RFK Endorsing Trump

RFK Jr. dropped out of the race today and endorsed Donald Trump. 

This turn of events saddens me.  As you probably know I’m someone who thinks that Donald Trump has the wrong character and makeup to be a good President.  I know multiple people who worked for him and regard him as immoral and destructive, and these were people who saw him every day. 

RFK started his campaign as a Democrat and seemed to have a similar outlook.  He switched to an Independent when he didn’t see a path in the Democratic primaries in part because there were no debates. 

RFK’s campaign raised about $50 million directly and another $50 million through outside groups.  But running as an Independent meant having to get ballot access in state after state, which is costly, difficult and fraught with legal challenges.  His polling peaked around 19% but more recently has been closer to 4 or 5%. 

RFK’s vote share decreased when Joe Biden dropped out and was replaced by Kamala Harris.  His remaining voters overlap more with Trump’s support.  If RFK had remained in the race, it probably would have helped Kamala at the margins. 

So, what does RFK’s endorsement mean?  It depends on what his voters do.  Some of them will follow him to Trump.  Some of them won’t vote. Some of them will go to other third party candidates.  A handful may even go to Kamala Harris. 

I think that RFK’s endorsement is worth about .5% to 1% of the vote for Donald Trump in the all-important swing states, maybe even more if RFK joins Trump on the trail.  Recent polling has RFK at 7% in Nevada, 6% in Wisconsin, 5% in Arizona and Michigan, 4% in Georgia and 3% in Pennsylvania.  The margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is well below those numbers in all of those states.

I’m the co-chair of a third party myself – the Forward Party - so I have a sense of what motivates voters who don’t like the two parties.  Indeed, 50% of Americans now identify as Independents, though some of them lean one way or the other. 

RFK’s voters tend to be people who feel unspoken for and left out by the current system.  Many are low propensity voters who have given up on politics as usual.  If RFK campaigns in the swing states, he could actually expand the electorate by a crucial margin – getting an extra 10,000 anti-institutional voters showing up in each swing state is a big deal. 

Why is RFK endorsing Trump?  I think much of it is that he has felt respected by Trump and his team, while the Democrats refused to even take a meeting and often sued him to keep him off ballots.  Of course, it’s difficult to trash someone as an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist and then say now “We welcome him into the fold!” 

For the record, I think this is a mistake.  If you’re serious about reaching out to Americans with different viewpoints, RFK Jr. and his followers qualify.  And his voters genuinely may comprise the difference-makers in a tight election.  If you want to win, you should at least have the conversation. 

I also think that RFK Jr. endorsing Donald Trump is the wrong decision.  Okay, the Dems have been jerks to you.  And there may be a plum role for you in the Trump administration, as they don’t particularly care about who runs various agencies.  But if you thought Donald Trump was the answer, why run in the first place? 

There are many who will dismiss this turn of events as marginal to the race.  I disagree, as in a race this tight any significant factor could matter.  RFK Jr. kindled a genuine political movement that is now backing Trump.  Trump’s odds of victory just went up and the most significant independent presidential candidate of the last twenty years just joined his team.  If that doesn’t make you pause, it should.     

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