It’s DNC Week

Hello, I hope that your summer is ending on a high note. 

The DNC takes place this week in Chicago.  I expect the Dems to run a high-quality event, and the energy will be high. 

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have been enjoying a honeymoon period despite most voters having little sense of either of their bios or backgrounds.  Fleshing out who the candidates are will be a plus, as will the parade of Democratic dignitaries, from Joe Biden, the Obamas and the Clintons to up-and-comers like Wes Moore, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro.  

The Democrats have a raft of appealing figures and a rich heritage to draw on – note that at the Republican Convention there was no Bush or Romney hearkening back to fondly-remembered past administrations.  It was really the Trump show. 

4 years ago I spoke at the DNC, but it was a virtual event due to COVID and I beamed my remarks from a studio in Manhattan.  They approved my speech down to the word and timed it down to the second.  There were multiple reviewers.  Every speaking slot is highly in-demand and the planners want to dole them out only to the few who are integral to the message and story they want to put forward.  People imagine a raucous affair, but in contemporary politics it’s a tightly scripted and choreographed made-for-TV special.  Or at least that’s what the goal is, as in a live arena more spontaneity will emerge.

The main variable will be whether protestors make it into the broadcast – when I attended a Joe Biden speech in South Carolina earlier this year there were multiple protestors during his address.  Thousands of protestors are expected outside the Chicago convention hall at a site a half-mile away and 30 delegates are ‘uncommitted’ and thus natural protestors. One would think that it would be tough in this context to get tons more people inside the hall given heightened scrutiny of party delegates and attendees. But there will definitely be some protestors in the building. In South Carolina, pro-Biden chants quickly rose to up to drown out any protestors, and countermeasures will be robust. 

The second variable is whether the Dems decide to invite and include moderate Republicans and Independents in the primetime speaking slots.  In past conventions they included figures like Mike Bloomberg and John Kasich.  This year, the possibilities include folks like Mark Cuban, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger or Geoff Duncan, the former Lt. Gov. of Georgia who has endorsed Kamala Harris.  It would serve to broaden the anti-Trump coalition and I hope they do this, but they might not as the time slots are very coveted. 

The third thing to keep an eye out for is if someone emerges and creates buzz for the future with a particularly outstanding speech the way that Barack Obama did in 2004.  It hasn’t really happened since, but a half-dozen people will certainly try to make the most of the platform. 

The Democrats will put on a good show and the Harris-Walz ticket will, I expect, get a polling bump out of it.  The expectation is that afterwards the race will tighten and remain close throughout, with the next major catalyst on the schedule being the first presidential debate on September 10th.  The Harris campaign is also putting more policy meat on the bone out there and weighing taking unscripted interviews. 

Will the race follow its expected course?  In many ways, the goal of the DNC is to minimize any surprises.  But in this cycle, surprises may be par for the course.     

If you're not pumped about your choices, Forward is endorsing dozens of candidates around the country – check them out here and support them as one of them could represent you! Last week, I was asked to write an Op-Ed for Newsweek about the Democrats and democracy – you can read it here!

Defending Democracy

I was asked to write an Op-Ed for Newsweek about the Democrats and democracy.  Here's what I wrote — hope you enjoy it.

I Hope Harris Wins. But the Democrats Need to Answer for Their Failures to Protect Democracy

Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz have been enjoying a honeymoon period in the presidential race that I expect will last at least through the convention. Their rise has caught former President Trump and GOP VP Nominee JD Vance flatfooted.

I myself endorsed Kamala Harris shortly after Joe Biden stepped aside. I am someone who finds Donald Trump to have the wrong character and makeup to be President. I ran for the office four years ago in part to try and keep him from returning.

And yet Donald Trump may win in November. After all, he won in 2016 and was about 43,000 swing voters away from winning again in 2020.

For months I have been dreading Trump's return to power. Why? The Democratic nominee was Joe Biden, who I thought would obviously lose to Trump, handing him back the keys without a fight.

It's easily forgotten, but if not for the early debate on June 27th, Joe Biden would be the nominee right now, and we would all be subject to endless stories about how he's still got it or is as sharp as a tack, despite overwhelming evidence of his decline. If Trump had simply delayed the first debate until after the conventions, when they customarily take place, he would be on the fast track to the presidency today.

