trump’s loyal sidekick only to break with the base and strike out on his own against his old boss. The evangelical base will be split among a number of candidates and Pence’s base is unclear.
Some feel the same way about Chris Christie. I was on a panel with Chris Christie a number of months ago and I think he can contribute a lot to the race. Unlike some others, he’s done this before. He fills a room. He has a mission. He’s tough, battle-hardened and can crack a joke. And he has been gearing up to give it to Trump on a debate stage for literally years.
Having been on the debate stage myself, it’s an odd environment. Most people will come across as phony or rehearsed if they mount an attack. Chris Christie will seem entirely natural. That will go a very long way. He’s going to have all sorts of memorable exchanges – if he gets there.
The first Republican debate is on August 23rd – the criteria to make it are 1% in 3 polls and 40,000 individual donors. Only 5 candidates seem assured of making the first debate: Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, and Scott. Christie should make the polling but will struggle to get 40,000 individual donors in 10 weeks.
Doug Burgum has a fascinating profile; he sold Great Plains Software out of North Dakota to Microsoft for $1.1 billion in 2001 and stayed there through 2007. 9 years later he ran for Governor as an outsider and won twice. He has a combination of vast wealth and political experience that could make him a factor if everything clicks. His campaign video seemed tailor made for Iowa in particular.
Money has a ton of advantages. You don’t have to waste time fundraising; other candidates will disappear from the trail regularly to hit the money centers. You can hire a top-notch team. You can spend online to grow the following. But money also is a barrier to support in that no one wants to give to the campaign and candidate that is super rich.
Burgum, like Christie, will have a tough time getting 40,000 donors by August 21 and he will probably struggle to get 1% in polls too. He at least has some fans in North Dakota as the current governor that can give him a boost to his donor numbers.
Chris Sununu, like Larry Hogan before him, saw this field and thought that he’d be splitting the anti-Trump vote. Look for Chris to try and help non-Trump candidates wherever he can. The conventional wisdom is it’s Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and everybody else. Other candidates will be trying to break into the conversation.
On the Democratic side there will be no debates even as RFK Jr. and Marianne Williamson climb in the polls. And now Cornel West is running with the People’s Party.
One thing that most people don’t realize – in most states it’s a lot easier to run for President as an Independent candidate than it is on a party line. Cornel is making a very specific choice, as People’s Party has to get on the ballot for someone to vote for Cornel.
Forward Party is going through a similar process trying to get party recognition and ballot access around the country. We have party recognition in six states, executive committees in twelve and state chapters in forty-eight. If you’d like to sign up to help, click here. We would love for you to join our efforts!
I sometimes catch wind of what different candidates are going to do; some of them call me up to take my temperature ahead of time. I’ve heard from several others who are considering running. I didn’t know Cornel was declaring until the day of. This probably means that more candidates are on the way. Trump’s second indictment makes that all the more likely.
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