The Debate

The presidential debate took place on Tuesday.  How did it go and what will the impact be? 

Kamala Harris had the more important assignment.  Her job was to seem commanding, confident, and competent in the face of Trump for 90 minutes.  29% of Americans prior to the debate said that they still didn’t have enough information about her to have an opinion.  Kamala’s goal was to make it natural for millions of Americans to imagine her as commander-in-chief.

Kamala cleared the bar.  And in that respect, Tuesday was a huge victory for her.  She was sharp, composed and on message throughout.  She got an enormous number of digs in and seemed completely unintimidated by Trump, even bemused.

Trump on the other hand wanted to come across as in control and non-contemptuous while tying Kamala Harris to a very unpopular Joe Biden.  His message definitely meandered.  He went down numerous blind alleys.  He got more airtime but it didn’t necessarily help him. 

Kamala was thoroughly prepared and it showed.  Her performance reassured many.  63% of viewers in one poll deemed her the victor, not too far off from Trump’s margin over Joe Biden in the last debate in June.  I think Kamala’s performance will win over a sliver of wavering swing voters in the swing states who wanted to make sure she was up to the challenge before committing to vote for her.  Taylor Swift’s endorsement may be a sign for those waiting for this kind of performance. 

What impact will it have on the race?  It probably keeps it neck-and-neck.  The polling had started to shift to Trump in the days leading up to the debate.  Trump’s following is locked in and the debate will have no impact on his voters.  His ‘the country is going to hell’ message works for his audience.  Remember, about 75% of Americans think we’re on the wrong track.  This race is going to come down to a relative handful of voters in the swing districts. 

The single biggest thing that Kamala could do to drive her momentum is to start doing interviews, not just with major national press but with local outlets in the swing states and unconventional shows with major reach (e.g. “Hot Ones” with Harris would do a ton of views).  Given that she now has answers to most every major topic memorized and prepared, they should get her out there.  The most important asset every campaign has is candidate time, and doing press is one of the highest-leverage ways to utilize that time. 

There may not even be another presidential debate.  The time for risk aversion has passed.  Now is the time to try and win by putting your top player on the field as much as possible.  Don’t play not to lose.  Play to win. 

Will Kamala Harris be the next President?  The odds went up after Tuesday night.  She did the most important thing – she was presidential.  Less than 8 weeks to go. 

If you’d like to support some local candidates, check out who Forward is endorsing!  One of them might represent you.  

I Debated Kamala Harris 5 Times in 2020. Here is What I Would Tell Her Team

I wrote another op-ed for Newsweek - and here it is. Hope you enjoy it.

I Debated Kamala Harris 5 Times in 2020. Here is What I Would Tell Her Team

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump debate for the first time on September 10. It is the highest-stakes event to date for both candidates. In a race this close, it's not an exaggeration to say that the outcome in November could rest on how this 90-minute debate goes. Traditionally the viewership is the highest for the first debate between opponents as well, so this is the big one.

I debated Harris five times during the primary season of 2020, literally standing next to her several of those evenings. To say that I debated her is a little bit misleading though — she and I never got into a direct argument as it never made sense for either of us to be attacking the other. We had a good, friendly relationship on the campaign trail, and Harris was generally focused on the candidates above her, most notably Joe Biden in the first debate. I was focused on trying to get my message out and keep the campaign going; I tended to get less airtime than other candidates because I got fewer questions and generally played nice.

So, what would I say about Harris as a debater? She gets high marks for poise and being able to recall and deliver messages. She prefers to use notes, which makes sense given her legal background — she used the time before the moderators got started to reproduce notes on the notepaper we were given. (Note: I did the exact same thing.) She certainly has the stamina for a 90-minute debate. She'll expect hostility from Trump, and I expect her to be steady and strong. She was taken by surprise by Tulsi Gabbard's pointed and persistent attacks four years ago but there will be no surprise here. Outside of the primaries, she debated former Vice President Mike Pence four years ago, and I thought that she was clear and composed throughout.

Trump's debate style, on the other hand, is based on appearance and attacks — he'll stand there and run down his opponent. He's pugnacious, spontaneous and not overly substantive; some of what he says won't necessarily make sense or be true. He's a performer. The main way to prepare to face him is to load up with substance to be able to confidently call out his record and his misrepresentations and to match his energy. It's particularly important to come in strong at the beginning when viewership is highest, and the tone is set. I would literally be playing pump-up music and have Harris prepare for a prizefight. I'd also give her a bit of time away from the trail to make sure that her energy is high.

