The Debate

The presidential debate took place on Tuesday.  How did it go and what will the impact be? 

Kamala Harris had the more important assignment.  Her job was to seem commanding, confident, and competent in the face of Trump for 90 minutes.  29% of Americans prior to the debate said that they still didn’t have enough information about her to have an opinion.  Kamala’s goal was to make it natural for millions of Americans to imagine her as commander-in-chief.

Kamala cleared the bar.  And in that respect, Tuesday was a huge victory for her.  She was sharp, composed and on message throughout.  She got an enormous number of digs in and seemed completely unintimidated by Trump, even bemused.

Trump on the other hand wanted to come across as in control and non-contemptuous while tying Kamala Harris to a very unpopular Joe Biden.  His message definitely meandered.  He went down numerous blind alleys.  He got more airtime but it didn’t necessarily help him. 

Kamala was thoroughly prepared and it showed.  Her performance reassured many.  63% of viewers in one poll deemed her the victor, not too far off from Trump’s margin over Joe Biden in the last debate in June.  I think Kamala’s performance will win over a sliver of wavering swing voters in the swing states who wanted to make sure she was up to the challenge before committing to vote for her.  Taylor Swift’s endorsement may be a sign for those waiting for this kind of performance. 

What impact will it have on the race?  It probably keeps it neck-and-neck.  The polling had started to shift to Trump in the days leading up to the debate.  Trump’s following is locked in and the debate will have no impact on his voters.  His ‘the country is going to hell’ message works for his audience.  Remember, about 75% of Americans think we’re on the wrong track.  This race is going to come down to a relative handful of voters in the swing districts. 

The single biggest thing that Kamala could do to drive her momentum is to start doing interviews, not just with major national press but with local outlets in the swing states and unconventional shows with major reach (e.g. “Hot Ones” with Harris would do a ton of views).  Given that she now has answers to most every major topic memorized and prepared, they should get her out there.  The most important asset every campaign has is candidate time, and doing press is one of the highest-leverage ways to utilize that time. 

There may not even be another presidential debate.  The time for risk aversion has passed.  Now is the time to try and win by putting your top player on the field as much as possible.  Don’t play not to lose.  Play to win. 

Will Kamala Harris be the next President?  The odds went up after Tuesday night.  She did the most important thing – she was presidential.  Less than 8 weeks to go. 

If you’d like to support some local candidates, check out who Forward is endorsing!  One of them might represent you.  

I Debated Kamala Harris 5 Times in 2020. Here is What I Would Tell Her Team

I wrote another op-ed for Newsweek - and here it is. Hope you enjoy it.

I Debated Kamala Harris 5 Times in 2020. Here is What I Would Tell Her Team

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump debate for the first time on September 10. It is the highest-stakes event to date for both candidates. In a race this close, it's not an exaggeration to say that the outcome in November could rest on how this 90-minute debate goes. Traditionally the viewership is the highest for the first debate between opponents as well, so this is the big one.

I debated Harris five times during the primary season of 2020, literally standing next to her several of those evenings. To say that I debated her is a little bit misleading though — she and I never got into a direct argument as it never made sense for either of us to be attacking the other. We had a good, friendly relationship on the campaign trail, and Harris was generally focused on the candidates above her, most notably Joe Biden in the first debate. I was focused on trying to get my message out and keep the campaign going; I tended to get less airtime than other candidates because I got fewer questions and generally played nice.

So, what would I say about Harris as a debater? She gets high marks for poise and being able to recall and deliver messages. She prefers to use notes, which makes sense given her legal background — she used the time before the moderators got started to reproduce notes on the notepaper we were given. (Note: I did the exact same thing.) She certainly has the stamina for a 90-minute debate. She'll expect hostility from Trump, and I expect her to be steady and strong. She was taken by surprise by Tulsi Gabbard's pointed and persistent attacks four years ago but there will be no surprise here. Outside of the primaries, she debated former Vice President Mike Pence four years ago, and I thought that she was clear and composed throughout.

Trump's debate style, on the other hand, is based on appearance and attacks — he'll stand there and run down his opponent. He's pugnacious, spontaneous and not overly substantive; some of what he says won't necessarily make sense or be true. He's a performer. The main way to prepare to face him is to load up with substance to be able to confidently call out his record and his misrepresentations and to match his energy. It's particularly important to come in strong at the beginning when viewership is highest, and the tone is set. I would literally be playing pump-up music and have Harris prepare for a prizefight. I'd also give her a bit of time away from the trail to make sure that her energy is high.

A lot of debate prep is memorizing 90-second responses to questions on different subject areas: foreign policy, economy, immigration, health care, education, etc. Harris' team has been preparing her for the debate for weeks, including mock debates with an experienced Trump stand-in. I'm sure she's had talking points accompanying her on the campaign trail to study and that recalling them won't be an issue. The truth is that when you're campaigning, you're often on a bus or a plane and either calling people or studying notes. She's had plenty of opportunity to get the substance down.

That said, I was a little bit surprised that some of these talking points weren't more clearly evident in her recent CNN interview. You can often pick up on debate prep in interviews, because if someone has been memorizing paragraphs in response to various cues they will naturally utilize them when asked any related question.

Harris will benefit from the visual — she is 19 years younger than Trump and looks like it. She is almost always clearer and more coherent. For her, the main issue is to come across as presidential and commanding for 90 minutes. If she does this, she'll have a good night.

Trump, on the other hand, could stand to demonstrate some self-control and that he's still sharp. President Joe Biden's performance in June was so abysmal that Trump benefited from the contrast. He won't have that advantage against Harris.

Which candidate has more to gain or lose? It's clearly Harris. Trump is a known quantity, while for many Americans Harris is still new and introducing herself. Can people see her as president? Are the memes of her delivering faulty responses simply internet fodder that she can dismiss with a strong performance? If she is resolute, confident and unflappable for 90 minutes against Trump she'll be in a much stronger position.

Some debates don't change a race that much; viewers simply think that the candidate they prefer did great. This race remains neck-and-neck, and the debate is the most important night for both campaigns. The last debate knocked a candidate out. Will history be made on Tuesday night?

If I were advising Harris' team, the main thing I would emphasize is to give her the chance to do whatever she finds most rejuvenating the day before and the day of the debate to make sure she is feeling good, energized, and ready to go. Make it so she's happy to be there to take it to Trump.

Campaigns have a tendency to overwork candidates — Biden showed up to the first debate under the weather and overprepared, and was reduced to grasping for factoids that were clearly eluding him.

I had a bad night my first debate, so my team switched gears from having me do interviews the day before to me shooting hoops with friends. My performance went up, so we stuck with that as a new routine for debate day for the next five debates. It made me happier to be on the stage because I would have had a good, invigorating day the day before.

Harris struck me as a bit worn down during her CNN interview. And she has never met Trump face-to-face, so it will feel awkward and uncomfortable. I have the sense that her team is treating everything as a sprint given the compressed time frame and her relative youth. That would be a mistake. Harris will have to bring a much higher level of energy next Tuesday than she did for the joint interview with her vice-presidential pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. After all, Joe Biden didn't get a second debate this season. Harris and her team should approach this as if it's the only debate of the year, because it might as well be.

Want to support independent candidates who are making a positive impact?  Check out the Forward Party. We are working on local races around the country. 

The Mechanic

Hello, I hope that your summer has ended on a high!  Labor Day means back to school. 

The next 64 days are going to be busy as Election Day is just about two months away.  The top of the ticket gets all of the attention but there are many other races under the radar that could be pivotal. 

