Election Eve
Hello, I hope that you are gearing up for Election Day. I voted early.
What is going to happen on Tuesday? The first thing to know is that there’s a good chance we won’t know who won by the end of the night, so try to be patient.
Who is going to win? What’s fascinating is that I’ve gotten reports of confidence from both sides. Both sides think that they’re going to win. The Republicans are in “who is going to take what job” mode. And Democrats who are looking at the early votes cast are confident that they’re going to pull it out, albeit narrowly.
Their strategies are somewhat different. The Democrats are trying to get out their voters and leaning on field teams and organizers. It’s sensible given their monetary advantage.
Republicans are reaching out to low propensity voters who are Trump-aligned but haven’t participated recently – hunters are one example. Trump won in 2016 largely by getting new voters to show up. You might think that well has been drained but the Republicans are testing it out again.
“If the usual voters show up, the Democrats are confident they’re going to win. If new voters show up then Republicans think it’s going to be theirs,” is how one person put it.
I was on CNN this week trying to prod the Harris campaign. I thought that Trump was going to win for quite a while – Kamala’s main path is to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The sunbelt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina seem to be slightly tougher terrain for her and better for Trump.
I thought that passing up Joe Rogan was a missed opportunity, personally. It’s a massive audience that’s predominantly male – kind of a gold mine.
The expectation is that the Republicans will win control of the Senate – they only need to pick up one seat aside from West Virginia – and the Democrats are slightly favored to win the House. In addition to the results that most people will be watching, I’ll of course be seeing how the Forward-endorsed candidates fare as well as the ballot initiatives to open up the primaries across the country. This year I’ll be heading to Forward Party’s Election Night event in Philadelphia – it should be a phenomenal gathering.
Will it be festive or funereal? We’ll all find out soon enough. As always, do what you can.
If you’d like to donate to Forward so we can have better choices in our politics, click here. Try to keep a level head, we'll all still be here solving problems no matter how this week goes.