A lot of debate prep is memorizing 90-second responses to questions on different subject areas: foreign policy, economy, immigration, health care, education, etc. Harris' team has been preparing her for the debate for weeks, including mock debates with an experienced Trump stand-in. I'm sure she's had talking points accompanying her on the campaign trail to study and that recalling them won't be an issue. The truth is that when you're campaigning, you're often on a bus or a plane and either calling people or studying notes. She's had plenty of opportunity to get the substance down.

That said, I was a little bit surprised that some of these talking points weren't more clearly evident in her recent CNN interview. You can often pick up on debate prep in interviews, because if someone has been memorizing paragraphs in response to various cues they will naturally utilize them when asked any related question.

Harris will benefit from the visual — she is 19 years younger than Trump and looks like it. She is almost always clearer and more coherent. For her, the main issue is to come across as presidential and commanding for 90 minutes. If she does this, she'll have a good night.

Trump, on the other hand, could stand to demonstrate some self-control and that he's still sharp. President Joe Biden's performance in June was so abysmal that Trump benefited from the contrast. He won't have that advantage against Harris.

Which candidate has more to gain or lose? It's clearly Harris. Trump is a known quantity, while for many Americans Harris is still new and introducing herself. Can people see her as president? Are the memes of her delivering faulty responses simply internet fodder that she can dismiss with a strong performance? If she is resolute, confident and unflappable for 90 minutes against Trump she'll be in a much stronger position.

Some debates don't change a race that much; viewers simply think that the candidate they prefer did great. This race remains neck-and-neck, and the debate is the most important night for both campaigns. The last debate knocked a candidate out. Will history be made on Tuesday night?

If I were advising Harris' team, the main thing I would emphasize is to give her the chance to do whatever she finds most rejuvenating the day before and the day of the debate to make sure she is feeling good, energized, and ready to go. Make it so she's happy to be there to take it to Trump.

Campaigns have a tendency to overwork candidates — Biden showed up to the first debate under the weather and overprepared, and was reduced to grasping for factoids that were clearly eluding him.

I had a bad night my first debate, so my team switched gears from having me do interviews the day before to me shooting hoops with friends. My performance went up, so we stuck with that as a new routine for debate day for the next five debates. It made me happier to be on the stage because I would have had a good, invigorating day the day before.

Harris struck me as a bit worn down during her CNN interview. And she has never met Trump face-to-face, so it will feel awkward and uncomfortable. I have the sense that her team is treating everything as a sprint given the compressed time frame and her relative youth. That would be a mistake. Harris will have to bring a much higher level of energy next Tuesday than she did for the joint interview with her vice-presidential pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. After all, Joe Biden didn't get a second debate this season. Harris and her team should approach this as if it's the only debate of the year, because it might as well be.

Want to support independent candidates who are making a positive impact?  Check out the Forward Party. We are working on local races around the country. 

The Mechanic

Hello, I hope that your summer has ended on a high!  Labor Day means back to school. 

The next 64 days are going to be busy as Election Day is just about two months away.  The top of the ticket gets all of the attention but there are many other races under the radar that could be pivotal. 

What would you say if I told you that an Independent is running for Senate against an Incumbent in Nebraska and is now virtually tied?  That is the case for Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran, mechanic and labor leader who is running against Deb Fischer, a Republican incumbent who is not terribly popular.  “People in Nebraska are tired of politics as usual.  There’s no love lost for our current leaders.  Anytime I talk to someone in person they get excited as soon as they hear about me and the campaign.  That’s why I spend every day driving around the state talking to voters.  We are growing every day.  If we get the resources to get the message out, we are going to win.” 

I’ve met with Dan and he’s the real deal; a fed-up 49-year-old military veteran who wants to change things for the better.  Imagine a real-life mechanic as a U.S. Senator.  “Every day, I roll up my sleeves to fix something.  No institution in America needs fixing more than the United States Senate.”  It’s a very appealing message. 

Can Dan win?  His opponent, Deb Fischer, is 73 years old, not terribly popular and hasn’t been meaningfully opposed in 12 years.  There is no Democrat in the race.  The usual playbook in this situation is to try and paint the Independent as the minority party.  But Dan doesn’t feel like a conventional Democrat given his military background and man-of-the-people profile.

Dan’s race reminds me of Evan McMullin’s race in Utah two years ago.  If you recall, Evan was an Independent military veteran running against the incumbent Mike Lee.  The Democrats wisely decided not to run a candidate because in Utah the Democrat is something of a sacrificial lamb. 

