Confidence Men

Who among us hasn’t mistakenly texted someone? Of course, we’re not the National Security Advisor adding a national journalist to a military thread.

What’s weird is I’ve met or know some of the people at the center of this story. A group of principals want to communicate with each other in a direct, personal and convenient way and the government doesn’t maintain a texting service that is certified for classified information. So they use Signal, a commercial app that is typically used for communications one wants to keep confidential; the messages will disappear in a set period of time, a little bit like Mission: Impossible.

The most likely explanation is that Mike Waltz wanted to add Jamieson Greer, the U.S. Trade Rep who would be naturally included in planning a military action meant to clear trade routes in the Middle East. The “JG” who got added instead was Jeffrey Goldberg, the Editor-in-Chief of the Atlantic.

On one level, I sympathize. When you are one of these people, you want to do what you do in your ordinary course of everyday life, which is text. Who would want to wait to get together in-person? And a disappearing text would be more immediate and leave a much lighter paper trail than an email, which lives forever and requires far more time to turn around with a group.

On the other hand, the lack of acceptance and accountability for a mistake like this is understandably frustrating. And if a Democratic high official had made this kind of mistake, it’s clear that Republicans would be calling that person unfit or a criminal; they might say the same thing about everyone on the thread for discussing classified matters over a commercial texting service.

The person most in danger of losing his job is Mike Waltz. He screwed up by mistakenly adding Goldberg and embarrassed the whole administration.

However, in this political environment, anytime you give in to your opposition you fuel it and give them strength. If Trump fires Waltz now, the critics will start to circle Pete Hegseth who included classified war plans in the chat and others. It’s only Month 3.

I think Waltz survives, but it’s possible he becomes the fall guy for this fiasco. One thing is clear is that this has undermined confidence in the administration’s higher-ups; they come across as sloppy and hypocritical.

The other major political story has been Bernie and AOC drawing enormous crowds on a national Fighting Oligarchy Tour. Tens of thousands of people have shown up in Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and other environments to figure out what to do in the face of Trump and Musk.

There are a few good things about this. First, it’s an expression of voter sentiment and resentment toward the current state of affairs. Second, at least someone’s doing something. Third, it could put pressure on some vulnerable Republican members of Congress to not vote for Medicaid cuts and other unpopular measures; the locations have been chosen with this in mind.

The main result though is going to be a revolt within the Democratic Party against both moderates viewed as too conciliatory to the administration – most notably Chuck Schumer who approved the continuing resolution to keep the government open – and incumbent members. You’re going to see a ton of challenges to incumbent Democratic members in primaries next year, generally from the left.

By the way, Chuck Schumer is taking a ton of heat for going along with the continuing resolution, but in my opinion he had little choice. The Trump administration would be unusually willing to go along with a closing of the government because it fits their philosophy; they would have used the shutdown to close a lot of agencies, and over a million federal employees would have been sent home and furloughed without pay. Consumer confidence and the market would have crashed, and a recession would have commenced. I commented that if you’re going to shut down the government, you also need a $10 billion GoFundMe to keep federal employees from going home empty-handed.

The above is ignored by the Democrats who now claim that they should be fighting the administration at every turn. It’s easy to say that with the lights on.

Moving the party to the left – or trying - is going to feel good for many. But it won’t be easy given that the moderate wing has its own champions; AOC is already feuding online with John Fetterman, for example. And it won’t make Democratic candidates any more competitive in places like Ohio, Florida, Texas, or Nebraska where they would have to win Senate races in order to actually have a chance to pass laws.

Indeed, 3 Democratic Senators have already said they’re not running next year. The chances of Dems winning back the Senate given the map and these retirements are essentially zero. The Senate is currently 53-47 for Republicans and that number may go up, not down. That has led observant Dems like Ezra Klein to comment that there needs to be an Independent effort to back popular candidates in parts of the country where Democrats aren’t competitive, which happens to be the majority of the nation.

I hope that sounds familiar – that is the mission Forward has undertaken. Of course, we also think creating competition for Democrats in places like California or Massachusetts would be positive. People are catching on.

The status quo is worsening. There’s an opportunity to advance our politics. Let’s do our best to move people forward.

To see what Forward is doing in your state click here. For my interview of serial entrepreneur and co-owner of the Minnesota Timberwolves Marc Lore about his new food delivery startup Wonder and his journey as an entrepreneur, click here.