What would you say if I told you that an Independent is running for Senate against an Incumbent in Nebraska and is now virtually tied?  That is the case for Dan Osborn, a Navy veteran, mechanic and labor leader who is running against Deb Fischer, a Republican incumbent who is not terribly popular.  “People in Nebraska are tired of politics as usual.  There’s no love lost for our current leaders.  Anytime I talk to someone in person they get excited as soon as they hear about me and the campaign.  That’s why I spend every day driving around the state talking to voters.  We are growing every day.  If we get the resources to get the message out, we are going to win.” 

I’ve met with Dan and he’s the real deal; a fed-up 49-year-old military veteran who wants to change things for the better.  Imagine a real-life mechanic as a U.S. Senator.  “Every day, I roll up my sleeves to fix something.  No institution in America needs fixing more than the United States Senate.”  It’s a very appealing message. 

Can Dan win?  His opponent, Deb Fischer, is 73 years old, not terribly popular and hasn’t been meaningfully opposed in 12 years.  There is no Democrat in the race.  The usual playbook in this situation is to try and paint the Independent as the minority party.  But Dan doesn’t feel like a conventional Democrat given his military background and man-of-the-people profile.

Dan’s race reminds me of Evan McMullin’s race in Utah two years ago.  If you recall, Evan was an Independent military veteran running against the incumbent Mike Lee.  The Democrats wisely decided not to run a candidate because in Utah the Democrat is something of a sacrificial lamb. 

Evan got 43% of the vote in 2022, losing to Mike Lee who got 53%.  Still, that 10 point margin was 10 percent closer than the margin Trump beat Biden by in Utah.  That’s a big difference.  Running an Independent is the recipe for introducing competition where there seems to be none possible. 

It’s a similar situation in Nebraska, a state Trump won by 19 points.  It turns out that Utah and Nebraska are typical in that 36 of the 50 states are essentially dominated by one party.  Hence, the general elections in those states tend to be formalities. 

That makes for bad incentives and unmotivated leadership.  Why rock the boat if you’re going to coast to re-election? 

In Nebraska, the Democrats are also wisely stepping aside and ceding the field to Dan.

Will the outcome be different this time?  Every race is different, and at some point the Independent candidate will break through.  Dan happens to be pro-choice, which is going to help in November. 

If Dan were to win it would be a political earthquake.  I’ve donated to Dan’s campaign and hope that you’ll consider doing so as well. 

He’s right that politics as usual won’t cure what ails us. An independent in Nebraska becoming a U.S. Senator would help.  Let's help make it happen.  

Want to support candidates like Dan?  Check out the Forward Party. We are working on local races around the country. 

An Honest DNC Speech

Newsweek asked me to write another Op-Ed after the DNC - and here it is. Hope you enjoy it.

I Left the Democratic Party to Start a Third Party. I'm Still Voting for Kamala and You Should Too

I spoke at the DNC four years ago (it was virtual because of COVID so I beamed my remarks from a studio in Manhattan). Two years later, I left the Democratic Party; I'd come to believe that the two-party system could not meaningfully address the problems of our time. To fix the problem, I co-founded the Forward party, a much needed third American political party, so I was obviously not invited to speak in Chicago. But if I had been invited to give a DNC speech, it would have started like this: My name is Andrew Yang, and I'm here to make the case that you should vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the fall.

Why? Those of you attending the DNC probably already have a sense of why. 57 percent of Democrats think the country is on the right track, and yet, you are in the minority. Among Independents—about half of voters—only 17 percent agree, and for Republicans, it's a tiny 7.7 percent. Only 18 percent of Americans total are satisfied with how things are going in the United States according to Gallup.

That's the real struggle: Most Americans don't think things are going well. They feel anxious about their family's future. Time does not feel like it's on their side, so they naturally want a change at the top. This is particularly true for Americans who don't have a college degree—and it's they who will decide who the next president is.

This election will not be determined by you and me; it will be determined by the welder in Wisconsin, the waitress in Michigan, the blackjack dealer in Nevada. These are folks who voted for Obama, then Trump, then Biden, and are now unhappy but unsure what to do next. They will be among the 50,000 to 100,000 independent voters in the swing states who choose the next President.

So the question is, what do these voters or potential voters want to see in November?

They want their lives to be a little bit easier. They want some breathing room—not sticker shock—when they head to the grocery store to pick up food for their families. They want to feel like maybe tomorrow will be better than today. But they've been burnt. They are skeptical that their votes will matter. Many of them naturally mistrust both the government and Democrats. They dislike anyone who seems to be telling them what to do, how to think, or how to feel.

I know this firsthand. When I ran for President four years ago, 42 percent of my supporters were not Democrats. One of them was asked by a Fox News anchor, "Why Yang?"

"He does not seem to be judging me," she said.

That's how Harris and Walz can begin the process of wooing these voters: Start with no judgment. Let's not pretend or tell voters how they should feel. They know their circumstances best.

As for the voters, here's my argument for why they should choose Kamala Harris over Donald Trump:

First, if you think things are getting worse not better in your life and in your families' lives, you're probably right. The American way of life has been deteriorating in terms of the affordability of housing, health care, a college education, and childcare for a generation or more. And both parties share responsibility for that.

So let's stipulate that things are indeed getting worse. What are you going to do? It's tempting to side with Donald Trump, because he seems like a change from the status quo, and you might remember the economy of four years ago fondly. The problem is, he's the wrong guy.

Trump is out for himself. He's a bad leader. He's not going to improve your family's circumstances. The vast majority of the people who worked for him four years ago are against him today. Think of the worst boss you've ever had, the person who no one wanted to work for, who churned through employees left and right. That's Donald Trump. Now he's 78, with his best days behind him, and he's more impulsive than ever. For any good idea he has, he'll have five bad ones, and some of them will actually do harm.

Not sold on Kamala Harris? That's all right. You don't have to be. It's not about her; it's about you and your family. I believe under a Harris administration, the federal government will do a few things that will actually lighten your load.

Remember in 2021 when you were getting some extra money for your kids? That will come back. The Democrats also seem ready to tackle medical debt, which they should have done in the first place, and people will have more freedom to make their own medical decisions. More of the drugs you use will become a little bit more affordable, and you might get more paid time off from work if you have a child. And in some parts of the country, there may be a construction project or highway getting built.

Some of what Kamala Harris and the Democrats are talking about won't happen, of course. But I believe a few of the costs that are pinning you down and choking you will lighten and you will breathe a tiny bit easier if Harris wins.

Will it reverse the decay of the past number of decades? No it won't. Will some of the people involved be irritating and sanctimonious? Yes. Will you occasionally roll your eyes at the condescension and posturing? Sure. Will it remedy the bureaucracy and dysfunction that make us fear for the future? No.

But is it the right choice in this election? Yes, it is.

Trump is the guy who will make you feel better for a minute but lead you to regret it later. He's like junk food: You don't want that for four years every day. He's driven by grievance. He has the wrong character and motivation.

Supporting Kamala will be, in my view, the better vote for your family's prospects for a brighter, or a slightly less forbidding future. Kamala Harris is the vote to live to fight another day. There's always tomorrow. Let's keep the country intact and capable of improvement. That's the way I'll be voting and I hope you do too.

Want to create an alternative to the two parties one local election at a time?  Check out Forward Party and consider making a donation today – we have candidates at every level all across the country!

RFK Endorsing Trump

RFK Jr. dropped out of the race today and endorsed Donald Trump. 

This turn of events saddens me.  As you probably know I’m someone who thinks that Donald Trump has the wrong character and makeup to be a good President.  I know multiple people who worked for him and regard him as immoral and destructive, and these were people who saw him every day. 

RFK started his campaign as a Democrat and seemed to have a similar outlook.  He switched to an Independent when he didn’t see a path in the Democratic primaries in part because there were no debates. 

RFK’s campaign raised about $50 million directly and another $50 million through outside groups.  But running as an Independent meant having to get ballot access in state after state, which is costly, difficult and fraught with legal challenges.  His polling peaked around 19% but more recently has been closer to 4 or 5%. 