Evan got 43% of the vote in 2022, losing to Mike Lee who got 53%.  Still, that 10 point margin was 10 percent closer than the margin Trump beat Biden by in Utah.  That’s a big difference.  Running an Independent is the recipe for introducing competition where there seems to be none possible. 

It’s a similar situation in Nebraska, a state Trump won by 19 points.  It turns out that Utah and Nebraska are typical in that 36 of the 50 states are essentially dominated by one party.  Hence, the general elections in those states tend to be formalities. 

That makes for bad incentives and unmotivated leadership.  Why rock the boat if you’re going to coast to re-election? 

In Nebraska, the Democrats are also wisely stepping aside and ceding the field to Dan.

Will the outcome be different this time?  Every race is different, and at some point the Independent candidate will break through.  Dan happens to be pro-choice, which is going to help in November. 

If Dan were to win it would be a political earthquake.  I’ve donated to Dan’s campaign and hope that you’ll consider doing so as well. 

He’s right that politics as usual won’t cure what ails us. An independent in Nebraska becoming a U.S. Senator would help.  Let's help make it happen.  

Want to support candidates like Dan?  Check out the Forward Party. We are working on local races around the country. 

An Honest DNC Speech

Newsweek asked me to write another Op-Ed after the DNC - and here it is. Hope you enjoy it.

I Left the Democratic Party to Start a Third Party. I'm Still Voting for Kamala and You Should Too

I spoke at the DNC four years ago (it was virtual because of COVID so I beamed my remarks from a studio in Manhattan). Two years later, I left the Democratic Party; I'd come to believe that the two-party system could not meaningfully address the problems of our time. To fix the problem, I co-founded the Forward party, a much needed third American political party, so I was obviously not invited to speak in Chicago. But if I had been invited to give a DNC speech, it would have started like this: My name is Andrew Yang, and I'm here to make the case that you should vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the fall.

Why? Those of you attending the DNC probably already have a sense of why. 57 percent of Democrats think the country is on the right track, and yet, you are in the minority. Among Independents—about half of voters—only 17 percent agree, and for Republicans, it's a tiny 7.7 percent. Only 18 percent of Americans total are satisfied with how things are going in the United States according to Gallup.

That's the real struggle: Most Americans don't think things are going well. They feel anxious about their family's future. Time does not feel like it's on their side, so they naturally want a change at the top. This is particularly true for Americans who don't have a college degree—and it's they who will decide who the next president is.

This election will not be determined by you and me; it will be determined by the welder in Wisconsin, the waitress in Michigan, the blackjack dealer in Nevada. These are folks who voted for Obama, then Trump, then Biden, and are now unhappy but unsure what to do next. They will be among the 50,000 to 100,000 independent voters in the swing states who choose the next President.

So the question is, what do these voters or potential voters want to see in November?

They want their lives to be a little bit easier. They want some breathing room—not sticker shock—when they head to the grocery store to pick up food for their families. They want to feel like maybe tomorrow will be better than today. But they've been burnt. They are skeptical that their votes will matter. Many of them naturally mistrust both the government and Democrats. They dislike anyone who seems to be telling them what to do, how to think, or how to feel.

I know this firsthand. When I ran for President four years ago, 42 percent of my supporters were not Democrats. One of them was asked by a Fox News anchor, "Why Yang?"

"He does not seem to be judging me," she said.

That's how Harris and Walz can begin the process of wooing these voters: Start with no judgment. Let's not pretend or tell voters how they should feel. They know their circumstances best.

As for the voters, here's my argument for why they should choose Kamala Harris over Donald Trump:

First, if you think things are getting worse not better in your life and in your families' lives, you're probably right. The American way of life has been deteriorating in terms of the affordability of housing, health care, a college education, and childcare for a generation or more. And both parties share responsibility for that.

So let's stipulate that things are indeed getting worse. What are you going to do? It's tempting to side with Donald Trump, because he seems like a change from the status quo, and you might remember the economy of four years ago fondly. The problem is, he's the wrong guy.

Trump is out for himself. He's a bad leader. He's not going to improve your family's circumstances. The vast majority of the people who worked for him four years ago are against him today. Think of the worst boss you've ever had, the person who no one wanted to work for, who churned through employees left and right. That's Donald Trump. Now he's 78, with his best days behind him, and he's more impulsive than ever. For any good idea he has, he'll have five bad ones, and some of them will actually do harm.

Not sold on Kamala Harris? That's all right. You don't have to be. It's not about her; it's about you and your family. I believe under a Harris administration, the federal government will do a few things that will actually lighten your load.

