The data are clear: The boys are not all right

This op-ed ran in the Washington Post on 2/8/22.

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Here is one of the biggest problems facing America: Boys and men across all regions and ethnic groups have been failing, both absolutely and relatively, for years. This is catastrophic for our country.

The data are clear. Boys are more than twice as likely as girls to be diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; are five times as likely to spend time in juvenile detention; and are less likely to finish high school.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t get better when boys become adults. Men now make up only 40.5 percent of college students. Male community college enrollment declined by 14.7 percent in 2020 alone, compared with 6.8 percent for women. Median wages for men have declined since 1990 in real terms. Roughly one-third of men are either unemployed or out of the workforce. More U.S. men ages 18 to 34 are now living with their parents than with romantic partners.

Economic transformation has been a big contributor. More than two-thirds of manufacturing workers are men; the sector has lost more than 5 million jobs since 2000. That’s a lot of unemployed men. Not just coincidentally, “deaths of despair” — those caused by suicide, overdose and alcoholism — have surged to unprecedented levels among middle-aged men over the past 20 years.

Research shows that one significant factor women look for in a partner is a steady job. As men’s unemployment rises, their romantic prospects decline. Unsurprisingly, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from 1960 to 2010, the proportion of adults without a college degree who marry plummeted from just over 70 percent to roughly 45 percent.

Many boys are thus often growing up raised by single mothers, the share more than doubling between 1980 and 2019, from 18 percent to 40 percent. A study from 2015 found that “as more boys grow up without their father in the home, and as women … are viewed as the more stable achievers, boys and girls alike [may] come to see males as having a lower achievement orientation. … College becomes something that many girls, but only some boys, do.”

Yes, men have long had societal advantages over women and in some ways continue to be treated favorably. But male achievement — alongside that of women — is a condition for a healthy society. And male failure begets male failure, to society’s detriment. Our media, institutions and public leadership have failed to address this crisis, framing boys and men as the problem themselves rather than as people requiring help.

This needs to change. Helping boys and men succeed should be a priority for all our society’s institutions. Schools that have succeeded in keeping boys on track should be expanded, by both increasing the number of students they serve and exporting their methods to other schools. Vocational education and opportunities should be redoubled; the nation’s public school system should start the process for early age groups, and apprenticeship programs should be supported by the federal government. Nonprofits helping boys and men — such as Big Brothers Big Sisters of America and the YMCA — should receive more investment.

Resources that keep families together when they want to stay together, such as marriage counseling, should be subsidized by the government — a much more cost-efficient approach than dealing with the downstream effects. The enhanced child tax credit should be renewed, helping stabilize families.

Drives for national service and contribution, such as an American Exchange Program or national service years, should be resuscitated. And businesses and industries that employ large numbers of men, such as manufacturing, should be invested in and reinvigorated.

On a cultural level, we must stop defining masculinity as necessarily toxic and start promoting positive masculinity. Strong, healthy, fulfilled men are more likely to treat women well.

The above is, of course, a prodigious undertaking. But I see the need around me all the time.

A number of my friends have become detached from society. Everyone hits a snag at some point — losing a job, facing a divorce — but my male friends seem less able to bounce back. Male dysfunction tends to take on an air of nihilism and dropping out. As a society, we don’t provide many avenues for healthy recovery.

Here’s the simple truth I’ve heard from many men: We need to be needed. We imagine ourselves as builders, soldiers, workers, brothers — part of something bigger than ourselves. We deal with idleness terribly.

“A man … with no means of filling up time,” George Orwell wrote, is “as miserable out of work as a dog on the chain.” Left to our own devices, many of us will fail. And from our failure, terrible things result for the country, well beyond any individual self-destruction.

The Meaning of Life

Hello, I hope you are doing great! 

I had the pleasure of sitting down with Arthur Brooks this week.  Arthur is a Harvard professor and author of the popular Atlantic column “How to Build a Life.”  His new book is entitled “From Strength to Strength: Finding Success, Happiness, and Deep Purpose in the Second Half of Life.” 
 

