Russia Invades Ukraine
Last night, what many had feared for weeks came to pass – Russia invaded Ukraine.
The images of plumes of smoke and fleeing citizens are jarring and heartbreaking. A peaceful Democratic country is under assault from a hostile neighbor with designs of empire and millions of people are in fear for their lives.
The senseless destruction and loss of life – essentially because of one man, Vladimir Putin – is beyond comprehension. It feels like a return to an earlier era of history, reminiscent of the mid-20th century.
My friend Ian Bremmer calls the invasion ‘a turning point in the global order’ of a GZero world – that is a world without a dominant power or an international community that can enforce norms and behaviors. Nature abhors a vacuum, and rogue actors will fill it in different ways.
I remember back in 1990 – 32 years ago – when Iraq invaded Kuwait. There was an international response that culminated in the first Gulf War, when a coalition led by the United States expelled Iraq and liberated Kuwait.
Of course, there is a massive difference between Russia and Iraq, with Russia a nuclear power in command of one of the world’s largest military forces. Ukraine is itself a sizable country with a population of over 40 million.
What will the American response be? It feels, unfortunately, like Putin is taking advantage of a weakened and divided United States to advance his expansionist vision. There is little appetite for war, just months after a failed withdrawal from Afghanistan.
And yet, it seems clear that if Putin is allowed to invade and conquer Ukraine with impunity that his ambitions won’t stop there. Every other country with similar goals will also be emboldened to further its own plans, leading to more instability and conflict.
Putin has to pay a massive price. Will sanctions be enough?
This week on the podcast with Zach, I mentioned that Putin has been interfering with and subverting American democracy for years with little accountability. I suggested that most Americans could regard these as acts of hostility and aggression. Indeed, Russia could likely take credit for some of the division within America over the past decade.
In a just world, Putin’s aggression leads to massive consequences for him and his regime. Do we live in a just world? We have been groomed to believe so, but that belief is withering before our eyes with the dying dreams of the Ukrainian people.