Democrats are fond of saying "Democracy is on the line" when they talk about Donald Trump. Trump denied he lost the 2020 election and hoped to overturn it via an angry mob. We can easily imagine him refusing to accept defeat in November. And yet Democrats were inches away from handing him back the reins of power because of an unwillingness to challenge Joe Biden, who was clearly too old and faltering to run for re-election.

I saw Joe Biden dozens of times on the trail four years ago. I was on stage with him for seven primary debates. Back then, he was aging but vital. I saw him earlier this year in South Carolina, and his decline was evident. He hardly seemed like the same person; the last four years have taken a significant toll, as they might for anyone in his early eighties with such a stressful, demanding role.

One sitting Democrat made the case that Joe Biden was too old and infirm in the primaries—Congressman Dean Phillips. Dean's reward? Ostracization by his own party. A primary challenger for his congressional seat backed by an establishment eager to punish him. A premature end to his political career. Dean Phillips demonstrated more principle, courage and heart than all of the putative leaders in his party who were at the time falling over themselves to bolster Joe and brand Dean an outcast, only for Dean's case to be proven right less than six months later.

If Democrats are serious about defending democracy, there are a number of things that they should commit to.

First, they should pledge to hold robust primaries no matter what. They did not this cycle, canceling state primaries without a single vote being cast and refusing to hold debates, with the logic being that Joe was an incumbent and incumbents shouldn't have challengers. That is asinine. If an incumbent can't easily dispatch challengers from within their own party, they are probably not going to fare well in November. We saw that very clearly this year. Imagine if Joe's decline had been evident back in January; there could have been a genuine process that would have introduced the nation to the next generation of leadership.

Second, they should stop boosting election deniers. The Democratic Party has been in the habit of spending millions boosting extreme candidates like Doug Mastriano and Joe Gibbs in Republican primaries so that they have easier opponents in the general election. This may seem like smart politics, but it is cynical and accelerates the general loss of faith and confidence in our institutions.

Third, they should stop fighting measures like open primaries and ranked choice voting that promise to make the system more dynamic. Open primaries in particular simply enable more voters to vote. Democrats spend millions of dollars against these measures every year across the country including for this November. Ranked choice voting gives people the chance to vote their true preferences.

Democracy does not mean, "you must vote for us." Democracy means listening to the people and giving them real voice and choice.

One proven means of combating polarization is local news. Over 3,000 local newspapers have gone out of business the past two decades, to be replaced by social media feeds and cable news. Democrats should be supporting the Community News and Small Business Support Act that provides a tax credit for local businesses and publications. If you read local news you're more likely to vote in local elections.

51 percent of Americans now self-categorize as Independents, according to Gallup, and an even higher proportion of young people don't subscribe to either party. There is a bill in Congress called the Fair Representation Act. It would shift congressional districts, which currently have one representative, to new, bigger districts that would have multiple representatives from different parties. Some would be neither Democrats nor Republicans. This would give rise to new voices in our country and make us more resilient to authoritarianism because there would be more seats at the table that are not beholden to the leadership of one party or the other.

You know what would attract droves of Independent voters? Term limits for members of Congress. 75 percent of Americans are for them as we sense that our leaders are more and more divorced from the day-to-day of their constituents. Banning stock trading for members falls into the same category.

If Kamala Harris and the Democrats are triumphant in November, there will likely be much celebration and self-congratulation. I certainly hope the Harris-Walz ticket wins. But will they actually replenish democracy? Or will they say, "See, we were right all along!"

If history is any indication, they'll fail to do much while in power to truly modernize our democracy. Getting term limits, multi-member districts, and ranked-choice voting ratified into law have failed again and again, even with Democrats in power.

If Democrats start standing up for democracy in action instead of rhetoric, the country will be far better off. If not, new characters will continue to push for change, and Democrats will find themselves increasingly at odds with the people they claim to represent.

The Human-Centered Economy

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great.  My kids don’t start school until Labor Day so we are milking the summer for all it can give.   

4 years ago I ran for President arguing for Universal Basic Income based on the idea that AI was coming and was going to do away with many American jobs. 

Today, AI is here and gathering steam, and is already displacing workers in different fields.  One joke going around is, “Why can’t AI do my dishes?”  Instead it’s consuming many cognitive tasks, from coding to writing to art and design to legal work.  Friends who are starting companies marvel at how they are hiring fewer people for roles that now get handled by software.  At the same time, friends who have started automation companies are seeing continuing growth and adoption. 