Arthur has spent years studying what makes us happy.  His book is fascinating. He posits how most of us start to slow down professionally, typically in our 40s and 50s.  Our fluid intelligence – processing speed – dulls.  We push harder and harder and get frustrated that we aren’t quite as fast and productive.  At the same time, our successes have diminishing returns on our emotional state.  He describes an incredibly accomplished man in the twilight of his life who is miserable and feels like a complete failure. 
 

But there’s a second intelligence curve that grows as the other diminishes – crystallized intelligence.  It’s when you can take different data points and put them together into a picture and then convey it simply to others.  It makes one a better coach, or mentor, or teacher. Some might call it wisdom.  That curve goes up as fluid intelligence goes down.  
 

Arthur advises finding a way to get on this different curve.  He took his own advice, becoming a professor and author and stepping away from running a very prestigious thinktank in D.C. 
 

What makes people happy as they age?  Relationships and feeling useful.  The most important things are real friendships and close family relationships.  Real friendships are those that are intrinsic – no value changes hands except for the friendship itself. 
 

There's a lot more.  I read Arthur’s book with great interest.  I just turned 47.  I’ve made a few major professional switches myself.  Unhappy attorney, failed entrepreneur, startup CEO, nonprofit founder, presidential candidate, political figure, etc.  I pride myself in being able to shift gears.  
 

At the same time, as one’s responsibilities grow, making a change is that much harder.  And I sometimes have found myself too tired to be truly present for friends and even family this past number of years.  With each example, I’ve thought, “Well, this will pass after the campaign is over.”  But there is always another figurative campaign or urgent project or timeline.   
 

Arthur’s book closes with some word to live by: 

Use things.

Love people.

Worship the divine. 

He says that we often mess up the order into:

Use people.

Love things.

Worship ourselves. 

He also believes that politics has taken the place of the divine or spiritual for far too many Americans who are looking for meaning.  It's one thing that's driving polarization.   
 

One of his findings is that people often either discover or rediscover their relationship with God or spirituality as they age.  This happened with his wife who re-engaged with her own faith.  This was news to me, but it makes sense.  Religion has taken on a bigger role in my life now that I have a family.  And as you get older, the meaning of life adopts a different type of urgency. 
 

I found Arthur to be a very wise man.  There's much more to his point-of-view.  Check out my interview with him here and you can buy his latest book here. 
 

I try to take action when I learn something new.  My immediate adjustment in seeking the meaning of life?  Call my Mom more often.  

Quentin Palfrey

Hello Massachusetts! It was always a blast campaigning in MA these past years.

One reason I enjoyed my visits is that I would stop by and see my high school classmate Quentin Palfrey, who is now running for Attorney General in MA! He just announced today. Quentin is exactly the kind of person you hope runs for office: smart, principled, high-integrity, and motivated solely by a spirit of service. I’ve known Quentin for over 30 years and he has been the same person the entire time. He was kind of straight-laced as a teenager.

You know your friend who started the tutoring service for underprivileged kids? That was Quentin. He was also very proud of where he grew up.

Today, he’s the father to three lovely young kids. It’s a very busy household. Quentin has been Assistant District Attorney in MA, an official in both the Obama and Biden administrations, and a non-profit founder. The entire time he’s been trying to have as positive impact as he can, either in Massachusetts or for the entire country.

I’m supporting his run for Attorney General and I hope that you consider doing the same. You can check out his launch video here and also donate and volunteer. I promise you that Quentin is the real deal. Imagine having an Attorney General who wakes up every day looking to do as much good as possible. With your help, that will happen in MA when Quentin wins later this year! Let's make it happen!

Your excited out-of-stater,

- Andrew

I feel so strongly about this that I’ll be headlining an event for Quentin in the coming days so keep an eye out!

The Next Civil War

Happy Chinese New Year! I hope you celebrate the same way Evelyn and I did – a delicious night out with family and friends at a local restaurant.

This week on the podcast I interviewed Stephen Marche, the author of the fascinating and painstakingly well-researched “The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future.” Stephen started his book after attending the Trump inauguration. As you likely know, the subject matter is near and dear to my heart.