RFK’s vote share decreased when Joe Biden dropped out and was replaced by Kamala Harris.  His remaining voters overlap more with Trump’s support.  If RFK had remained in the race, it probably would have helped Kamala at the margins. 

So, what does RFK’s endorsement mean?  It depends on what his voters do.  Some of them will follow him to Trump.  Some of them won’t vote. Some of them will go to other third party candidates.  A handful may even go to Kamala Harris. 

I think that RFK’s endorsement is worth about .5% to 1% of the vote for Donald Trump in the all-important swing states, maybe even more if RFK joins Trump on the trail.  Recent polling has RFK at 7% in Nevada, 6% in Wisconsin, 5% in Arizona and Michigan, 4% in Georgia and 3% in Pennsylvania.  The margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is well below those numbers in all of those states.

I’m the co-chair of a third party myself – the Forward Party - so I have a sense of what motivates voters who don’t like the two parties.  Indeed, 50% of Americans now identify as Independents, though some of them lean one way or the other. 

RFK’s voters tend to be people who feel unspoken for and left out by the current system.  Many are low propensity voters who have given up on politics as usual.  If RFK campaigns in the swing states, he could actually expand the electorate by a crucial margin – getting an extra 10,000 anti-institutional voters showing up in each swing state is a big deal. 

Why is RFK endorsing Trump?  I think much of it is that he has felt respected by Trump and his team, while the Democrats refused to even take a meeting and often sued him to keep him off ballots.  Of course, it’s difficult to trash someone as an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist and then say now “We welcome him into the fold!” 

For the record, I think this is a mistake.  If you’re serious about reaching out to Americans with different viewpoints, RFK Jr. and his followers qualify.  And his voters genuinely may comprise the difference-makers in a tight election.  If you want to win, you should at least have the conversation. 

I also think that RFK Jr. endorsing Donald Trump is the wrong decision.  Okay, the Dems have been jerks to you.  And there may be a plum role for you in the Trump administration, as they don’t particularly care about who runs various agencies.  But if you thought Donald Trump was the answer, why run in the first place? 

There are many who will dismiss this turn of events as marginal to the race.  I disagree, as in a race this tight any significant factor could matter.  RFK Jr. kindled a genuine political movement that is now backing Trump.  Trump’s odds of victory just went up and the most significant independent presidential candidate of the last twenty years just joined his team.  If that doesn’t make you pause, it should.     

Want to create an alternative to the two parties one local election at a time?  Check out Forward Party and consider making a donation today – we have candidates at every level all across the country! 

It’s DNC Week

Hello, I hope that your summer is ending on a high note. 

The DNC takes place this week in Chicago.  I expect the Dems to run a high-quality event, and the energy will be high. 

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have been enjoying a honeymoon period despite most voters having little sense of either of their bios or backgrounds.  Fleshing out who the candidates are will be a plus, as will the parade of Democratic dignitaries, from Joe Biden, the Obamas and the Clintons to up-and-comers like Wes Moore, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro.  

The Democrats have a raft of appealing figures and a rich heritage to draw on – note that at the Republican Convention there was no Bush or Romney hearkening back to fondly-remembered past administrations.  It was really the Trump show. 

4 years ago I spoke at the DNC, but it was a virtual event due to COVID and I beamed my remarks from a studio in Manhattan.  They approved my speech down to the word and timed it down to the second.  There were multiple reviewers.  Every speaking slot is highly in-demand and the planners want to dole them out only to the few who are integral to the message and story they want to put forward.  People imagine a raucous affair, but in contemporary politics it’s a tightly scripted and choreographed made-for-TV special.  Or at least that’s what the goal is, as in a live arena more spontaneity will emerge.

The main variable will be whether protestors make it into the broadcast – when I attended a Joe Biden speech in South Carolina earlier this year there were multiple protestors during his address.  Thousands of protestors are expected outside the Chicago convention hall at a site a half-mile away and 30 delegates are ‘uncommitted’ and thus natural protestors. One would think that it would be tough in this context to get tons more people inside the hall given heightened scrutiny of party delegates and attendees. But there will definitely be some protestors in the building. In South Carolina, pro-Biden chants quickly rose to up to drown out any protestors, and countermeasures will be robust. 

The second variable is whether the Dems decide to invite and include moderate Republicans and Independents in the primetime speaking slots.  In past conventions they included figures like Mike Bloomberg and John Kasich.  This year, the possibilities include folks like Mark Cuban, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger or Geoff Duncan, the former Lt. Gov. of Georgia who has endorsed Kamala Harris.  It would serve to broaden the anti-Trump coalition and I hope they do this, but they might not as the time slots are very coveted. 

The third thing to keep an eye out for is if someone emerges and creates buzz for the future with a particularly outstanding speech the way that Barack Obama did in 2004.  It hasn’t really happened since, but a half-dozen people will certainly try to make the most of the platform. 

The Democrats will put on a good show and the Harris-Walz ticket will, I expect, get a polling bump out of it.  The expectation is that afterwards the race will tighten and remain close throughout, with the next major catalyst on the schedule being the first presidential debate on September 10th.  The Harris campaign is also putting more policy meat on the bone out there and weighing taking unscripted interviews. 

Will the race follow its expected course?  In many ways, the goal of the DNC is to minimize any surprises.  But in this cycle, surprises may be par for the course.     

If you're not pumped about your choices, Forward is endorsing dozens of candidates around the country – check them out here and support them as one of them could represent you! Last week, I was asked to write an Op-Ed for Newsweek about the Democrats and democracy – you can read it here!

Defending Democracy

I was asked to write an Op-Ed for Newsweek about the Democrats and democracy.  Here's what I wrote — hope you enjoy it.

I Hope Harris Wins. But the Democrats Need to Answer for Their Failures to Protect Democracy

Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz have been enjoying a honeymoon period in the presidential race that I expect will last at least through the convention. Their rise has caught former President Trump and GOP VP Nominee JD Vance flatfooted.

I myself endorsed Kamala Harris shortly after Joe Biden stepped aside. I am someone who finds Donald Trump to have the wrong character and makeup to be President. I ran for the office four years ago in part to try and keep him from returning.

And yet Donald Trump may win in November. After all, he won in 2016 and was about 43,000 swing voters away from winning again in 2020.

For months I have been dreading Trump's return to power. Why? The Democratic nominee was Joe Biden, who I thought would obviously lose to Trump, handing him back the keys without a fight.

It's easily forgotten, but if not for the early debate on June 27th, Joe Biden would be the nominee right now, and we would all be subject to endless stories about how he's still got it or is as sharp as a tack, despite overwhelming evidence of his decline. If Trump had simply delayed the first debate until after the conventions, when they customarily take place, he would be on the fast track to the presidency today.

Democrats are fond of saying "Democracy is on the line" when they talk about Donald Trump. Trump denied he lost the 2020 election and hoped to overturn it via an angry mob. We can easily imagine him refusing to accept defeat in November. And yet Democrats were inches away from handing him back the reins of power because of an unwillingness to challenge Joe Biden, who was clearly too old and faltering to run for re-election.

I saw Joe Biden dozens of times on the trail four years ago. I was on stage with him for seven primary debates. Back then, he was aging but vital. I saw him earlier this year in South Carolina, and his decline was evident. He hardly seemed like the same person; the last four years have taken a significant toll, as they might for anyone in his early eighties with such a stressful, demanding role.

One sitting Democrat made the case that Joe Biden was too old and infirm in the primaries—Congressman Dean Phillips. Dean's reward? Ostracization by his own party. A primary challenger for his congressional seat backed by an establishment eager to punish him. A premature end to his political career. Dean Phillips demonstrated more principle, courage and heart than all of the putative leaders in his party who were at the time falling over themselves to bolster Joe and brand Dean an outcast, only for Dean's case to be proven right less than six months later.