Remember in 2021 when you were getting some extra money for your kids? That will come back. The Democrats also seem ready to tackle medical debt, which they should have done in the first place, and people will have more freedom to make their own medical decisions. More of the drugs you use will become a little bit more affordable, and you might get more paid time off from work if you have a child. And in some parts of the country, there may be a construction project or highway getting built.

Some of what Kamala Harris and the Democrats are talking about won't happen, of course. But I believe a few of the costs that are pinning you down and choking you will lighten and you will breathe a tiny bit easier if Harris wins.

Will it reverse the decay of the past number of decades? No it won't. Will some of the people involved be irritating and sanctimonious? Yes. Will you occasionally roll your eyes at the condescension and posturing? Sure. Will it remedy the bureaucracy and dysfunction that make us fear for the future? No.

But is it the right choice in this election? Yes, it is.

Trump is the guy who will make you feel better for a minute but lead you to regret it later. He's like junk food: You don't want that for four years every day. He's driven by grievance. He has the wrong character and motivation.

Supporting Kamala will be, in my view, the better vote for your family's prospects for a brighter, or a slightly less forbidding future. Kamala Harris is the vote to live to fight another day. There's always tomorrow. Let's keep the country intact and capable of improvement. That's the way I'll be voting and I hope you do too.

Want to create an alternative to the two parties one local election at a time?  Check out Forward Party and consider making a donation today – we have candidates at every level all across the country!

RFK Endorsing Trump

RFK Jr. dropped out of the race today and endorsed Donald Trump. 

This turn of events saddens me.  As you probably know I’m someone who thinks that Donald Trump has the wrong character and makeup to be a good President.  I know multiple people who worked for him and regard him as immoral and destructive, and these were people who saw him every day. 

RFK started his campaign as a Democrat and seemed to have a similar outlook.  He switched to an Independent when he didn’t see a path in the Democratic primaries in part because there were no debates. 

RFK’s campaign raised about $50 million directly and another $50 million through outside groups.  But running as an Independent meant having to get ballot access in state after state, which is costly, difficult and fraught with legal challenges.  His polling peaked around 19% but more recently has been closer to 4 or 5%. 

RFK’s vote share decreased when Joe Biden dropped out and was replaced by Kamala Harris.  His remaining voters overlap more with Trump’s support.  If RFK had remained in the race, it probably would have helped Kamala at the margins. 

So, what does RFK’s endorsement mean?  It depends on what his voters do.  Some of them will follow him to Trump.  Some of them won’t vote. Some of them will go to other third party candidates.  A handful may even go to Kamala Harris. 

I think that RFK’s endorsement is worth about .5% to 1% of the vote for Donald Trump in the all-important swing states, maybe even more if RFK joins Trump on the trail.  Recent polling has RFK at 7% in Nevada, 6% in Wisconsin, 5% in Arizona and Michigan, 4% in Georgia and 3% in Pennsylvania.  The margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is well below those numbers in all of those states.

I’m the co-chair of a third party myself – the Forward Party - so I have a sense of what motivates voters who don’t like the two parties.  Indeed, 50% of Americans now identify as Independents, though some of them lean one way or the other. 

RFK’s voters tend to be people who feel unspoken for and left out by the current system.  Many are low propensity voters who have given up on politics as usual.  If RFK campaigns in the swing states, he could actually expand the electorate by a crucial margin – getting an extra 10,000 anti-institutional voters showing up in each swing state is a big deal. 

Why is RFK endorsing Trump?  I think much of it is that he has felt respected by Trump and his team, while the Democrats refused to even take a meeting and often sued him to keep him off ballots.  Of course, it’s difficult to trash someone as an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist and then say now “We welcome him into the fold!” 

For the record, I think this is a mistake.  If you’re serious about reaching out to Americans with different viewpoints, RFK Jr. and his followers qualify.  And his voters genuinely may comprise the difference-makers in a tight election.  If you want to win, you should at least have the conversation. 

I also think that RFK Jr. endorsing Donald Trump is the wrong decision.  Okay, the Dems have been jerks to you.  And there may be a plum role for you in the Trump administration, as they don’t particularly care about who runs various agencies.  But if you thought Donald Trump was the answer, why run in the first place? 

There are many who will dismiss this turn of events as marginal to the race.  I disagree, as in a race this tight any significant factor could matter.  RFK Jr. kindled a genuine political movement that is now backing Trump.  Trump’s odds of victory just went up and the most significant independent presidential candidate of the last twenty years just joined his team.  If that doesn’t make you pause, it should.     