I’ve been concerned about political unrest and societal disintegration wrought in part by the polarization of America for years. Stephen puts a firmer stance behind it – “It’s a matter of how it happens, not whether it happens.”

First the numbers. Stephen uses a definition from the Peace Research Institute Oslo that a Civil War has broken out when there are 1,000 political combatant deaths per year. Have their been deaths born of political violence in the U.S, these past years? It turns out domestic anti-government extremists in the US killed between 37 and 72 people per year from 2015 – 2019, before the January 6th insurrection. So we are about 3-7% of the way to Civil War right now. Incidentally, 25+ deaths per year from political violence is categorized as ‘civil strife.’

Stephen categorizes the United States as being particularly prone to political unrest as an ‘anocracy,’ which is defined as a semi-democracy or a regime that mixes democratic and autocratic features. “True democracies don’t have revolutions. Neither do autocracies, which suppress them. But America right now is in a middle ground, neither truly democratic or autocratic.”

This definition may seem extreme to you – is the U.S. not the world’s most storied democracy? Unfortunately our democracy is rife with problems that more and more Americans are waking up to: a two-party system that locks out different points of view with both parties awash in special interest money. 85% of Congressional districts are safely blue or red and are effectively decided by 10% of voters, further stifling the will of the vast majority. Polarized media organizations trumpet different versions of reality separating people into tribal camps. One reason so many people are now concerned about a possible shift to authoritarianism is that our two-party system is uniquely vulnerable to it in a way that other nations’ more representative systems are not. The Forward Party is geared to help change that.

How does Stephen imagine Civil War being catalyzed? He paints a detailed set of scenarios, all of which are plausible because they are based on things that have either happened already in some form or experts expect to happen soon. U.S. armed forces taking up arms against anti-government militias on American soil. Lone wolves radicalized into teenage assassins. Social order swamped by the ravages of climate change. Secessionist movements moving from the margins into the mainstream. Indeed, Stephen wrote a chapter on a January 6th-type insurrection before it happened, thus requiring significant edits to the book.

Some of you read my book ‘The War on Normal People’ which painted a picture of a decaying society torn apart by technological automation and economic marginalization. “The Next Civil War” is in many ways a portrait of how this process could play out politically. I think that we will experience some version of the near future that Stephen presents – the question is how will our institutions respond, and is the American political system itself capable of evolving? We will certainly become either much more autocratic or democratic in the coming months – millions of us would vastly prefer the latter. We need to make the case to our fellow Americans that a genuinely multi-party system and more real representation is the necessary antidote to polarization and Civil War.
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- Andrew

2024 – Trump vs. the Field

Greetings from Houston, where I gave a talk last night for the Forward Tour! We had a phenomenal time. Being out and about made me excited about my next trip.

This past week I sat down with Marianne Williamson, a friend from the trail. She talked about the Democratic Party, third parties, 2024 and much more. You can see the conversation here.

My conversation with Marianne helped shift my thinking. For a while now I’ve been projecting a Trump vs. Biden rematch in 2024. Now I believe it’s going to be Trump vs. the Field.

Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican Party is as strong now as it was several months ago – perhaps stronger given that time has passed and no new rival has emerged. He held his first major rally in Arizona last week and was clearly testing out attack lines for 2024. His campaign machine is already running to the tune of well over $100 million. Some of his potential rivals are bending the knee and saying they won’t run against him. I believe his strongest opponent will be Larry Hogan, the governor of Maryland who is term-limited. Right now the heavy favorite is Trump.

On the other side, I used to think it was going to be Biden because he’s the incumbent who beat Trump and the Democrats would want to avoid a fractious primary. But there have been a few developments that have changed my mind. First, Joe’s weakness has continued – his approval is mired in the low 40s, even in the 30s by some polling. Stacey Abrams declining to show up to a voting rights event in Georgia with Joe struck me as shocking. Build Back Better has stalled. His address on the filibuster was pre-empted by Kyrsten Sinema and the Senate was all sent home after being told they’d be working on election legislation all weekend. Deference to Joe is dissipating.

