November and 2024
Hello, I hope that your summer is going great! I’ve been getting some family time in, which has been wonderful.
Last week, a Monmouth poll came out that said that 88% of Americans feel the country is on the wrong track; that might be the highest level ever recorded. The top concerns in the poll were:
33% inflation
15% gas prices
9% economy
6% bill/groceries
5% abortion
3% guns
3% health care
3% unemployment
2% tuition costs
2% housing/rent
2% safety/crime
The top 4 all have to do with affordability, with 67% of Americans citing something to do with their pocketbook and economic circumstances.
It makes sense; the economy is on everyone’s mind. You get reminded of higher prices every day at the pump or picking up groceries. This is what forms the political climate.
These are terrible numbers for the incumbent, and Joe Biden’s approval rating has slipped to 36%. It’s one reason why most people expect a Republican sweep in November.
I expect that to play out in the House. The Democratic advantage is currently 5 seats. The average number of seats lost by the incumbent party in a mid-term is generally around 20 seats and this will probably be worse than that.
The Senate is a bit more complicated; the nature of the seats that are being contested in November favor Democrats just based on the number of Republicans who are defending seats and where the races are.
Republicans have nominated a couple candidates that are now in very tight races in Ohio (J.D. Vance vs. Tim Ryan) and Pennsylvania (Mehmet Oz vs. John Fetterman).
J.D. Vance of Hillbilly Elegy fame won the Republican Primary with only 32% of the vote. His popularity and connection are yet untested, and recent polling has Tim Ryan leading slightly despite the fact that Trump won Ohio by 8 points. I know Tim Ryan, and he’s a great candidate with a strong connection to Ohio.
Similarly, Mehmet Oz won the Republican Primary in Pennsylvania with only 31% of the vote, beating David McCormick by fewer than 1,000 votes. His opponent, John Fetterman, is a candidate with real energy among the Democratic base. Unfortunately, Fetterman was hospitalized with a stroke in May and has not campaigned publicly since, which leaves this race in a lot of uncertainty.
(Note that if both parties used Ranked Choice Voting, you would have candidates with demonstrated appeal with a majority of voters rather than only 32%. Better yet, you could do away with closed party primaries and open it up to the general public, which would really improve the process! This is on the ballot in Nevada in the Fall! But I digress.)
Georgia and Nevada are also tight. The stealth race that could determine control of the Senate is in Utah, where Independent Evan McMullin is taking on incumbent Mike Lee. The Democrats aren’t running a candidate, leaving Evan with a clear shot by uniting Democrats, Independents, and Republicans who are tired of Trump (who endorsed Lee). A recent poll had Evan within 4 points. Evan’s race is the most important race for Independents in the country and could be a model for success. For more on Evan’s race, click here. I’m backing Evan and hope you will too.
Still, if the House changes hands, what happens in the Senate will be dramatically diminished as we will have a divided government with Biden in the White House and at a minimum a Republican House of Representatives. There will be no major legislation, probably House hearings about Hunter Biden’s laptop, and Biden will be reduced to messaging and executive orders.
The attention will then turn to 2024: will Biden run for re-election? And who will he be facing?
Reporting has come out recently that Biden has been sending political operatives to the DNC and trying to manage the primary schedule. These steps strongly suggest that he is planning on running again, with a likely decision early in 2023.
Trump was leaning toward declaring in July, and has since shifted to indecision. I spoke to someone who had dinner with Trump recently and he said, “It sure seemed like he was running.” I think he chooses to run again – what else is there for him? – and makes an announcement sometime before October.
58% of Americans don’t want to see a Trump-Biden rematch – but that is likely what we are facing.
One thing about Biden – he does not respond much to naysaying and handwringing. He became a U.S. Senator at age 29 in 1972. He has run for President three times and now he has the job. He sees it as his God-given responsibility to defeat Donald Trump for all time. If he goes down, it will not be without a fight.
Things can change. Health concerns can arise. A lot of news will come out between now and November. But look again at the list of concerns driving the American people. How many of these things will shift in the next 3-and-a-half months? The pendulum of our increasingly dysfunctional two-party system will swing the way it has for years, while most of us look on and think, “There has to be something better than this.” There will be, but only if we build it.
