The Debate
The presidential debate took place on Tuesday. How did it go and what will the impact be?
Kamala Harris had the more important assignment. Her job was to seem commanding, confident, and competent in the face of Trump for 90 minutes. 29% of Americans prior to the debate said that they still didn’t have enough information about her to have an opinion. Kamala’s goal was to make it natural for millions of Americans to imagine her as commander-in-chief.
Kamala cleared the bar. And in that respect, Tuesday was a huge victory for her. She was sharp, composed and on message throughout. She got an enormous number of digs in and seemed completely unintimidated by Trump, even bemused.
Trump on the other hand wanted to come across as in control and non-contemptuous while tying Kamala Harris to a very unpopular Joe Biden. His message definitely meandered. He went down numerous blind alleys. He got more airtime but it didn’t necessarily help him.
Kamala was thoroughly prepared and it showed. Her performance reassured many. 63% of viewers in one poll deemed her the victor, not too far off from Trump’s margin over Joe Biden in the last debate in June. I think Kamala’s performance will win over a sliver of wavering swing voters in the swing states who wanted to make sure she was up to the challenge before committing to vote for her. Taylor Swift’s endorsement may be a sign for those waiting for this kind of performance.
What impact will it have on the race? It probably keeps it neck-and-neck. The polling had started to shift to Trump in the days leading up to the debate. Trump’s following is locked in and the debate will have no impact on his voters. His ‘the country is going to hell’ message works for his audience. Remember, about 75% of Americans think we’re on the wrong track. This race is going to come down to a relative handful of voters in the swing districts.
The single biggest thing that Kamala could do to drive her momentum is to start doing interviews, not just with major national press but with local outlets in the swing states and unconventional shows with major reach (e.g. “Hot Ones” with Harris would do a ton of views). Given that she now has answers to most every major topic memorized and prepared, they should get her out there. The most important asset every campaign has is candidate time, and doing press is one of the highest-leverage ways to utilize that time.
There may not even be another presidential debate. The time for risk aversion has passed. Now is the time to try and win by putting your top player on the field as much as possible. Don’t play not to lose. Play to win.
Will Kamala Harris be the next President? The odds went up after Tuesday night. She did the most important thing – she was presidential. Less than 8 weeks to go.
If you’d like to support some local candidates, check out who Forward is endorsing! One of them might represent you.
