Civil War in 2024?
Recently there have been a couple pieces – that are excellent – that believe that we may be in for the effective end of American democracy in 2024 through some combination of a contested or stolen election, civil unrest, and a transition to an autocracy under Trump. Robert Kagan wrote a very cogent piece in the Washington Post making this case. Barton Gellman wrote a cover story in the Atlantic this past week. And Bill Maher put out a widely circulated video.
Here is the argument – Trump has spent months undermining people’s confidence in election results. 55% of Republicans think that the election was stolen. Numerous red states have been passing laws putting the authority of certifying the vote in the hands of the state legislators as opposed to state officials. A number of state officials who certified Biden’s victory have resigned. Kevin McCarthy will likely be the House Majority leader. In 2024, Trump will either get enough votes to win, or it will be close enough where Republicans will simply certify the win, leading to protests and widespread political violence.
Is this realistic? Well, the backdrop is certainly there. Political stress is presently at Civil War levels according to Peter Turchin:
In this context, the January 6th insurrection isn’t a culmination or a one-time event but a sign of things to come.
It’s typically up to the media to announce and certify election night results. At this point, only 15% of Republicans say they have high trust in media. For Democrats it’s 69%. For Independents it’s 36%. One can easily imagine various right-leaning media outlets at least expressing ambivalence about whether a result had been reached, but given these numbers people could disbelieve regardless of the media treatment.
First, let’s stipulate that Trump is running and will likely become the Republican nominee. He’s already raised well over $100 million and has 65% approval among the primary electorate. His strongest potential opponents – Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley - will defer to him and allow him to run opposed only by folks like Chris Christie and Mike Pence. Trump will announce shortly after the midterms next year and roll the field.
Who will his Democratic opponent be? The most likely option is Joe Biden, though Joe will be 81, almost 82 on Election Day 2024. The other major choice is Kamala Harris, who is polling 6 points worse than Joe. Or they submit it to a primary and some new figure emerges.
The temptation for the Democrats will be to run Joe again. They don’t want a fractious primary that makes them seem divided. Joe will be the incumbent who defeated Trump once.
One thing that many don’t understand is that Joe’s victory in 2020 was razor-thin; 44,000 votes in 3 states – Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia – decided the race. Joe’s massive popular vote win was driven up in blue states like New York and California, and that margin is irrelevant. Recent polling had Trump up by 8 in Arizona, 10 in Wisconsin and 3 in Georgia.
Joe will also likely be saddled with a Republican Congress after 2022. The in-power party traditionally loses 10 -15 seats in off-cycle elections. Right now the Democratic majority is only 5 seats, likely to be reduced by redistricting. Note also that Democrats surprisingly lost 13 seats against Trump in 2020, in what they were hoping was a wave election. Betting markets have the Republicans retaking the majority in the House in 2022 as a 74% likelihood.
I recently spoke to a political operative who regularly conducts focus groups with Democratic voters. Voters said that they saw Joe as a ‘bridge’ candidate or President – using Joe’s own words. But when they were asked who should run for President after Joe, they were unable to say. No one really knows who or what Joe is a bridge to.
The Democrats are in a tough spot for 2024. Their President will be almost 82. People are not excited about the Vice President who was meant to embody the future of the party. No one is sure what comes next.
When someone asks me what I think will happen, I think the Dems will run Joe again, health permitting. I also think that’s a mistake. He will, simply put, seem like the physical embodiment of an aging and failing establishment. His health and age will be a nonstop talking point. Watching him campaign will be difficult.
This week on the podcast, Zach and I talk about the likely figures Democrats could call upon in 2024 to face Trump – Joe, Kamala, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar. In this day and age, I think that anyone who feels like Washington D.C. establishment will probably lose to Trump. I suggest that the best way for Democrats to defeat Trump would be to enlist someone from outside their comfort zone who feels like an Independent – someone like Mark Cuban – who would soak up some of Trump’s anti-establishment energy. Dems could also consider enlisting a moderate Republican Romney-type in a unity ticket against Trump.
These seem like dramatic moves. But they are precisely the kind of moves that Democrats should be considering if they are serious about avoiding a Trump victory in 2024. You already lost to him once in part by anointing Hillary Clinton in 2016. Business as usual by the Democrats could lead to catastrophe in 2024.
Democracy is in for a massive challenge in 2024. Will we be up for it? It starts with sizing up the seriousness of the threat and the need to approach things differently than we have in the past.