There are almost 2 million call center workers in the United States.  I believe most will eventually be replaced by AI.  That’s an obvious application, but many will be affected in more inobvious ways.  Perhaps relatedly, I’ve had multiple friends lose their jobs lately in finance, tech and media.  Most of these people were my age – in their 40s – and were on the pricier side.  Organizations will always look to do more with less, and some are presently pruning costs.   

The question is, what lies ahead for human workers? 

Here’s the core idea:  If the only measurements are cost and efficiency, more and more of us are going to lose to the machines.  AI will get smarter and faster in ways that we cannot. 

I think people are waking up to this.  4 years ago, people would sometimes talk about reskilling and being lifelong learners as if we can all scramble above the water line if only we’re a little more nimble.  Now, there’s a growing recognition that this is going to be unrealistic. 

I continue to hold that addressing poverty is the most direct and concrete way we can help people.  Humanity Forward is lobbying Congress for a revival of the enhanced child tax credit.  There is a ton of needless suffering and deprivation in this country and it is fueling our politics in dangerous ways. 

I would get asked this on the campaign trail several years ago, and I would sometimes describe how my wife Evelyn was at home with our children, one of whom is on the autism spectrum.  How much was her time and work valued at in our current marketplace?  The answer is “zero” even though we all know that her work might be some of the most important and valuable that a person can do. 

Imagine an economy where education and nurturing has its own value, along with arts and creativity and health and wellness.  I joke sometimes that we should probably be getting paid to go to the gym, because it’s great for society and saves us all money if we stay healthy. 

A multipolar economy is our way out of the grinding wheels of the machine – that we build an economy around human values and helping people live fruitful lives.  Our time is the most important resource we have to offer, independent of what the cost-based marketplace currently assigns us.  There can be more ways to both measure value and value our time. 

Last week on Freakonomics Radio I was asked what a human-centered economy could look like in practice.  I responded, “Let’s say I tutor your child at math.  That’s what I’m good at.  I get a 2-hour time credit for my work.  I then give it to someone else in return for their help cleaning my garage.  I’m not great at that.  That person then gives the time credit to someone else in return for a homecooked meal, which is also something I’m not good at.  Everyone has something that they can contribute.  If we start valuing and trading people’s time in new ways, we could enable a different sort of economy that works for many more of us.” 

This is not a new idea; Stephen Dubner of Freakonomics became interested in Timebanking when he read a book by Edgar Cahn called “No More Throw-away People.”  Edgar Cahn was Bobby Kennedy’s speechwriter in the 1960s, a time when the war on poverty was front and center.  Technology could enable time banking or trading in powerful new ways.  It’s also making the development of a human-centered economy all the more important. 

If we’re going to lose a race to the machines, perhaps we should change the racetrack and measurements to something we can win and be happy about.  How do we build an economy that works for people?  By seeing to it that there are ways to create meaning, purpose and value for as many as possible. 

My extended interview appears this week on the podcast and you can check out the Freakonomics interview here. If you’re interested in getting involved, send us an email to time@humanityforwardfoundation.org. 

I know that this may seem utopian to some of you reading this – and I don’t think that’s a bad thing.  The fact is that we’re going to veer toward either dystopia or utopia over time, and I’d vastly prefer the latter.  Which are we trending towards right now?  Someone’s got to paint the picture of abundance and possibility – it might as well be us. 

99 Days

Hello, hope that your summer is going well. 

It’s been 16 days since Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, 14 days since JD Vance was named the Republican running mate and 8 days since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.  Harris’s campaign has raised $200 million in that time, a whopping amount that has lifted her to financial parity and beyond.  That’s three major events in essentially the last two weeks, with some of them already feeling like a lifetime ago.    

Kamala Harris will name a VP any day now leading up to the Democratic National Convention on August 19th – 22nd.  At that point, there will be 75 days – about 11 weeks – until Election Day on November 5th, with many states allowing votes to be cast before then.  Trump recently cast doubt on whether he will make the next Presidential Debate scheduled for September 10th against Kamala Harris, saying he wanted to make sure she was actually the nominee.  Many debates don’t really impact a race, but this one definitely could.  Heck, the last one caused a nominee change. 