Want to create an alternative to the two parties one local election at a time?  Check out Forward Party and consider making a donation today – we have candidates at every level all across the country! 

It’s DNC Week

Hello, I hope that your summer is ending on a high note. 

The DNC takes place this week in Chicago.  I expect the Dems to run a high-quality event, and the energy will be high. 

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have been enjoying a honeymoon period despite most voters having little sense of either of their bios or backgrounds.  Fleshing out who the candidates are will be a plus, as will the parade of Democratic dignitaries, from Joe Biden, the Obamas and the Clintons to up-and-comers like Wes Moore, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro.  

The Democrats have a raft of appealing figures and a rich heritage to draw on – note that at the Republican Convention there was no Bush or Romney hearkening back to fondly-remembered past administrations.  It was really the Trump show. 

4 years ago I spoke at the DNC, but it was a virtual event due to COVID and I beamed my remarks from a studio in Manhattan.  They approved my speech down to the word and timed it down to the second.  There were multiple reviewers.  Every speaking slot is highly in-demand and the planners want to dole them out only to the few who are integral to the message and story they want to put forward.  People imagine a raucous affair, but in contemporary politics it’s a tightly scripted and choreographed made-for-TV special.  Or at least that’s what the goal is, as in a live arena more spontaneity will emerge.

The main variable will be whether protestors make it into the broadcast – when I attended a Joe Biden speech in South Carolina earlier this year there were multiple protestors during his address.  Thousands of protestors are expected outside the Chicago convention hall at a site a half-mile away and 30 delegates are ‘uncommitted’ and thus natural protestors. One would think that it would be tough in this context to get tons more people inside the hall given heightened scrutiny of party delegates and attendees. But there will definitely be some protestors in the building. In South Carolina, pro-Biden chants quickly rose to up to drown out any protestors, and countermeasures will be robust. 

The second variable is whether the Dems decide to invite and include moderate Republicans and Independents in the primetime speaking slots.  In past conventions they included figures like Mike Bloomberg and John Kasich.  This year, the possibilities include folks like Mark Cuban, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger or Geoff Duncan, the former Lt. Gov. of Georgia who has endorsed Kamala Harris.  It would serve to broaden the anti-Trump coalition and I hope they do this, but they might not as the time slots are very coveted. 

The third thing to keep an eye out for is if someone emerges and creates buzz for the future with a particularly outstanding speech the way that Barack Obama did in 2004.  It hasn’t really happened since, but a half-dozen people will certainly try to make the most of the platform. 

The Democrats will put on a good show and the Harris-Walz ticket will, I expect, get a polling bump out of it.  The expectation is that afterwards the race will tighten and remain close throughout, with the next major catalyst on the schedule being the first presidential debate on September 10th.  The Harris campaign is also putting more policy meat on the bone out there and weighing taking unscripted interviews. 

Will the race follow its expected course?  In many ways, the goal of the DNC is to minimize any surprises.  But in this cycle, surprises may be par for the course.     

If you're not pumped about your choices, Forward is endorsing dozens of candidates around the country – check them out here and support them as one of them could represent you! Last week, I was asked to write an Op-Ed for Newsweek about the Democrats and democracy – you can read it here!

Defending Democracy

I was asked to write an Op-Ed for Newsweek about the Democrats and democracy.  Here's what I wrote — hope you enjoy it.

I Hope Harris Wins. But the Democrats Need to Answer for Their Failures to Protect Democracy

Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz have been enjoying a honeymoon period in the presidential race that I expect will last at least through the convention. Their rise has caught former President Trump and GOP VP Nominee JD Vance flatfooted.

I myself endorsed Kamala Harris shortly after Joe Biden stepped aside. I am someone who finds Donald Trump to have the wrong character and makeup to be President. I ran for the office four years ago in part to try and keep him from returning.

And yet Donald Trump may win in November. After all, he won in 2016 and was about 43,000 swing voters away from winning again in 2020.

For months I have been dreading Trump's return to power. Why? The Democratic nominee was Joe Biden, who I thought would obviously lose to Trump, handing him back the keys without a fight.

It's easily forgotten, but if not for the early debate on June 27th, Joe Biden would be the nominee right now, and we would all be subject to endless stories about how he's still got it or is as sharp as a tack, despite overwhelming evidence of his decline. If Trump had simply delayed the first debate until after the conventions, when they customarily take place, he would be on the fast track to the presidency today.

