A War of Our Own
“I didn’t think Trump would actually implement tariffs; I thought it was a negotiating tactic.”
I’ve seen this sentiment aired a hundred times both publicly and privately. It has been incredibly frustrating watching Trump launch a trade war. His tariffs are going to be vastly destructive and will raise prices for consumers and manufacturers alike. Agricultural states and the Midwest are going to be hit particularly hard, but every American will feel the pinch when they head to the store. The result has already started to weigh on global stock markets as less trade and more uncertainty make it harder to invest in growth. Trump’s vacillating on what the tariffs cover doesn’t help; who could plan investments not knowing if it’s going to change week to week?
Also, Wednesday was the announcement that US employers announced plans to cut 172,000 jobs in February, the highest number since July 2020 and the 12th highest in 32 years. This included 62,000 federal employees, a number which will obviously increase. Trump’s plans to cut 80,000 workers from the VA alone recently leaked.
One thing that has been supporting the stock market for months is “the AI trade.” Of course, AI itself is a job suppressor; I know a dozen executives who have either cut jobs or didn’t hire workers directly because of AI.
One pattern that recurs is that employers tend not to be in the practice of shedding workers until a recession hits. Then, they look around and become ruthless on headcount, in part because the economic environment gives them cover to do so. Imagine companies in job-cutting mode fueled by AI? That’s fast approaching.
Indeed, February’s layoff numbers as well as a very weak Fed survey indicate that we may be teetering on the edge of a recession right now. The twin spectre of a trade war and widespread federal layoffs that will leave tens of thousands of households in professional and financial limbo are weakening confidence. The NIH and USAID cuts have already had that kind of impact on thousands of researchers and non-profit workers.
Trump seems more than ready to inflict economic pain on the country he leads. It’s bizarre.
This self-inflicted trade war is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen. Do I think Trump is leading us into a recession through his tariffs, posturing and erratic leadership? Yes. Yes I do. And I think this one will feel different compared to any of the recent ones we have experienced.
This week on the podcast I sit down with our friend John Avlon to talk policy. Also, a state senator in Utah joined Forward this week, our 47th elected official to affiliate! An article in the Bulwark this week pointed out that a new party could compete in areas that are currently uncompetitive; it’s exactly what the country needs. New people are joining Forward all the time – check out what we are doing in your state.
