The Mechanic
Hello, I hope that your summer has ended on a high! Labor Day means back to school.
The next 64 days are going to be busy as Election Day is just about two months away. The top of the ticket gets all of the attention but there are many other races under the radar that could be pivotal.
What would you say if I told you that an Independent is running for Senate against an Incumbent in Nebraska and is now virtually tied? That is the case for Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran, mechanic and labor leader who is running against Deb Fischer, a Republican incumbent who is not terribly popular. “People in Nebraska are tired of politics as usual. There’s no love lost for our current leaders. Anytime I talk to someone in person they get excited as soon as they hear about me and the campaign. That’s why I spend every day driving around the state talking to voters. We are growing every day. If we get the resources to get the message out, we are going to win.”
I’ve met with Dan and he’s the real deal; a fed-up 49-year-old military veteran who wants to change things for the better. Imagine a real-life mechanic as a U.S. Senator. “Every day, I roll up my sleeves to fix something. No institution in America needs fixing more than the United States Senate.” It’s a very appealing message.
Can Dan win? His opponent, Deb Fischer, is 73 years old, not terribly popular and hasn’t been meaningfully opposed in 12 years. There is no Democrat in the race. The usual playbook in this situation is to try and paint the Independent as the minority party. But Dan doesn’t feel like a conventional Democrat given his military background and man-of-the-people profile.
Dan’s race reminds me of Evan McMullin’s race in Utah two years ago. If you recall, Evan was an Independent military veteran running against the incumbent Mike Lee. The Democrats wisely decided not to run a candidate because in Utah the Democrat is something of a sacrificial lamb.
Evan got 43% of the vote in 2022, losing to Mike Lee who got 53%. Still, that 10 point margin was 10 percent closer than the margin Trump beat Biden by in Utah. That’s a big difference. Running an Independent is the recipe for introducing competition where there seems to be none possible.
It’s a similar situation in Nebraska, a state Trump won by 19 points. It turns out that Utah and Nebraska are typical in that 36 of the 50 states are essentially dominated by one party. Hence, the general elections in those states tend to be formalities.
That makes for bad incentives and unmotivated leadership. Why rock the boat if you’re going to coast to re-election?
In Nebraska, the Democrats are also wisely stepping aside and ceding the field to Dan.
Will the outcome be different this time? Every race is different, and at some point the Independent candidate will break through. Dan happens to be pro-choice, which is going to help in November.
If Dan were to win it would be a political earthquake. I’ve donated to Dan’s campaign and hope that you’ll consider doing so as well.
He’s right that politics as usual won’t cure what ails us. An independent in Nebraska becoming a U.S. Senator would help. Let's help make it happen.
Want to support candidates like Dan? Check out the Forward Party. We are working on local races around the country.