If Democrats are serious about defending democracy, there are a number of things that they should commit to.

First, they should pledge to hold robust primaries no matter what. They did not this cycle, canceling state primaries without a single vote being cast and refusing to hold debates, with the logic being that Joe was an incumbent and incumbents shouldn't have challengers. That is asinine. If an incumbent can't easily dispatch challengers from within their own party, they are probably not going to fare well in November. We saw that very clearly this year. Imagine if Joe's decline had been evident back in January; there could have been a genuine process that would have introduced the nation to the next generation of leadership.

Second, they should stop boosting election deniers. The Democratic Party has been in the habit of spending millions boosting extreme candidates like Doug Mastriano and Joe Gibbs in Republican primaries so that they have easier opponents in the general election. This may seem like smart politics, but it is cynical and accelerates the general loss of faith and confidence in our institutions.

Third, they should stop fighting measures like open primaries and ranked choice voting that promise to make the system more dynamic. Open primaries in particular simply enable more voters to vote. Democrats spend millions of dollars against these measures every year across the country including for this November. Ranked choice voting gives people the chance to vote their true preferences.

Democracy does not mean, "you must vote for us." Democracy means listening to the people and giving them real voice and choice.

One proven means of combating polarization is local news. Over 3,000 local newspapers have gone out of business the past two decades, to be replaced by social media feeds and cable news. Democrats should be supporting the Community News and Small Business Support Act that provides a tax credit for local businesses and publications. If you read local news you're more likely to vote in local elections.

51 percent of Americans now self-categorize as Independents, according to Gallup, and an even higher proportion of young people don't subscribe to either party. There is a bill in Congress called the Fair Representation Act. It would shift congressional districts, which currently have one representative, to new, bigger districts that would have multiple representatives from different parties. Some would be neither Democrats nor Republicans. This would give rise to new voices in our country and make us more resilient to authoritarianism because there would be more seats at the table that are not beholden to the leadership of one party or the other.

You know what would attract droves of Independent voters? Term limits for members of Congress. 75 percent of Americans are for them as we sense that our leaders are more and more divorced from the day-to-day of their constituents. Banning stock trading for members falls into the same category.

If Kamala Harris and the Democrats are triumphant in November, there will likely be much celebration and self-congratulation. I certainly hope the Harris-Walz ticket wins. But will they actually replenish democracy? Or will they say, "See, we were right all along!"

If history is any indication, they'll fail to do much while in power to truly modernize our democracy. Getting term limits, multi-member districts, and ranked-choice voting ratified into law have failed again and again, even with Democrats in power.

If Democrats start standing up for democracy in action instead of rhetoric, the country will be far better off. If not, new characters will continue to push for change, and Democrats will find themselves increasingly at odds with the people they claim to represent.

The Human-Centered Economy

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great.  My kids don’t start school until Labor Day so we are milking the summer for all it can give.   

4 years ago I ran for President arguing for Universal Basic Income based on the idea that AI was coming and was going to do away with many American jobs. 

Today, AI is here and gathering steam, and is already displacing workers in different fields.  One joke going around is, “Why can’t AI do my dishes?”  Instead it’s consuming many cognitive tasks, from coding to writing to art and design to legal work.  Friends who are starting companies marvel at how they are hiring fewer people for roles that now get handled by software.  At the same time, friends who have started automation companies are seeing continuing growth and adoption. 

There are almost 2 million call center workers in the United States.  I believe most will eventually be replaced by AI.  That’s an obvious application, but many will be affected in more inobvious ways.  Perhaps relatedly, I’ve had multiple friends lose their jobs lately in finance, tech and media.  Most of these people were my age – in their 40s – and were on the pricier side.  Organizations will always look to do more with less, and some are presently pruning costs.   

The question is, what lies ahead for human workers? 

Here’s the core idea:  If the only measurements are cost and efficiency, more and more of us are going to lose to the machines.  AI will get smarter and faster in ways that we cannot. 

I think people are waking up to this.  4 years ago, people would sometimes talk about reskilling and being lifelong learners as if we can all scramble above the water line if only we’re a little more nimble.  Now, there’s a growing recognition that this is going to be unrealistic. 

I continue to hold that addressing poverty is the most direct and concrete way we can help people.  Humanity Forward is lobbying Congress for a revival of the enhanced child tax credit.  There is a ton of needless suffering and deprivation in this country and it is fueling our politics in dangerous ways. 

I would get asked this on the campaign trail several years ago, and I would sometimes describe how my wife Evelyn was at home with our children, one of whom is on the autism spectrum.  How much was her time and work valued at in our current marketplace?  The answer is “zero” even though we all know that her work might be some of the most important and valuable that a person can do. 

Imagine an economy where education and nurturing has its own value, along with arts and creativity and health and wellness.  I joke sometimes that we should probably be getting paid to go to the gym, because it’s great for society and saves us all money if we stay healthy. 

A multipolar economy is our way out of the grinding wheels of the machine – that we build an economy around human values and helping people live fruitful lives.  Our time is the most important resource we have to offer, independent of what the cost-based marketplace currently assigns us.  There can be more ways to both measure value and value our time. 

Last week on Freakonomics Radio I was asked what a human-centered economy could look like in practice.  I responded, “Let’s say I tutor your child at math.  That’s what I’m good at.  I get a 2-hour time credit for my work.  I then give it to someone else in return for their help cleaning my garage.  I’m not great at that.  That person then gives the time credit to someone else in return for a homecooked meal, which is also something I’m not good at.  Everyone has something that they can contribute.  If we start valuing and trading people’s time in new ways, we could enable a different sort of economy that works for many more of us.” 

This is not a new idea; Stephen Dubner of Freakonomics became interested in Timebanking when he read a book by Edgar Cahn called “No More Throw-away People.”  Edgar Cahn was Bobby Kennedy’s speechwriter in the 1960s, a time when the war on poverty was front and center.  Technology could enable time banking or trading in powerful new ways.  It’s also making the development of a human-centered economy all the more important. 

If we’re going to lose a race to the machines, perhaps we should change the racetrack and measurements to something we can win and be happy about.  How do we build an economy that works for people?  By seeing to it that there are ways to create meaning, purpose and value for as many as possible. 

My extended interview appears this week on the podcast and you can check out the Freakonomics interview here. If you’re interested in getting involved, send us an email to time@humanityforwardfoundation.org. 

I know that this may seem utopian to some of you reading this – and I don’t think that’s a bad thing.  The fact is that we’re going to veer toward either dystopia or utopia over time, and I’d vastly prefer the latter.  Which are we trending towards right now?  Someone’s got to paint the picture of abundance and possibility – it might as well be us. 

99 Days

Hello, hope that your summer is going well. 

It’s been 16 days since Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, 14 days since JD Vance was named the Republican running mate and 8 days since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.  Harris’s campaign has raised $200 million in that time, a whopping amount that has lifted her to financial parity and beyond.  That’s three major events in essentially the last two weeks, with some of them already feeling like a lifetime ago.    

Kamala Harris will name a VP any day now leading up to the Democratic National Convention on August 19th – 22nd.  At that point, there will be 75 days – about 11 weeks – until Election Day on November 5th, with many states allowing votes to be cast before then.  Trump recently cast doubt on whether he will make the next Presidential Debate scheduled for September 10th against Kamala Harris, saying he wanted to make sure she was actually the nominee.  Many debates don’t really impact a race, but this one definitely could.  Heck, the last one caused a nominee change. 

Some are proposing that Trump might swap JD Vance out as the press is enjoying airing out some of Vance’s more impolitic past statements.  I doubt Vance gets swapped out but it would be a way to get a press cycle and select someone who might actually put more voters at ease. 

It’s going to be an action-packed 3 months. 