Second, there has been increasing unease from large DNC donors. One donor told me that several funders were openly talking about sitting out the next cycle until they knew what/who they were backing. Another suggested that donors were trying to figure out who to coalesce around as a new candidate in 2024. If donors are talking this way, they certainly have multiple candidates-in-waiting who are thinking this way.

Third, I’ve now heard from at least a couple people who are considering mounting a challenge. Nature abhors a vacuum. So does politics. As the sense deepens that Joe may not run for a 2nd term, people are beginning to prepare their own runs for 2024.

I thought that we’d have until the midterms in November. But now I think it’s going to get pushed up to earlier in the year, in part because Trump is so clearly the Republican frontrunner.

When I ran for President in 2020, Democratic Primary voters had one threshold question for candidates – “Who can beat Donald Trump?” It was the central question, and it was why Joe Biden became the nominee.

It seems that voters will be asking themselves that question again, and trying to figure out if Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren or someone else from among a host of new candidates (e.g., Kyrsten Sinema, JB Pritzker) can convincingly answer “I can.” Keep an eye on JB Pritzker as one of the only mainstream Dems who can self-finance.

I also believe there will be at least one 3rd party candidate who declares in 2022, in part because of Joe’s weakness, a desire for an alternative to Trump and the hazy Democratic field.

Joe Biden emerged from a scrum of a race to take on Trump. It feels like yesterday. But the next scrum will be here before we know it.

Today is my Birthday!

Hello all,

Thank you for your support. Today is my birthday.

When I told someone that I was turning 47 today they said, “Whoa, that’s older than I thought you were!” I took it as a compliment.

When I was a kid I did not like my birthdays at all. I didn’t have many friends – I was shy and bookish. My Mom would try and do something for my birthday, like bring me a cake, but it always felt like our little celebration fell short. I still definitely appreciate my Mom for trying.

This sense of deficiency was heightened by the fact that my older brother was more social and seemed to have better parties.

As an adult I became comfortable either ignoring it or having a celebration I’d enjoy. I got friends together for my 30th and 40th.

In 2020, I celebrated my birthday with hundreds of people in Iowa while campaigning for President. What a contrast with my childhood.

This year, in 2022, I’ll be celebrating quietly with my family. Part of that is covid but part of it is by design; I am out and about so much now that a quiet night with Evelyn and the boys seems like the right way to mark the occasion.

I’m so fortunate to be able to celebrate my birthday today with my family but also with so many people sending well-wishes from around the world – thank you!

To the extent you’d like to help me celebrate, please do something kind for someone in your life. That would make me happy.

If you’d like, you can also make a donation to the Forward Party. That would mean a lot to me! We are making amazing progress each day. It’s not every day that you kick off a new political movement.

I’m excited for what the year will bring. Who knows, maybe by next year the pandemic will be over! But in any case, I’ll be doing my best to appreciate every day from now until then, and I hope you will too.

Yours gratefully,

- Andrew

P.S. Today's new podcast episode with Zach is out, we discuss Bernie's treatment by the DNC, school closures, and our experiences with identity. It's one of our best convos - you can check it out here.

3 Predictions for 2022

Hello and Happy 2022! I hope the New Year is off to a great start!

This week on the podcast I make a few predictions for 2022. You can listen to an extended convo with Zach about them here.

The first is that I believe inflation will persist well into the New Year. There are a few reasons for this. First, people in industry are making pricing decisions on a bit of a lag, and some of those decisions are only just now incorporating higher prices for supplies and the like. Second, the environment is now less punitive for price increases, as if other firms in your industry are raising prices you can do so too with limited pushback from customers. Third, a lot of businesses are seeing higher labor costs, which they will want to pass along.

This will likely mean inflation sticks around in significant measure and puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates – which have been aberrantly low for over a decade now. This in turn could have negative repercussions for the stock market. We are now in something of a supercycle – 13 years and counting – that is closer to the end than the beginning.

I’ve been calling this environment “Growflation” – as you will see some continued economic growth hand-in-hand with inflation. I don’t believe the inflation we are seeing is transitory or will pass quickly.