Democrats are fond of saying "Democracy is on the line" when they talk about Donald Trump. Trump denied he lost the 2020 election and hoped to overturn it via an angry mob. We can easily imagine him refusing to accept defeat in November. And yet Democrats were inches away from handing him back the reins of power because of an unwillingness to challenge Joe Biden, who was clearly too old and faltering to run for re-election.

I saw Joe Biden dozens of times on the trail four years ago. I was on stage with him for seven primary debates. Back then, he was aging but vital. I saw him earlier this year in South Carolina, and his decline was evident. He hardly seemed like the same person; the last four years have taken a significant toll, as they might for anyone in his early eighties with such a stressful, demanding role.

One sitting Democrat made the case that Joe Biden was too old and infirm in the primaries—Congressman Dean Phillips. Dean's reward? Ostracization by his own party. A primary challenger for his congressional seat backed by an establishment eager to punish him. A premature end to his political career. Dean Phillips demonstrated more principle, courage and heart than all of the putative leaders in his party who were at the time falling over themselves to bolster Joe and brand Dean an outcast, only for Dean's case to be proven right less than six months later.

If Democrats are serious about defending democracy, there are a number of things that they should commit to.

First, they should pledge to hold robust primaries no matter what. They did not this cycle, canceling state primaries without a single vote being cast and refusing to hold debates, with the logic being that Joe was an incumbent and incumbents shouldn't have challengers. That is asinine. If an incumbent can't easily dispatch challengers from within their own party, they are probably not going to fare well in November. We saw that very clearly this year. Imagine if Joe's decline had been evident back in January; there could have been a genuine process that would have introduced the nation to the next generation of leadership.

Second, they should stop boosting election deniers. The Democratic Party has been in the habit of spending millions boosting extreme candidates like Doug Mastriano and Joe Gibbs in Republican primaries so that they have easier opponents in the general election. This may seem like smart politics, but it is cynical and accelerates the general loss of faith and confidence in our institutions.

Third, they should stop fighting measures like open primaries and ranked choice voting that promise to make the system more dynamic. Open primaries in particular simply enable more voters to vote. Democrats spend millions of dollars against these measures every year across the country including for this November. Ranked choice voting gives people the chance to vote their true preferences.

Democracy does not mean, "you must vote for us." Democracy means listening to the people and giving them real voice and choice.

One proven means of combating polarization is local news. Over 3,000 local newspapers have gone out of business the past two decades, to be replaced by social media feeds and cable news. Democrats should be supporting the Community News and Small Business Support Act that provides a tax credit for local businesses and publications. If you read local news you're more likely to vote in local elections.

51 percent of Americans now self-categorize as Independents, according to Gallup, and an even higher proportion of young people don't subscribe to either party. There is a bill in Congress called the Fair Representation Act. It would shift congressional districts, which currently have one representative, to new, bigger districts that would have multiple representatives from different parties. Some would be neither Democrats nor Republicans. This would give rise to new voices in our country and make us more resilient to authoritarianism because there would be more seats at the table that are not beholden to the leadership of one party or the other.

You know what would attract droves of Independent voters? Term limits for members of Congress. 75 percent of Americans are for them as we sense that our leaders are more and more divorced from the day-to-day of their constituents. Banning stock trading for members falls into the same category.

If Kamala Harris and the Democrats are triumphant in November, there will likely be much celebration and self-congratulation. I certainly hope the Harris-Walz ticket wins. But will they actually replenish democracy? Or will they say, "See, we were right all along!"

If history is any indication, they'll fail to do much while in power to truly modernize our democracy. Getting term limits, multi-member districts, and ranked-choice voting ratified into law have failed again and again, even with Democrats in power.

If Democrats start standing up for democracy in action instead of rhetoric, the country will be far better off. If not, new characters will continue to push for change, and Democrats will find themselves increasingly at odds with the people they claim to represent.

The Human-Centered Economy

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great.  My kids don’t start school until Labor Day so we are milking the summer for all it can give.   

4 years ago I ran for President arguing for Universal Basic Income based on the idea that AI was coming and was going to do away with many American jobs. 

Today, AI is here and gathering steam, and is already displacing workers in different fields.  One joke going around is, “Why can’t AI do my dishes?”  Instead it’s consuming many cognitive tasks, from coding to writing to art and design to legal work.  Friends who are starting companies marvel at how they are hiring fewer people for roles that now get handled by software.  At the same time, friends who have started automation companies are seeing continuing growth and adoption. 

There are almost 2 million call center workers in the United States.  I believe most will eventually be replaced by AI.  That’s an obvious application, but many will be affected in more inobvious ways.  Perhaps relatedly, I’ve had multiple friends lose their jobs lately in finance, tech and media.  Most of these people were my age – in their 40s – and were on the pricier side.  Organizations will always look to do more with less, and some are presently pruning costs.   