Data is coming in on how Kamala Harris polls vs. Trump – keep in mind that she’s only been at it for a week and it takes 7-10 days to get decent polling in most cases.  Her approval rating is already sharply higher than it was a couple months ago by virtue of becoming the nominee.  However, in some polls so is Trump’s; perhaps because of surviving an assassination attempt, Trump is closer to 50% approval in some polls than he has been in years. 

National polling has Harris and Trump within a few points of each other with Harris rising – but that’s not indicative of who’s going to win the Electoral College.  The main question is what’s happening in the six swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – and whether Kamala causes any other states – primarily North Carolina – to become contestable.  Joe Biden’s stronghold was in the Midwestern ‘blue wall.’  He was the guy from Scranton, after all. 

Can Kamala make Arizona, Nevada and/or Georgia close enough to win?  And does she retain enough strength in the Midwest to close the deal in those states?  It’s one reason why her choice of running mate matters, as the three reported finalists – Shapiro, Kelly and Cooper hail from PA, AZ and NC.  

Given the rate of fundraising and the compressed time frame, the Harris campaign should already be ploughing its time and energy into the swing states.  The money will continue to come.  Figure out who can move the needle in the states that matter – including the candidate – and go door-to-door. 

I’m voting for Kamala and I hope she wins.  I think Trump’s a deeply flawed human who shouldn’t occupy the most powerful office in the land.  Campaigns tend to be won by whichever candidate peaks at the right time.  It’s certainly easy to imagine that Trump peaked too soon, while Kamala’s campaign is only getting started. 

If you’re looking for local candidates to support, check out the Forward-endorsed candidates here.  We are having a reunion picnic in LA on Sunday – join us if you are in town!  

Kamala Harris

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great. 
 
The Democrats have quickly coalesced around Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee.  I will be voting for her and her running mate this Fall.  I hope she wins. 
 
Those of you who know me know that I believe Trump to be a disastrous candidate who will accelerate the disintegration of what’s left of American institutional trust.  I know several people who worked for his first administration who resigned or were fired.  They testify to Trump’s malignant nature as a leader.  Many of them quietly scuttled Trump’s worst ideas so they never saw the light.  His 2nd administration would be much worse – it would be staffed with sycophants and toadies who will actually try to follow through on Trump’s lesser impulses.  I fear we would see abuses of power, political revenge and profiteering on a level we have never seen before with Trump back, buttressed by a Supreme Court ruling that makes every official act defensible. 
 
If you’ve seen Trump lately, he seems increasingly old and deranged.  That’s not the person you want in charge.  
 
I have had the grim sense that Trump would return to power for months, even years now.  Part of that was driven by my conviction that Joe Biden was a weak, unpopular, aging incumbent.  I was incredibly frustrated that Biden and the Democrats were going to essentially serve the country back to Trump on a silver platter without much of a fight. 
 
Joe Biden stepping aside has changed that.  Thanks Joe! 

Kamala Harris has given the Democrats a new lease on life.  She and her campaign have raised over $100 million in the first several days from hundreds of thousands of donors.  Volunteers are signing up in droves.  Kamala seems energized and so do voters and surrogates who were in despair just last week.  The sense of inevitability that has accompanied Donald Trump has now lifted. 
 
Can Kamala Harris win in November? 
 
Her campaign is off to a phenomenal start.  I think she’ll win the popular vote.  But the road ahead remains fraught.  The Democrats’ path to victory runs through six states:  Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.  The Dems would like to include North Carolina on that list; the Republicans would like to include Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire.  But it’s really just the core six swing states. 

Before Kamala Harris became the candidate, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia had all drifted toward Trump, leaving Dems with the narrow path of winning all of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  Trump is now spending $100 million in those three states to define Kamala negatively.  Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, is a top choice to be Kamala’s running mate in part because he would help a lot in PA – he’s very popular there.  I like that choice.  Mark Kelly would have a similar, if lesser, impact in Arizona. 
 
Normally, VP picks don’t matter all that much.  But in this race everything could matter because it will likely be decided by a relative handful of voters in a few states. 
 
On that front, Trump is likely regretting his pick of JD Vance, who doesn’t bring a lot to the table electorally and may make things worse at the margins.  Vance is the rare kind of politician who seems to court hostility, minus the celebrity status to make it okay.    
 
Kamala needs to simultaneously turnout Democratic base voters and win over wavering swing voters in the Midwest and the sunbelt who don’t like Trump.  She remains undefined in the minds of many voters.  It’s a sprint.  Her path is narrow.  But there is a path, which is something I could not have said only days ago. 
 
It’s the best chance we have to fend off Trump.  I hope the country takes it. 
 
If you want better choices, we do too!  Forward is backing good local candidates around the country and is growing all of the time.  Check us out here.  And if you're in LA we are having a picnic on August 4th!

Joe Biden is Out – What’s Next?

Joe Biden did the right thing for the country on Sunday and dropped out of the presidential race.  We should all be grateful.  It was an admirable thing to do. 
 
Joe quickly turned around and endorsed Kamala Harris as the new nominee, and the campaign has already rebranded as “Harris for President.”  Kamala announced her intent to win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention that begins on August 19th.  A small legion of Democrats immediately endorsed her.

Technically, the roughly 4,000 DNC delegates can choose whomever they want as the new nominee.  However, having been pledged to Joe Biden they are likely to adhere to his wishes.  And the past several weeks have drained many Democrats of their desire to hold a competitive mini-primary.  If Joe had dropped out 10 days earlier or so, it might have seemed more enticing. 
 
I think a mini-primary would be the best path forward for multiple reasons.  First, the nominee needs vetting.  You want to put forth the strongest possible candidate.  Second, it would get massive levels of attention for the new generation; who wouldn’t tune in to see who the Dems put forth?  Third, I think pulling the party together afterwards against Trump would be very easy and straightforward.  If your problem has been the anointment of Joe Biden, try to learn from that and avoid repeating the same mistake.

The problem is that other candidates are looking at this situation and clearing the path for Kamala.  Their calculation is this: do I run against the sitting Vice President backed by the President in a compressed time frame and get accused of trying to elbow aside the logical next person up?  Or do I sit this one out, maybe get into the Veepstakes for Kamala and bide my time until 2028?  Most are quickly choosing the latter. 
 
Barack Obama notably recommended a more robust and open process.  But his voice has been outweighed by others who are trying to push for quickly coalescing around Kamala.  Look for a constant stream of Kamala endorsements from delegates and superdelegates in the coming days, making a challenge to her all-the-more daunting. 
 
Here’s the fundamental problem:  I don’t believe Kamala Harris is the strongest candidate against Donald Trump.
 
Kamala has consistently polled as quite unpopular and has some of the disadvantages of incumbency – she can still be blamed for whatever people haven’t liked about the last several years.  Her previous presidential campaign in 2019 underperformed. 
 
When I’ve been asked over the past number of weeks who I thought might be the strongest candidates, I suggested a Gretchen Whitmer – Josh Shapiro ticket that would likely net the Democrats both Michigan and Pennsylvania.  I also think that Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Wes Moore and others would perform quite well.  You could put another half-dozen or so names in here and I wouldn’t disagree, nor would polling.  My instinct has been that the country wants someone new and would vote accordingly. 
 
Kamala Harris at 59 is a vastly better bet than Joe Biden at 81.  I’m glad it’s not Joe.  But if you’re going to go through the trouble of removing your nominee, you should go all the way and try to give yourself the best possible chance of victory.  Isn’t that the point?   
 
Forward is endorsing candidates around the country – check them out here!  Let’s build the Party of the Future that we clearly need.

JD Vance

Yesterday Donald Trump selected JD Vance, the Ohio Senator, as his running mate. 

I got a sinking feeling when I heard the news. 

There were others whom Trump could have chosen for different reasons. 

