Joe Biden is Out – What’s Next?

Joe Biden did the right thing for the country on Sunday and dropped out of the presidential race.  We should all be grateful.  It was an admirable thing to do. 
 
Joe quickly turned around and endorsed Kamala Harris as the new nominee, and the campaign has already rebranded as “Harris for President.”  Kamala announced her intent to win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention that begins on August 19th.  A small legion of Democrats immediately endorsed her.

Technically, the roughly 4,000 DNC delegates can choose whomever they want as the new nominee.  However, having been pledged to Joe Biden they are likely to adhere to his wishes.  And the past several weeks have drained many Democrats of their desire to hold a competitive mini-primary.  If Joe had dropped out 10 days earlier or so, it might have seemed more enticing. 
 
I think a mini-primary would be the best path forward for multiple reasons.  First, the nominee needs vetting.  You want to put forth the strongest possible candidate.  Second, it would get massive levels of attention for the new generation; who wouldn’t tune in to see who the Dems put forth?  Third, I think pulling the party together afterwards against Trump would be very easy and straightforward.  If your problem has been the anointment of Joe Biden, try to learn from that and avoid repeating the same mistake.

The problem is that other candidates are looking at this situation and clearing the path for Kamala.  Their calculation is this: do I run against the sitting Vice President backed by the President in a compressed time frame and get accused of trying to elbow aside the logical next person up?  Or do I sit this one out, maybe get into the Veepstakes for Kamala and bide my time until 2028?  Most are quickly choosing the latter. 
 
Barack Obama notably recommended a more robust and open process.  But his voice has been outweighed by others who are trying to push for quickly coalescing around Kamala.  Look for a constant stream of Kamala endorsements from delegates and superdelegates in the coming days, making a challenge to her all-the-more daunting. 
 
Here’s the fundamental problem:  I don’t believe Kamala Harris is the strongest candidate against Donald Trump.
 
Kamala has consistently polled as quite unpopular and has some of the disadvantages of incumbency – she can still be blamed for whatever people haven’t liked about the last several years.  Her previous presidential campaign in 2019 underperformed. 
 
When I’ve been asked over the past number of weeks who I thought might be the strongest candidates, I suggested a Gretchen Whitmer – Josh Shapiro ticket that would likely net the Democrats both Michigan and Pennsylvania.  I also think that Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Wes Moore and others would perform quite well.  You could put another half-dozen or so names in here and I wouldn’t disagree, nor would polling.  My instinct has been that the country wants someone new and would vote accordingly. 
 
Kamala Harris at 59 is a vastly better bet than Joe Biden at 81.  I’m glad it’s not Joe.  But if you’re going to go through the trouble of removing your nominee, you should go all the way and try to give yourself the best possible chance of victory.  Isn’t that the point?   
 
Forward is endorsing candidates around the country – check them out here!  Let’s build the Party of the Future that we clearly need.