99 Days
Hello, hope that your summer is going well.
It’s been 16 days since Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, 14 days since JD Vance was named the Republican running mate and 8 days since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Harris’s campaign has raised $200 million in that time, a whopping amount that has lifted her to financial parity and beyond. That’s three major events in essentially the last two weeks, with some of them already feeling like a lifetime ago.
Kamala Harris will name a VP any day now leading up to the Democratic National Convention on August 19th – 22nd. At that point, there will be 75 days – about 11 weeks – until Election Day on November 5th, with many states allowing votes to be cast before then. Trump recently cast doubt on whether he will make the next Presidential Debate scheduled for September 10th against Kamala Harris, saying he wanted to make sure she was actually the nominee. Many debates don’t really impact a race, but this one definitely could. Heck, the last one caused a nominee change.
Some are proposing that Trump might swap JD Vance out as the press is enjoying airing out some of Vance’s more impolitic past statements. I doubt Vance gets swapped out but it would be a way to get a press cycle and select someone who might actually put more voters at ease.
It’s going to be an action-packed 3 months.
Data is coming in on how Kamala Harris polls vs. Trump – keep in mind that she’s only been at it for a week and it takes 7-10 days to get decent polling in most cases. Her approval rating is already sharply higher than it was a couple months ago by virtue of becoming the nominee. However, in some polls so is Trump’s; perhaps because of surviving an assassination attempt, Trump is closer to 50% approval in some polls than he has been in years.
National polling has Harris and Trump within a few points of each other with Harris rising – but that’s not indicative of who’s going to win the Electoral College. The main question is what’s happening in the six swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – and whether Kamala causes any other states – primarily North Carolina – to become contestable. Joe Biden’s stronghold was in the Midwestern ‘blue wall.’ He was the guy from Scranton, after all.
Can Kamala make Arizona, Nevada and/or Georgia close enough to win? And does she retain enough strength in the Midwest to close the deal in those states? It’s one reason why her choice of running mate matters, as the three reported finalists – Shapiro, Kelly and Cooper hail from PA, AZ and NC.
Given the rate of fundraising and the compressed time frame, the Harris campaign should already be ploughing its time and energy into the swing states. The money will continue to come. Figure out who can move the needle in the states that matter – including the candidate – and go door-to-door.
I’m voting for Kamala and I hope she wins. I think Trump’s a deeply flawed human who shouldn’t occupy the most powerful office in the land. Campaigns tend to be won by whichever candidate peaks at the right time. It’s certainly easy to imagine that Trump peaked too soon, while Kamala’s campaign is only getting started.
If you’re looking for local candidates to support, check out the Forward-endorsed candidates here. We are having a reunion picnic in LA on Sunday – join us if you are in town!