Doug Burgum would have been a steady business hand with massive resources.  Glenn Youngkin would have reassured moderates and corporate donors.  Nikki Haley would have done the same and appealed to women.  Marco Rubio would have held demographic appeal and foreign policy chops. 

JD Vance is a different kind of choice as a governing partner and now heir apparent to the MAGA movement.  He doesn’t have massive stature on Capitol Hill – his legislation has generally not gone anywhere.  He doesn’t add that much electoral appeal; Vance underperformed in Ohio which isn’t a swing state anyway.  He’s disliked by many.  He’s not the fundraising magnet that some others are. 

What he does have is an actual perspective and thoughts.  He’s a hard right populist who went to Yale Law.  Among his stances: 

• He wouldn’t have certified the 2020 election. 

• “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” 

• “If you wanted to kill a bunch of MAGA voters in the middle of the heartland, how better than to target them and their kids with this deadly fentanyl... it does look intentional.  It’s like Joe Biden wants to punish the people who didn’t vote for him.” 

• “Culture war is class war.”

• “We are in a late republican period... If we’re going to push back against it, we’re going to have to get pretty wild, and pretty far out there, and go in directions that a lot of conservatives right now are uncomfortable with.” 

JD Vance is an alienated darling of the center-left establishment from his time as author of “Hillbilly Elegy.”  He began as an institutionalist, starting a venture capital firm and non-profit to help kids in Ohio, and then quickly ditched them to pursue political power in a red state.  He’s a never Trumper turned ultimate always Trumper.  He won his primary with only 32% of the vote thanks to Trump’s endorsement. 

He’s 39 years old and has a deep relationship with Donald Trump Jr.  He’s going to be with us a long time. 

This is the kind of VP pick you make if you think you’re already going to win and want to inhabit the movement with a philosophy and next-generation leader.  For those who hoped that MAGA would fade when Trump passed from the scene, those hopes are going to be futile.  If they win in November, Trump has ensured a long-term transformation of the Republican Party in his image.  His kids might not have been up for it, but JD Vance is.  Trump’s movement will outlive him. 

If you want to build a new movement to bring the country together, please check out Forward – we are growing quickly.  If you want to encourage the Dems to move on from Joe Biden, go to passthetorchbiden.com.  The margin of victory or defeat will matter.  

The Trump Assassination Attempt

These are dark and difficult times in America. 

On Saturday, Donald Trump narrowly avoided an assassination attempt from an unhinged 20-year old man at a rally in Pennsylvania.  An innocent bystander was killed and others wounded. 

I was stunned and shocked by the news. 

I’m glad Trump survived and will by all accounts make a full recovery.  Political violence has no place in America, and I unequivocally condemn it.  We should be able to disagree without descending into hatred. 

Hundreds of friends reached out to me concerned and saddened for what this means for our country. 

We are no strangers to political violence in the United States.  In the turbulent 1960s, JFK, Malcolm X, Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy were all assassinated in the space of 5 years.  I fear that we are heading back in that direction.

Political polarization has been rising for decades, and a rise in political violence accompanies declining democracies, which is what we now are.  Scholars like Barbara Walter in “How Civil Wars Start” and Stephen Marche in “The Next Civil War” have been projecting this for quite some time.

In “The War on Normal People” I wrote:

“There are about 300 million firearms in the United States, almost one for every man, woman and child.  Disintegration is unlikely to be gentle.”  The shooter was a troubled young man, of which we are not in short supply.

I feel awful for our country that we are here now.

There is a natural impulse to rally around the flag.  Donald Trump was the favorite to win in November before this assassination attempt; that dynamic is even stronger now.

His supporters are enraged at this attempt and many blame the overheated rhetoric in our political landscape.  They’re not wrong.  The truth is that both sides routinely run down the other side in language that incites hostility and contempt.  I wish it would stop.

After each event like this, there are those who appeal to cool down the temperature before returning to their partisan habits mere days later.  Our muscle memory of tribalism is growing stronger and our institutions weaker. 

History is slipping in the wrong direction.  An innocent bystander was killed on Saturday.  I fear he won’t be the last.

To help ease our polarization, check out Forward today.  We need more than two sides.  

Pass the Torch

“81-year-old man holds nation hostage – film at 11.” 

It has been 10 days since Joe Biden’s disastrous debate.  8 days later he sat for a 22-minute interview with George Stephanopoulos that didn’t convince anyone of anything but perhaps the President’s obstinacy and disdain for polls. 

I think this is Joe Biden’s final week as the Democratic nominee.  Today, Congress returns to session and dozens of swing state legislators will convene to determine how they can best keep their jobs and get Joe Biden off of the top of the ticket.  I personally spoke to at least one more member who is going to call on Joe to step down in the coming days.  Respected Senator Mark Warner is assembling a mutiny among Senators.  More and more donors go public each day.   

The boat is springing leaks more quickly than the Biden team can patch them – and no one is scared of retribution anymore.  For the swing state legislators, what frightens them is being part of a blowout in November.   

A journalist compared the fissure between what Democrats are saying in public and what they are saying in private to the behavior of Republicans under Trump – they would bemoan his venality and then pledge allegiance as soon as a camera went on.  Joe isn’t Trump and it's age not morality, but the pattern remains. 

The same journalist observed that it is only the timidity of the Democrats that gives Joe any hope, and that if they did start speaking their mind it would be clear that Joe has lost his party.  

There are things we can do.  Let your local legislator know you feel that Joe Biden should step aside.  Friends of mine have helped to organize a petition - Pass the Torch, Joe – that I have signed.  I’d encourage you to do so as well and spread the word.  Let's get #passthetorch to be the phrase on everyone's lips.  

There is still time to swap Joe out, get behind a new nominee and defeat Trump in November.  Joe Biden said that he’d step aside if the Lord Almighty asked him to do so.  Well, the Lord might not be available, so we will have to do.  

Looking forward to a new nominee,

Independence Day

Happy 4th of July!  I hope that you are spending the holiday with family and friends. 

What a time in America.  Every day comes with new figures calling for President Biden to step aside as the Democratic nominee. 
 
I said on the podcast Monday with Zach that I believe Joe Biden will indeed step aside.  And I think it will happen fairly quickly.  The first Democratic member of Congress, Lloyd Doggett of Texas, has called for it and I don’t detect any professional repercussions.  Dozens of swing-state officeholders are poised to follow him.  The tone of Jim Clyburn, Nancy Pelosi and others has shifted from their earlier declarations of support to allowing for a mini-primary if Joe isn’t the nominee and saying concerns are legitimate.
 
Watching the press jump on this like a dog tearing at a bone has been fascinating.  I have gotten requests from a dozen outlets.  We should thank our lucky stars that Joe Biden’s team called for this early debate ahead of the convention, else there would have been a tank job in the Fall with no recourse. 
 
Zach and others have floated a theory that someone on the Biden team knew he would have a terrible debate and this was their way of swapping him out.  I don’t buy it.  His team actually thought that he would reassure voters – the internal gaslighting is strong.  Instead, the debate debacle will end with Joe stepping aside as the nominee while likely staying in office. 
 
So what next?  The major question is whom Joe decides to throw his weight behind.  The vast majority of DNC delegates are pledged to Joe and, though they aren’t obligated to do what he says, would be inclined to follow his lead.  I don’t think Vice President Harris will inherit the mantle unopposed, and we are in for a hurried mini-primary with various contenders raising their hand and being winnowed down via televised debates and votes/polling ahead of the convention.  The convention is in mid-August, so we are talking about perhaps the most action-packed 5 weeks that any of us can recall if this comes to pass.  The other most likely scenario is that Joe and the party consolidate behind Kamala to try and keep things together.  I’d prefer the mini-primary as I think it would energize people and be more open. 
 
It would be stressful and uncertain, but a sprint with any hope is vastly preferable to a futile death march, which is what President Biden now represents. 
 