My second prediction is going to sound like a cheat – a 3rd party contender for the presidency will announce their bid this year.

4 years ago, I announced I was running for President. I figured that I could use the time to get my name and message out. There was no purpose in waiting. It turns out that the energy and interest in a presidential run is pretty low more than 2 years in advance. But it likely was the right move because we learned a lot and developed the beginning of a following throughout the year. It’s somewhat easier to campaign in a vacuum.

I believe that someone else will have the same consideration set and get a jump on it, particularly if they don’t currently hold elected office. The most likely major party nominees right now are set to be Biden and Trump, both of whom have 50%+ of Americans against their runs, so there will be real interest in a different figure and voice.

Relatedly, the energy around 2024 will surge after the mid-terms in November, so enjoy the year while you can.

My third prediction is that this will be the final year of the pandemic. I know. It’s hard to envision given that omicron right now is sweeping the nation.

Here’s why. The average duration of a pandemic is three years. It’s tough to fathom, but we are about to begin our third year of Covid. If this pandemic holds to form this will be the final year.

Omicron right now is showing signs of being a highly contagious but milder variant. This suggests that most everyone will be exposed over time, which will lead to herd immunity.

Finally, the public attitude toward the pandemic is exhaustion. Most people are at their wit’s end and will have little appetite for anything other than personal common sense measures beyond this year.

So there you have it: Inflation, a 3rd party candidate and an end to the pandemic. If you want to hear Zach’s predictions and more on mine, you can check out the podcast here.

Happy 2022 – let’s make it a year to remember!!

- Andrew

The Next January 6th

Photo courtesy of Blink O'fanaye

A year ago today, our country was shocked and horrified by the insurrection attempt on our nation’s Capitol.  The scenes were unthinkable – crowds surging through doors and windows looking for legislators with violent, deadly, intent.  

I have friends among those members of Congress, some of whom I texted.  One texted me back one word:  “Terrifying.”  At least five people died in connection with the insurrection and dozens of police officers were injured.  Four officers took their own lives in the months afterwards. As bad as it was, it could have been far worse if not for the heroism of Eugene Goodman and other Capitol officers. 

There was a brief moment afterwards when it seemed that our political leaders would coalesce in response to the horror.  But the polarization is too deep.  Only a bare handful of Republicans voted to impeach Donald Trump – those that did faced death threats -and the insurrection has been recast by some as a civil protest. 

This spasm of anger and terror was not a singular event.  We had been building toward the insurrection, or something like it, for years.  And instead of a fever that broke, the sickness is continuing. 

People are now waking up to the seriousness of the rift in our nation.  Journalists are taking the possibility of a Civil War more seriously.  Commentators make eloquent pleas to safeguard voting rights.  Appeal to our civility.  Improve our rhetoric.  Address disinformation. 

None of these things is enough, even if they were happening, which they aren’t. 

The reality is that we are slumping toward a recurrence of the insurrection.  No one is sure what the catalyst will be.  But we all sense that the tension is not dissipating as attitudes continue to harden. 

I won’t pretend that there is a measure that can cure us of our ills.  I expect that things will get rough and tumultuous in the days ahead.  But I am confident that a few things would help for real. 

The first is a shift in political incentives away from the extremes.  Right now 10% of Americans effectively elect 83% of representatives due to closed party primaries and safe seats.  If you’re in Congress, you find yourself placating the most hyperpartisan and extreme in your district rather than the general public.  Shifting to non-partisan open primaries and ranked choice voting would reward moderate candidates and improve the incentives of officeholders.  This can happen via ballot initiative in half of the states and via state legislatures in the others. 

Second is to move on from the duopoly.  In a two-sided political system, polarization will inevitably rise.  Today, 42% of each party regards their opponents as mortal enemies; they will thus accept all sorts of failings in their own leaders as better than the alternative.  A record 62% of Americans want to move on from the duopoly.  A genuinely multi-party system will sustainably improve the dynamic.  The shift to open primaries and ranked choice voting would allow new parties to emerge, eventually perhaps leading to multi-member districts. 