Some are proposing that Trump might swap JD Vance out as the press is enjoying airing out some of Vance’s more impolitic past statements.  I doubt Vance gets swapped out but it would be a way to get a press cycle and select someone who might actually put more voters at ease. 

It’s going to be an action-packed 3 months. 

Data is coming in on how Kamala Harris polls vs. Trump – keep in mind that she’s only been at it for a week and it takes 7-10 days to get decent polling in most cases.  Her approval rating is already sharply higher than it was a couple months ago by virtue of becoming the nominee.  However, in some polls so is Trump’s; perhaps because of surviving an assassination attempt, Trump is closer to 50% approval in some polls than he has been in years. 

National polling has Harris and Trump within a few points of each other with Harris rising – but that’s not indicative of who’s going to win the Electoral College.  The main question is what’s happening in the six swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – and whether Kamala causes any other states – primarily North Carolina – to become contestable.  Joe Biden’s stronghold was in the Midwestern ‘blue wall.’  He was the guy from Scranton, after all. 

Can Kamala make Arizona, Nevada and/or Georgia close enough to win?  And does she retain enough strength in the Midwest to close the deal in those states?  It’s one reason why her choice of running mate matters, as the three reported finalists – Shapiro, Kelly and Cooper hail from PA, AZ and NC.  

Given the rate of fundraising and the compressed time frame, the Harris campaign should already be ploughing its time and energy into the swing states.  The money will continue to come.  Figure out who can move the needle in the states that matter – including the candidate – and go door-to-door. 

I’m voting for Kamala and I hope she wins.  I think Trump’s a deeply flawed human who shouldn’t occupy the most powerful office in the land.  Campaigns tend to be won by whichever candidate peaks at the right time.  It’s certainly easy to imagine that Trump peaked too soon, while Kamala’s campaign is only getting started. 

If you’re looking for local candidates to support, check out the Forward-endorsed candidates here.  We are having a reunion picnic in LA on Sunday – join us if you are in town!  

Kamala Harris

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great. 
 
The Democrats have quickly coalesced around Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee.  I will be voting for her and her running mate this Fall.  I hope she wins. 
 
Those of you who know me know that I believe Trump to be a disastrous candidate who will accelerate the disintegration of what’s left of American institutional trust.  I know several people who worked for his first administration who resigned or were fired.  They testify to Trump’s malignant nature as a leader.  Many of them quietly scuttled Trump’s worst ideas so they never saw the light.  His 2nd administration would be much worse – it would be staffed with sycophants and toadies who will actually try to follow through on Trump’s lesser impulses.  I fear we would see abuses of power, political revenge and profiteering on a level we have never seen before with Trump back, buttressed by a Supreme Court ruling that makes every official act defensible. 
 
If you’ve seen Trump lately, he seems increasingly old and deranged.  That’s not the person you want in charge.  
 
I have had the grim sense that Trump would return to power for months, even years now.  Part of that was driven by my conviction that Joe Biden was a weak, unpopular, aging incumbent.  I was incredibly frustrated that Biden and the Democrats were going to essentially serve the country back to Trump on a silver platter without much of a fight. 
 
Joe Biden stepping aside has changed that.  Thanks Joe! 

Kamala Harris has given the Democrats a new lease on life.  She and her campaign have raised over $100 million in the first several days from hundreds of thousands of donors.  Volunteers are signing up in droves.  Kamala seems energized and so do voters and surrogates who were in despair just last week.  The sense of inevitability that has accompanied Donald Trump has now lifted. 
 
Can Kamala Harris win in November? 
 
Her campaign is off to a phenomenal start.  I think she’ll win the popular vote.  But the road ahead remains fraught.  The Democrats’ path to victory runs through six states:  Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.  The Dems would like to include North Carolina on that list; the Republicans would like to include Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire.  But it’s really just the core six swing states. 

Before Kamala Harris became the candidate, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia had all drifted toward Trump, leaving Dems with the narrow path of winning all of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  Trump is now spending $100 million in those three states to define Kamala negatively.  Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, is a top choice to be Kamala’s running mate in part because he would help a lot in PA – he’s very popular there.  I like that choice.  Mark Kelly would have a similar, if lesser, impact in Arizona. 
 
Normally, VP picks don’t matter all that much.  But in this race everything could matter because it will likely be decided by a relative handful of voters in a few states. 
 