The press is inflamed because they feel they were lied to by President Biden and his handlers about Joe’s condition and health.  It’s truly wild how every major Democrat had been parroting the “Joe’s sharp as a tack in meetings!” talking point until the debate laid the truth bare.  I appreciate Dean Phillips so much as the one Democratic officeholder willing to say that the emperor had no clothes on.  If only more had listened 6 months ago. 

I am sad for President Biden as anyone would be for an 81-year old who is losing his energy and clarity.  But we should be angry at the Democratic Party for enabling him for so long and putting us in position to give the reins of government back to Donald Trump. 
 
Buried among the headlines this week was a new Gallup poll that has Independents as a majority – 51% - of Americans for the first time in decades.  More and more of us have been staring at the dysfunction of our two major parties with chagrin.  Not coincidentally, Forward has received an influx of interest and support this week.  This 4th of July, let’s start declaring our independence from the two major parties that are clearly less concerned about us and more about who can avoid a race to the bottom and cling to power. 
 
You know who else has called for Joe Biden to step aside?  Adam Frisch, the Forward-endorsed Congressional candidate in Colorado.  See him and the other Forward-aligned candidates here.  John Curtis won his primary in Utah and John Avlon did the same in New York. 
 
Let’s hope a certain 81-year old officeholder makes the right decision soon.  Have a great Independence Day. 

The Debate

Well, many people’s worst fears were realized on Thursday, as President Biden had the most dismal and depressing performance in the history of presidential debates.

I had seen President Biden live in February. He did not look good. He was old and shuffling, his skin translucent. His delivery of remarks was uneven and performative – when he says something that is supposed to have emotion behind it but it seems like an old guy reading lines instead of genuine sentiment.

Still, I figured that his team had figured out a regimen to make him seem pumped up and energetic for 90 minutes – they seemed to have it pretty well managed for the State of the Union. I thought if they give him a week of rest and preparation Joe would probably be able to channel some of his vigor from his many debates of 2020, and he’d be genuinely fired up to debate Trump.

I was wrong. It was a doddering disaster.

One thing that was always in the back of my mind - a debate is a LOT harder than giving a speech off of a teleprompter.  You have to have command of the material and some messages memorized.  You have to project energy in response to your opponent and in some cases the moderators.  Let’s say I had you memorize a 60-second message to camera.  You’d have to be able to bust that out on command after 80 minutes of back and forth.  It’s a lot of cognitive loading. 

If someone asked me to give a good speech off of a teleprompter, I could do that with almost no notice.  If someone asked me to do a great job at a televised debate it would take some runway.  This was a much higher hurdle to clear than the State of the Union, and Joe Biden essentially faceplanted on the first lap.

So what happens now?

I’m clearly in the camp that Joe Biden should step aside and let the Democrats nominate someone else.  A ticket of well-liked governors would be a much tougher foil for Trump than Joe and Kamala at this point.  I got the hashtag #swapJoeout trending at one point.

The New York Times, the Atlantic, and even CNN have all piled on to make the same case.  It’s been a remarkable shift.  It’s tough to imagine a successful Democratic campaign that has lost the media to this degree.

But the Biden camp is digging in.  The flagship Democrats – Obama, Harris, Newsom, Clyburn, Jeffries, Schumer – are circling the wagons, at least publicly.  Donors are being managed and told to stay steady.  Biden is campaigning away to try to demonstrate vitality.  They have internalized the lesson – that has been true in the past – that if you hunker down you can weather any storm.  Each passing day gives them more distance from the debate. 

Still, behind the scenes some of the other candidates-in-waiting are staffing up and preparing. 

Most debates don’t change a race fundamentally.  This one is an exception – Americans saw firsthand that the President isn’t up to the job.  He is running an unwinnable race.  He is making the case that he is running to defend democracy, but then clinging to the office. 

Joe Biden’s superpower has been that he’s a good man who will do right by the country.  He is doing wrong by the country now.  The question is whether anyone around him will have the courage and moral clarity to save him, and the rest of us, from himself. 

If the debate made you wish for a new party in American politics, check out Forward – we are growing every day and got a lot of new recruits this week.  

What the People Know

“Americans are good when you meet with them face-to-face.” 
 
It’s true.  As you can imagine I’ve met thousands of Americans over the past five years criss-crossing the country, and can say with confidence that most Americans are good, generous, cordial people willing to give you and others the benefit of the doubt.  I’ve met any number of people who knew they disagreed with me politically – they were Trump supporters in Iowa for example – but were perfectly happy to ask a question or have a beer with me in a friendly manner. 
 
Things break down when you’re not face-to-face, and instead are interacting via cable news narratives or worse yet, social media.  I think of these platforms as a funhouse mirror that is refracting images of us to each other so we start to see caricatures on the other side instead of human beings. 
 
Unfortunately, these forces are now bleeding into reality.  Americans’ attitudes are becoming further entrenched, and the polarization is translating into both real relationships and actions. 
 
“I met a farmer who left the Republican Party in Ohio and all of his friends stopped talking to him,” said Frank Barry, the author of the new book “From Back Roads to Better Angels:  A Journey Into the Heart of American Democracy.”  Frank took his wife on a seven-month sojourn across the country in an RV hoping to glean a sense of what everyday Americans are thinking about the state of the union.  As you can imagine, it was a profound journey filled with insights from people of all walks of life all around the country. 
 
“Americans sense that we are becoming more divided, and they’re deeply concerned about it,” Frank relates.  “And it’s not just a perception, the divides are becoming more real.  When you ask them whether we will overcome our divides and come together, they say, ‘yes, we will.’  But they have no idea how or what to do.” 

This is pretty consistent with what I hear too.  Frank came back from his exploration both more optimistic and concerned.  Optimistic because, yes, Americans are good people when you sit with them one-on-one.  But very few have a sense of positive actions to take or a community to join, and more people are becoming subject to the forces that are driving us apart. 
 
In my fondest hopes, Forward becomes the answer to both of these questions.  Imagine if that farmer in Ohio had some new people to talk to, and people understood that if enough of us band together we can resist the forces of dehumanization and reform our institutions so that they aren’t rewarded for making us angry about our problems. 
 
It’s one of the strange facets of this time.  We are a good people.  Many of our leaders are actually well-intended.  Yet we are on a path that very few of us are happy about we can’t seem to change.  And there are billion-dollar organizations that are paving the road and profiting at every turn. 
 
Interestingly, one of the things that Frank believes is the answer to what ails us is non-partisan primaries and election reform.  “It’s one of the most direct ways to reduce polarization.”  It made me glad that a fellow traveler like Frank has arrived at the same conclusions.  I’ve spoken to more and more people lately who have woken up to the fact that political reform is the only way out. 
 
For my interview of Frank click here.  For his book click here.  To check out what Forward is doing, click here – John Avlon and John Curtis have their primaries on the 25th so let your friends in Long Island and Utah know! 

Where We Are

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great. 
 
If you haven’t seen it, I highly recommend Scott Galloway’s recent TED Talk, and not just because I make a couple cameos.  He hits on many themes of my presidential campaign concerning negative trends in the economy and our standard of living, particularly for young people.  I often said on the trail, “If you’re young you are entirely justified in being either angry or sad, because we have left you with a real mess and also the bill.” 
 
Things have gotten far worse for young people over the past five years, as our country has ramped up debt very significantly while making things like housing dramatically less affordable.  It’s one of the great megatrends in my thinking over the last five years. 
 
1.     Things are getting progressively worse for most Americans based on affordability, and that needs to change;
 
2.     Our institutions are designed to resist change in favor of the status quo that serves vested interests quite well; and
 
3.     We need to build a movement that changes the institutions or goes around them if we are going to change #1. 

During my presidential campaign we activated almost half a million donors and millions more who were eager to see something big change in favor of people.  You are probably among that number if you’re reading this – thank you!  Our campaign fell short, and now I’m grinding away at changing #2.  Someone said to me today, “I just figured out why you’re going so heavy on ranked choice voting, and I’m on board.” 
 