The question is, what lies ahead for human workers? 

Here’s the core idea:  If the only measurements are cost and efficiency, more and more of us are going to lose to the machines.  AI will get smarter and faster in ways that we cannot. 

I think people are waking up to this.  4 years ago, people would sometimes talk about reskilling and being lifelong learners as if we can all scramble above the water line if only we’re a little more nimble.  Now, there’s a growing recognition that this is going to be unrealistic. 

I continue to hold that addressing poverty is the most direct and concrete way we can help people.  Humanity Forward is lobbying Congress for a revival of the enhanced child tax credit.  There is a ton of needless suffering and deprivation in this country and it is fueling our politics in dangerous ways. 

I would get asked this on the campaign trail several years ago, and I would sometimes describe how my wife Evelyn was at home with our children, one of whom is on the autism spectrum.  How much was her time and work valued at in our current marketplace?  The answer is “zero” even though we all know that her work might be some of the most important and valuable that a person can do. 

Imagine an economy where education and nurturing has its own value, along with arts and creativity and health and wellness.  I joke sometimes that we should probably be getting paid to go to the gym, because it’s great for society and saves us all money if we stay healthy. 

A multipolar economy is our way out of the grinding wheels of the machine – that we build an economy around human values and helping people live fruitful lives.  Our time is the most important resource we have to offer, independent of what the cost-based marketplace currently assigns us.  There can be more ways to both measure value and value our time. 

Last week on Freakonomics Radio I was asked what a human-centered economy could look like in practice.  I responded, “Let’s say I tutor your child at math.  That’s what I’m good at.  I get a 2-hour time credit for my work.  I then give it to someone else in return for their help cleaning my garage.  I’m not great at that.  That person then gives the time credit to someone else in return for a homecooked meal, which is also something I’m not good at.  Everyone has something that they can contribute.  If we start valuing and trading people’s time in new ways, we could enable a different sort of economy that works for many more of us.” 

This is not a new idea; Stephen Dubner of Freakonomics became interested in Timebanking when he read a book by Edgar Cahn called “No More Throw-away People.”  Edgar Cahn was Bobby Kennedy’s speechwriter in the 1960s, a time when the war on poverty was front and center.  Technology could enable time banking or trading in powerful new ways.  It’s also making the development of a human-centered economy all the more important. 

If we’re going to lose a race to the machines, perhaps we should change the racetrack and measurements to something we can win and be happy about.  How do we build an economy that works for people?  By seeing to it that there are ways to create meaning, purpose and value for as many as possible. 

My extended interview appears this week on the podcast and you can check out the Freakonomics interview here. If you’re interested in getting involved, send us an email to time@humanityforwardfoundation.org. 

I know that this may seem utopian to some of you reading this – and I don’t think that’s a bad thing.  The fact is that we’re going to veer toward either dystopia or utopia over time, and I’d vastly prefer the latter.  Which are we trending towards right now?  Someone’s got to paint the picture of abundance and possibility – it might as well be us. 

99 Days

Hello, hope that your summer is going well. 

It’s been 16 days since Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, 14 days since JD Vance was named the Republican running mate and 8 days since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.  Harris’s campaign has raised $200 million in that time, a whopping amount that has lifted her to financial parity and beyond.  That’s three major events in essentially the last two weeks, with some of them already feeling like a lifetime ago.    

Kamala Harris will name a VP any day now leading up to the Democratic National Convention on August 19th – 22nd.  At that point, there will be 75 days – about 11 weeks – until Election Day on November 5th, with many states allowing votes to be cast before then.  Trump recently cast doubt on whether he will make the next Presidential Debate scheduled for September 10th against Kamala Harris, saying he wanted to make sure she was actually the nominee.  Many debates don’t really impact a race, but this one definitely could.  Heck, the last one caused a nominee change. 

Some are proposing that Trump might swap JD Vance out as the press is enjoying airing out some of Vance’s more impolitic past statements.  I doubt Vance gets swapped out but it would be a way to get a press cycle and select someone who might actually put more voters at ease. 

It’s going to be an action-packed 3 months. 

Data is coming in on how Kamala Harris polls vs. Trump – keep in mind that she’s only been at it for a week and it takes 7-10 days to get decent polling in most cases.  Her approval rating is already sharply higher than it was a couple months ago by virtue of becoming the nominee.  However, in some polls so is Trump’s; perhaps because of surviving an assassination attempt, Trump is closer to 50% approval in some polls than he has been in years. 