On that front, Trump is likely regretting his pick of JD Vance, who doesn’t bring a lot to the table electorally and may make things worse at the margins.  Vance is the rare kind of politician who seems to court hostility, minus the celebrity status to make it okay.    
 
Kamala needs to simultaneously turnout Democratic base voters and win over wavering swing voters in the Midwest and the sunbelt who don’t like Trump.  She remains undefined in the minds of many voters.  It’s a sprint.  Her path is narrow.  But there is a path, which is something I could not have said only days ago. 
 
It’s the best chance we have to fend off Trump.  I hope the country takes it. 
 
If you want better choices, we do too!  Forward is backing good local candidates around the country and is growing all of the time.  Check us out here.  And if you're in LA we are having a picnic on August 4th!

Joe Biden is Out – What’s Next?

Joe Biden did the right thing for the country on Sunday and dropped out of the presidential race.  We should all be grateful.  It was an admirable thing to do. 
 
Joe quickly turned around and endorsed Kamala Harris as the new nominee, and the campaign has already rebranded as “Harris for President.”  Kamala announced her intent to win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention that begins on August 19th.  A small legion of Democrats immediately endorsed her.

Technically, the roughly 4,000 DNC delegates can choose whomever they want as the new nominee.  However, having been pledged to Joe Biden they are likely to adhere to his wishes.  And the past several weeks have drained many Democrats of their desire to hold a competitive mini-primary.  If Joe had dropped out 10 days earlier or so, it might have seemed more enticing. 
 
I think a mini-primary would be the best path forward for multiple reasons.  First, the nominee needs vetting.  You want to put forth the strongest possible candidate.  Second, it would get massive levels of attention for the new generation; who wouldn’t tune in to see who the Dems put forth?  Third, I think pulling the party together afterwards against Trump would be very easy and straightforward.  If your problem has been the anointment of Joe Biden, try to learn from that and avoid repeating the same mistake.

The problem is that other candidates are looking at this situation and clearing the path for Kamala.  Their calculation is this: do I run against the sitting Vice President backed by the President in a compressed time frame and get accused of trying to elbow aside the logical next person up?  Or do I sit this one out, maybe get into the Veepstakes for Kamala and bide my time until 2028?  Most are quickly choosing the latter. 
 
Barack Obama notably recommended a more robust and open process.  But his voice has been outweighed by others who are trying to push for quickly coalescing around Kamala.  Look for a constant stream of Kamala endorsements from delegates and superdelegates in the coming days, making a challenge to her all-the-more daunting. 
 
Here’s the fundamental problem:  I don’t believe Kamala Harris is the strongest candidate against Donald Trump.
 
Kamala has consistently polled as quite unpopular and has some of the disadvantages of incumbency – she can still be blamed for whatever people haven’t liked about the last several years.  Her previous presidential campaign in 2019 underperformed. 
 
When I’ve been asked over the past number of weeks who I thought might be the strongest candidates, I suggested a Gretchen Whitmer – Josh Shapiro ticket that would likely net the Democrats both Michigan and Pennsylvania.  I also think that Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Wes Moore and others would perform quite well.  You could put another half-dozen or so names in here and I wouldn’t disagree, nor would polling.  My instinct has been that the country wants someone new and would vote accordingly. 
 
Kamala Harris at 59 is a vastly better bet than Joe Biden at 81.  I’m glad it’s not Joe.  But if you’re going to go through the trouble of removing your nominee, you should go all the way and try to give yourself the best possible chance of victory.  Isn’t that the point?   
 
Forward is endorsing candidates around the country – check them out here!  Let’s build the Party of the Future that we clearly need.

JD Vance

Yesterday Donald Trump selected JD Vance, the Ohio Senator, as his running mate. 

I got a sinking feeling when I heard the news. 

There were others whom Trump could have chosen for different reasons. 

Doug Burgum would have been a steady business hand with massive resources.  Glenn Youngkin would have reassured moderates and corporate donors.  Nikki Haley would have done the same and appealed to women.  Marco Rubio would have held demographic appeal and foreign policy chops. 

JD Vance is a different kind of choice as a governing partner and now heir apparent to the MAGA movement.  He doesn’t have massive stature on Capitol Hill – his legislation has generally not gone anywhere.  He doesn’t add that much electoral appeal; Vance underperformed in Ohio which isn’t a swing state anyway.  He’s disliked by many.  He’s not the fundraising magnet that some others are. 