Every day, people come up to me and say “Run again!” in part because they are fed up by what we are getting.  At the same time, if I had run again in this context I would likely do more harm than good.  It’s one reason I was so glad to back Dean Phillips, who I saw as a responsible way to upgrade from a Biden versus Trump rematch and give us all a shot at a better future.  Watching the way the media and the Democrats sidelined Dean was a stark reminder of #2 above, despite the fact that Dean was clearly benevolent and a Democrat in good standing before he made the decision to put country ahead of party. 
 
Forward has now gotten behind candidates like John Avlon, John Curtis, Shelane Etchison and Adam Frisch, all of whom I’m very excited about.  There are also local candidates in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Florida and around the country.  I’m glad to do good where I can. 
 
But the backdrop of Scott’s talk and my presidential campaign was of a system that has gotten increasingly dysfunctional and punitive for the average American and young people in particular.  I was with Tim Ryan from Ohio last week, and he put it like this:  “If I lost my job at the plant or my town has been going downhill for years and you come and tell me GDP has had a good couple quarters, it doesn’t make me want to vote for you.”  Ohio of course has gone from a swing state to quite red in the past decade-plus. 
 
I think that Trump would make a disastrous President, much worse than he was last time.  I’m angry and sad that he may be on the verge of returning, in part because the Democrats have set the stage for it. 
 
What do you do in an age of declining institutions?  You take them over if you can, and build new ones as quickly as possible. 
 
To check out what Forward is doing including the candidates above, click here.  If you are in position to donate click here – we are very grateful for your support! 
 
For those of you who follow the podcast, we are doing a special Q&A episode – submit your question at mailbag@andrewyang.com and we will answer the good ones on air.  

My TED Talk is now up to 1.4 million views and counting - thanks for helping get it out there!  

The Future of RCV

A few years ago I was on a Zoom that would change my life.  I was meeting with several advocates for Ranked Choice Voting.  I asked them, “Who is the most prominent advocate for RCV?” 

They said two words that stunned me: “Probably you.” 

I wasn’t even an elected official.  But it dawned on me that it’s very difficult for someone who’s inside the system to champion a change that enables more competition and dynamism.  It’s not exactly the kind of thing most incumbents get excited about. 

I’ve been a fan of Ranked Choice Voting ever since I found out about it – but it has now become perhaps the most important change I think we can make, particularly when combined with non-partisan primaries.  It would make it so that our leaders actually have to listen to us and do right by us. 

Shortly after that Zoom I was asked to join the Board of FairVote Action by its founder and CEO, Rob Richie.  FairVote is a non-profit that enables and champions Ranked Choice Voting around the country.  It has helped 27 straight cities – including places like New York and Seattle – adopt Ranked Choice Voting over these past years. 

“People are catching on that these electoral reforms are crucial to achieving the future we want,” says Meredith Sumpter, the new CEO of FairVote whom I interview on the podcast this week.  Meredith grew up in Alaska stocking grocery shelves.  “I grew up in an environment where you just got things done and didn’t talk about who believed what.  I later went into business and worked as a diplomat, jumping back and forth between business and public service.  I’ve been running an inclusive capitalism organization for the past several years.  Everything kept leading me to systems change, which has now led me to FairVote.  Companies need government to be more effective in order to lead to a more inclusive economy, and Ranked Choice Voting is the reform that will make government more accountable and responsive.” 

Meredith arrived at FairVote while trying to make the economy more inclusive, but others I know arrived here because they cared about climate change or, in my case, poverty.  “It’s been awesome meeting movement partners these past two months,” says Meredith.  The FairVote gala in New York last week served as both a celebration of Rob Richie and Cynthia Terrell for their 32 years of work with FairVote as well as a passing of the torch to Meredith. 

“I feel like I’m arriving at the right time as the movement is just growing in momentum.  There’s a chance we triple the number of states who are using ranked choice voting statewide from 2 to 6 this November.  Nevada, Colorado, Idaho and Montana could all join Maine and Alaska.”  She’s right that this is a huge time for those of us who think that changing the way we vote is our best path forward.  Ranked Choice Voting is spreading faster than most realize.  Let’s continue to speed it up. 

For my interview with Meredith click here.  To check out FairVote, click here.  To join Forward which is backing RCV initiatives around the country, click here.  And for my TED Talk which now is up to 1.3 MM views and counting click here – people tell me it was an excellent explainer of Ranked Choice Voting and why it matters.  

Is Local News the Answer?

America is more polarized than ever – and one big reason why is that local newspapers have disappeared.  

Over 2,000 local papers have gone out of business in the last 15 years – thirteen hundred communities in the US now have no local news source at all.  Local papers tend(ed) to be much more straight-up-the-middle, as there aren’t that many ways to report on the bridge needing repair or how the local high school team is doing. 

As you can imagine I’ve interacted with hundreds of journalists over the past number of years, and I can say with confidence that local journalists are much less interested in trying to stick it to you and much more invested in getting the word out about something that might matter to the people in town.  As one reporter put it, “We report things responsibly because we are going to see the person the next day.”  I sat with dozens of editorial boards of papers in New Hampshire and Iowa.  Half of those papers are now closing or closed and over 30,000 local journalism jobs have disappeared over the past number of years.  

Fewer people run for office after a local paper goes down and the cost of municipal financing goes up – apparently you don’t care as much about the kind of deal you get if no one is reporting on it.  I spoke to a city councilman who saw a marked difference in the behavior at meetings when a reporter stopped coming; people started saying and doing things they never would have done with a reporter present.  The quality of government goes down.  

Also, it turns out that one’s media diet corresponds very strongly to, for example, one’s propensity to support Trump.  Trump is underwater with newspaper readers by a whopping 49 points while he’s up among social media users by 4 points, cable news watchers by 8 points and among YouTubers by 16.  Newspaper readers are more likely to have trust in institutions. 

There is a scrappy organization – the Rebuild Local News Coalition – that is trying to reverse the tide.  I spoke to its founder and President, Steve Waldman, on the podcast this week.  Steve and I have known each other for a while – we both went to Brown University and he started Report for America a number of years ago.  “There is growing momentum around supporting local papers from both sides of the aisle.  It turns out it’s a source of civic pride for most towns, the same way a sports team might be in another community.  And everyone loves small businesses.”  Steve notes that legislators at both the state levels and federally are now rallying around tax credits for both local papers and the small businesses that advertise in them. “Fixing this problem at the local level might cost $1 billion a year.”  

Steve notes that the big tech companies have a special responsibility as both beneficiaries of some of the content that these newspapers generate as well as the cause of their demise.  “It’s fair and reasonable to ask the biggest tech companies – the ones that have benefited the most from this new reality – to spend a tiny portion of their revenue to solve the significant problem they helped create.”  Steve sees more optimism around the Community News and Small Business Support Act than he’s seen in some time. 

The decimation of local papers is an underrated cause of the decline in our politics.  Could something as simple as having a reporter in your town show up to things and write them up in an objective way help restore our sense of trust?  I personally am convinced that many towns could support a local publication if it didn’t need to enjoy double-digit profit margins and a boffo growth rate.  Some things aren’t meant to be profit engines – but are still positives that lead to a better way of life.  Communities telling stories about themselves falls in that category. 

For my interview with Steve Waldman of the Rebuild Local News Coalition click here.  To see what Forward is doing in your state click here.  For more about the media landscape check out my book Forward which goes into its impact on polarization in some detail.  

My TED Talk is up to 1.2 million views – please do share it with anyone you think would enjoy it!