National polling has Harris and Trump within a few points of each other with Harris rising – but that’s not indicative of who’s going to win the Electoral College.  The main question is what’s happening in the six swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – and whether Kamala causes any other states – primarily North Carolina – to become contestable.  Joe Biden’s stronghold was in the Midwestern ‘blue wall.’  He was the guy from Scranton, after all. 

Can Kamala make Arizona, Nevada and/or Georgia close enough to win?  And does she retain enough strength in the Midwest to close the deal in those states?  It’s one reason why her choice of running mate matters, as the three reported finalists – Shapiro, Kelly and Cooper hail from PA, AZ and NC.  

Given the rate of fundraising and the compressed time frame, the Harris campaign should already be ploughing its time and energy into the swing states.  The money will continue to come.  Figure out who can move the needle in the states that matter – including the candidate – and go door-to-door. 

I’m voting for Kamala and I hope she wins.  I think Trump’s a deeply flawed human who shouldn’t occupy the most powerful office in the land.  Campaigns tend to be won by whichever candidate peaks at the right time.  It’s certainly easy to imagine that Trump peaked too soon, while Kamala’s campaign is only getting started. 

If you’re looking for local candidates to support, check out the Forward-endorsed candidates here.  We are having a reunion picnic in LA on Sunday – join us if you are in town!  

Kamala Harris

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great. 
 
The Democrats have quickly coalesced around Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee.  I will be voting for her and her running mate this Fall.  I hope she wins. 
 
Those of you who know me know that I believe Trump to be a disastrous candidate who will accelerate the disintegration of what’s left of American institutional trust.  I know several people who worked for his first administration who resigned or were fired.  They testify to Trump’s malignant nature as a leader.  Many of them quietly scuttled Trump’s worst ideas so they never saw the light.  His 2nd administration would be much worse – it would be staffed with sycophants and toadies who will actually try to follow through on Trump’s lesser impulses.  I fear we would see abuses of power, political revenge and profiteering on a level we have never seen before with Trump back, buttressed by a Supreme Court ruling that makes every official act defensible. 
 
If you’ve seen Trump lately, he seems increasingly old and deranged.  That’s not the person you want in charge.  
 
I have had the grim sense that Trump would return to power for months, even years now.  Part of that was driven by my conviction that Joe Biden was a weak, unpopular, aging incumbent.  I was incredibly frustrated that Biden and the Democrats were going to essentially serve the country back to Trump on a silver platter without much of a fight. 
 
Joe Biden stepping aside has changed that.  Thanks Joe! 

Kamala Harris has given the Democrats a new lease on life.  She and her campaign have raised over $100 million in the first several days from hundreds of thousands of donors.  Volunteers are signing up in droves.  Kamala seems energized and so do voters and surrogates who were in despair just last week.  The sense of inevitability that has accompanied Donald Trump has now lifted. 
 
Can Kamala Harris win in November? 
 
Her campaign is off to a phenomenal start.  I think she’ll win the popular vote.  But the road ahead remains fraught.  The Democrats’ path to victory runs through six states:  Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.  The Dems would like to include North Carolina on that list; the Republicans would like to include Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire.  But it’s really just the core six swing states. 

Before Kamala Harris became the candidate, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia had all drifted toward Trump, leaving Dems with the narrow path of winning all of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  Trump is now spending $100 million in those three states to define Kamala negatively.  Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, is a top choice to be Kamala’s running mate in part because he would help a lot in PA – he’s very popular there.  I like that choice.  Mark Kelly would have a similar, if lesser, impact in Arizona. 
 
Normally, VP picks don’t matter all that much.  But in this race everything could matter because it will likely be decided by a relative handful of voters in a few states. 
 
On that front, Trump is likely regretting his pick of JD Vance, who doesn’t bring a lot to the table electorally and may make things worse at the margins.  Vance is the rare kind of politician who seems to court hostility, minus the celebrity status to make it okay.    
 
Kamala needs to simultaneously turnout Democratic base voters and win over wavering swing voters in the Midwest and the sunbelt who don’t like Trump.  She remains undefined in the minds of many voters.  It’s a sprint.  Her path is narrow.  But there is a path, which is something I could not have said only days ago. 
 
It’s the best chance we have to fend off Trump.  I hope the country takes it. 
 
If you want better choices, we do too!  Forward is backing good local candidates around the country and is growing all of the time.  Check us out here.  And if you're in LA we are having a picnic on August 4th!