What he does have is an actual perspective and thoughts.  He’s a hard right populist who went to Yale Law.  Among his stances: 

• He wouldn’t have certified the 2020 election. 

• “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” 

• “If you wanted to kill a bunch of MAGA voters in the middle of the heartland, how better than to target them and their kids with this deadly fentanyl... it does look intentional.  It’s like Joe Biden wants to punish the people who didn’t vote for him.” 

• “Culture war is class war.”

• “We are in a late republican period... If we’re going to push back against it, we’re going to have to get pretty wild, and pretty far out there, and go in directions that a lot of conservatives right now are uncomfortable with.” 

JD Vance is an alienated darling of the center-left establishment from his time as author of “Hillbilly Elegy.”  He began as an institutionalist, starting a venture capital firm and non-profit to help kids in Ohio, and then quickly ditched them to pursue political power in a red state.  He’s a never Trumper turned ultimate always Trumper.  He won his primary with only 32% of the vote thanks to Trump’s endorsement. 

He’s 39 years old and has a deep relationship with Donald Trump Jr.  He’s going to be with us a long time. 

This is the kind of VP pick you make if you think you’re already going to win and want to inhabit the movement with a philosophy and next-generation leader.  For those who hoped that MAGA would fade when Trump passed from the scene, those hopes are going to be futile.  If they win in November, Trump has ensured a long-term transformation of the Republican Party in his image.  His kids might not have been up for it, but JD Vance is.  Trump’s movement will outlive him. 

If you want to build a new movement to bring the country together, please check out Forward – we are growing quickly.  If you want to encourage the Dems to move on from Joe Biden, go to passthetorchbiden.com.  The margin of victory or defeat will matter.  

The Trump Assassination Attempt

These are dark and difficult times in America. 

On Saturday, Donald Trump narrowly avoided an assassination attempt from an unhinged 20-year old man at a rally in Pennsylvania.  An innocent bystander was killed and others wounded. 

I was stunned and shocked by the news. 

I’m glad Trump survived and will by all accounts make a full recovery.  Political violence has no place in America, and I unequivocally condemn it.  We should be able to disagree without descending into hatred. 

Hundreds of friends reached out to me concerned and saddened for what this means for our country. 

We are no strangers to political violence in the United States.  In the turbulent 1960s, JFK, Malcolm X, Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy were all assassinated in the space of 5 years.  I fear that we are heading back in that direction.

Political polarization has been rising for decades, and a rise in political violence accompanies declining democracies, which is what we now are.  Scholars like Barbara Walter in “How Civil Wars Start” and Stephen Marche in “The Next Civil War” have been projecting this for quite some time.

In “The War on Normal People” I wrote:

“There are about 300 million firearms in the United States, almost one for every man, woman and child.  Disintegration is unlikely to be gentle.”  The shooter was a troubled young man, of which we are not in short supply.

I feel awful for our country that we are here now.

There is a natural impulse to rally around the flag.  Donald Trump was the favorite to win in November before this assassination attempt; that dynamic is even stronger now.

His supporters are enraged at this attempt and many blame the overheated rhetoric in our political landscape.  They’re not wrong.  The truth is that both sides routinely run down the other side in language that incites hostility and contempt.  I wish it would stop.

After each event like this, there are those who appeal to cool down the temperature before returning to their partisan habits mere days later.  Our muscle memory of tribalism is growing stronger and our institutions weaker. 

History is slipping in the wrong direction.  An innocent bystander was killed on Saturday.  I fear he won’t be the last.

To help ease our polarization, check out Forward today.  We need more than two sides.  

Pass the Torch

“81-year-old man holds nation hostage – film at 11.” 

It has been 10 days since Joe Biden’s disastrous debate.  8 days later he sat for a 22-minute interview with George Stephanopoulos that didn’t convince anyone of anything but perhaps the President’s obstinacy and disdain for polls. 

I think this is Joe Biden’s final week as the Democratic nominee.  Today, Congress returns to session and dozens of swing state legislators will convene to determine how they can best keep their jobs and get Joe Biden off of the top of the ticket.  I personally spoke to at least one more member who is going to call on Joe to step down in the coming days.  Respected Senator Mark Warner is assembling a mutiny among Senators.  More and more donors go public each day.   

The boat is springing leaks more quickly than the Biden team can patch them – and no one is scared of retribution anymore.  For the swing state legislators, what frightens them is being part of a blowout in November.   