Last, those in power should rush to address the problems that are growing more serious around us every day.  The enhanced child tax credit brought millions of kids out of poverty.  Poverty is a solvable problem.  Yet even when poverty is briefly alleviated for millions the solution is taken away.  Our leaders respond to their own interests while people and communities struggle.  In that environment, terrible messages will find a willing audience. 

I had friends nearly lose their lives a year ago today.  January 6th, 2021 was both a horrifying chapter in our country’s history and a sign of things to come.  Our country requires a wholesale political transformation beyond the imagination of most of our leaders.  The question is whether we are willing to put aside the empty appeals and do the work required to disrupt and upgrade our current political system, or will the unthinkable scenes continue.  

Happy New Year’s!

Hello and Happy New Year's! We have a New Year’s Eve livestream coming up that we’d love for you to join us for. To join, you just need to be a founding member of the Forward Party. If you've already donated, you're all set and we'll send you the link tomorrow. If not, donate $1 today to show your support and we'll add you to the invite list!

I confess to not loving New Year’s Eve - you feel like you’re supposed to do something, but it’s often tough to find the right event or party. And that’s in a normal year.

It's been an eventful 2021. We started the Forward Party in early October. Starting something new and big is an act of positivity and optimism. You need people to see the possibility of a better future and a new dynamic.

The best people showed up. THE BEST. I’ve met hundreds of you on the road and the people drawn to Forward are truly special. You are extraordinary.

I liken Forward in 2021 to starting a new company during a recession. It seems tough and adverse. But the strongest firms emerge from difficult times. That’s what it feels like we are building now, a movement comprised of the most kick-ass people around in a time of urgent need.

People are giving up. Our country is descending into polarization and dysfunction. But it’s at times like these that real change becomes possible. Structural change that can set us on a better path.

I’ve been invigorated by the first stage of the Forward Party – thousands of volunteers and supporters raising their hands and saying that we can deliver real change for the American people. It’s wonderful seeing the org take form and develop. We are on the cusp of building something that will change the course of history.

None of it would be possible without you. Thank you.

Millions are waiting to see what we will do. Let’s show them what is still possible in America.

Goodbye 2021 and welcome 2022 – this year will be epic! We have races to win, candidates to elevate, and reforms to successfully champion. I can see as clear as day what we will be celebrating 12 months from now if we work to our potential.

Pumped for the year ahead with you,

- Andrew

Right now is the perfect time to contribute to the Forward Party to fix our broken politics – donate $1 today to let people know that we can do better than this! And Happy New Year!!

Happy Holidays!

Happy Holidays to you and yours!  I hope that you are primed to celebrate among family and friends.  

This has always been a special time for me.  When I was a kid, I would thrill to the first Christmas lights going up on our street.  My parents never went that far, but we always had a tree, stockings and presents to open Christmas morning. 

When I was young I loved toys.  I remember one year lobbying my parents trying to open my presents early.  My Dad was indifferent.  My Mom tried to resist, but she got tired of hearing me complain and relented.  I opened the biggest box.  It was a Star Wars toy, Boba Fett’s starship.  I was happy with the present, but then on Christmas morning I was disappointed that I had already opened my best gift the day before.  From then on, I said that I’d wait until the morning of. 

Evelyn and I now are trying to recreate that sense of celebration and specialness for Christopher and Damian.  We want them to know that they are loved no matter what, and that there is always a place for them to call home and a family that will come together with them with warmth and joy.  

It’s up to us to fill our homes with that sense of belonging.  We can’t control a lot of what is going on outside in the world.  But we can control the way we approach these days, the memories we help create for our families, and the feeling that our loved ones get when they join us or reach out to us.

I happened to notice that Disney+ has a new series based on Boba Fett coming soon.  I may try and get my kids to watch it and tell them about how Dad played with that toy when he was their age.  I’ll tell them how their grandparents always made sure to celebrate this time of year, and how they should appreciate grandma and grandpa.  But more than anything else I just want to give them that feeling that I had as a kid.  I know if they have it, they’ll pass it on.