Larry Hogan
Hello, I hope that you’re doing great! I was in Austin at SXSW this weekend, and next weekend I’m in Phoenix for a big Forward Party event! I’m also briefly in LA for Bill Maher on Friday.
The news came out last week that Larry Hogan, former governor of Maryland, decided not to run for President as a Republican in 2024.
I was mildly surprised; I had dinner with Governor Hogan last year and he seemed like someone who was strongly considering running for President and figuring out his path. He was tired of the back-and-forth politics and wanted to improve things.
In another era, Larry Hogan would have been very appealing; he was the outgoing two-term Republican governor of Maryland, a deep blue state. He had approval ratings above 70%. He won support by governing in a practical manner and showing up to any neighborhood, including traditional Democratic constituencies.
He also was a vocal critic of Donald Trump, leaving no ambiguity about his sense of the former President and current frontrunner. “The people that try to whitewash Jan. 6 as if nothing happened are delusional. It was an assault on democracy.”
In deciding not to run, Hogan wrote about avoiding a pile-up of candidates that might improve Trump’s chances. Indeed, it’s one of the main things increasing Trump’s odds, that more candidates will split the anti-Trump vote. Moderate governors considering a run include Chris Sununu and Chris Christie joining Nikki Haley.
As one magazine put it, “Larry Hogan Won’t Run in 2024’s Imaginary GOP Moderate Lane.” One prominent Republican interested in the race said to me, “A generic Republican can defeat Joe Biden.” My response was, “Sure, but a generic Republican can’t win your party’s nomination.” The energy in the Republican Party lies in the extreme that is still dominated by Trump.
The problem that Larry Hogan faced was the reality that a presidential run by a reasonable moderate in a Republican primary was going to fall on deaf ears. Happily, Hogan recognized this. And he put the greater good above his own personal political ambitions.
He also left the door ajar to run not as a Republican, but from outside the two-party system. “But, I mean, look, if you got to an election when the nominees were Biden and Trump and 70% of America didn’t want that, you wouldn’t rule it out, right?” Will we have a choice beyond the two parties? Personally, I think that Larry Hogan’s prospects are brighter outside of the two-party system than within it. The Republican Party is no longer welcoming to reasonable no-nonsense leaders like Hogan. But outside of those quarters, Americans are looking for people like him who care more about the country than themselves.
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For my thoughts on Joe Biden and the Democrats, click here.