A journalist compared the fissure between what Democrats are saying in public and what they are saying in private to the behavior of Republicans under Trump – they would bemoan his venality and then pledge allegiance as soon as a camera went on.  Joe isn’t Trump and it's age not morality, but the pattern remains. 

The same journalist observed that it is only the timidity of the Democrats that gives Joe any hope, and that if they did start speaking their mind it would be clear that Joe has lost his party.  

There are things we can do.  Let your local legislator know you feel that Joe Biden should step aside.  Friends of mine have helped to organize a petition - Pass the Torch, Joe – that I have signed.  I’d encourage you to do so as well and spread the word.  Let's get #passthetorch to be the phrase on everyone's lips.  

There is still time to swap Joe out, get behind a new nominee and defeat Trump in November.  Joe Biden said that he’d step aside if the Lord Almighty asked him to do so.  Well, the Lord might not be available, so we will have to do.  

Looking forward to a new nominee,

Independence Day

Happy 4th of July!  I hope that you are spending the holiday with family and friends. 

What a time in America.  Every day comes with new figures calling for President Biden to step aside as the Democratic nominee. 
 
I said on the podcast Monday with Zach that I believe Joe Biden will indeed step aside.  And I think it will happen fairly quickly.  The first Democratic member of Congress, Lloyd Doggett of Texas, has called for it and I don’t detect any professional repercussions.  Dozens of swing-state officeholders are poised to follow him.  The tone of Jim Clyburn, Nancy Pelosi and others has shifted from their earlier declarations of support to allowing for a mini-primary if Joe isn’t the nominee and saying concerns are legitimate.
 
Watching the press jump on this like a dog tearing at a bone has been fascinating.  I have gotten requests from a dozen outlets.  We should thank our lucky stars that Joe Biden’s team called for this early debate ahead of the convention, else there would have been a tank job in the Fall with no recourse. 
 
Zach and others have floated a theory that someone on the Biden team knew he would have a terrible debate and this was their way of swapping him out.  I don’t buy it.  His team actually thought that he would reassure voters – the internal gaslighting is strong.  Instead, the debate debacle will end with Joe stepping aside as the nominee while likely staying in office. 
 
So what next?  The major question is whom Joe decides to throw his weight behind.  The vast majority of DNC delegates are pledged to Joe and, though they aren’t obligated to do what he says, would be inclined to follow his lead.  I don’t think Vice President Harris will inherit the mantle unopposed, and we are in for a hurried mini-primary with various contenders raising their hand and being winnowed down via televised debates and votes/polling ahead of the convention.  The convention is in mid-August, so we are talking about perhaps the most action-packed 5 weeks that any of us can recall if this comes to pass.  The other most likely scenario is that Joe and the party consolidate behind Kamala to try and keep things together.  I’d prefer the mini-primary as I think it would energize people and be more open. 
 
It would be stressful and uncertain, but a sprint with any hope is vastly preferable to a futile death march, which is what President Biden now represents. 
 
The press is inflamed because they feel they were lied to by President Biden and his handlers about Joe’s condition and health.  It’s truly wild how every major Democrat had been parroting the “Joe’s sharp as a tack in meetings!” talking point until the debate laid the truth bare.  I appreciate Dean Phillips so much as the one Democratic officeholder willing to say that the emperor had no clothes on.  If only more had listened 6 months ago. 

I am sad for President Biden as anyone would be for an 81-year old who is losing his energy and clarity.  But we should be angry at the Democratic Party for enabling him for so long and putting us in position to give the reins of government back to Donald Trump. 
 
Buried among the headlines this week was a new Gallup poll that has Independents as a majority – 51% - of Americans for the first time in decades.  More and more of us have been staring at the dysfunction of our two major parties with chagrin.  Not coincidentally, Forward has received an influx of interest and support this week.  This 4th of July, let’s start declaring our independence from the two major parties that are clearly less concerned about us and more about who can avoid a race to the bottom and cling to power. 
 
You know who else has called for Joe Biden to step aside?  Adam Frisch, the Forward-endorsed Congressional candidate in Colorado.  See him and the other Forward-aligned candidates here.  John Curtis won his primary in Utah and John Avlon did the same in New York. 
 
Let’s hope a certain 81-year old officeholder makes the right decision soon.  Have a great Independence Day.