Back to School

Hello, I hope that your weekend is going well this Presidents Day. I celebrate this holiday every year by putting on a colonial-era George Washington wig.

I was invited to speak at my alma mater, Brown University, last week. It was my first time on campus since I ran for President.

It was a lot of fun. I’ve spoken at over a dozen universities these past several years, but at Brown there was a sense of camaraderie and pride. The students filled the auditorium and dozens were turned away. The energy was tremendous and heartwarming.

I spoke about my college years, when I was a fairly unremarkable undergraduate. I had very little figured out, though I did mention a couple of courses that impacted my thinking like Labor Economics and Ethics and Public Policy. I traced my steps from Providence all the way to the presidential campaign and making the case for democracy reform today. I tried to make my journey relatable and achievable.

I also talked about my friend Dean Phillips – another Brown alum – and his primary campaign in 2024, which I was proud to support. History has proven Dean to be correct. I tried to end on an invigorating note about how the future will be theirs to shape.

Afterwards, I met and took pictures with dozens of students. One young woman asked me, “Was it all worth it?”

I answered without hesitation, “Of course! I’d do it all over again.”

Another student said to me, “Thank you for being here. My friends and I followed your campaign every day when I was in 8th grade.” It has been 5 years since 2020, and that 8th grader is now a college freshman. Several other students told me that they volunteered for my presidential campaign and showed me pictures to prove it. There were a lot of students who wanted me to run again. Several thanked me for helping them feel better about the current moment.

Meeting with the students was uplifting. They were positive and idealistic and looking for a way to make a difference. I have no doubt that they will. They also reminded me of how much I have to be grateful for. Many of them understood the vision I was campaigning on.

We may not get there as quickly as I hoped five years ago, but there are a lot of dedicated and passionate people who want to see that vision come to pass. The college freshmen of today will be out in the world working before we know it. We have a lot of work to do, but the next generation is on its way.

To see what we are doing with Forward in your area, click here. For my interview of Jo Ling Kent of CBS News about DeepSeek and AI on the podcast this week, click here. Have a great long weekend.

Within and Without

Hello, I hope that you and yours are doing well. What can we do to be better at what we do?

I went to a friend’s book launch party a few weeks ago and met Adam Galinsky. Adam is a Columbia business school professor who studies effective leadership. He wrote a book called “Inspire: The Universal Path for Leading Yourself and Others” that came out last week.

I have a few rules for leadership: Try to work on something important that’s bigger than yourself. Compensate people fairly. And care about the people you work with. But Adam is a little more data-driven than that. “I’ve studied what makes leaders effective and it turns out the qualities and attributes are the same across countries and cultures.” Adam joined me for the podcast this week.

So what do leaders do around the world? “There are 3 things that inspiring leaders universally do in different countries. Number one, they’re visionary: that is, they set a vision or goal for others to follow. Number two, they’re exemplars of desired behavior: they act in a way that’s an example for others, often being cool and composed even in the most stressful of situations. Number three, they’re mentors who encourage, empower and elevate others to reach their potential.”

Adam uses copious examples. In one case, there’s a pilot who tells people on a plane with a mechanical failure, “We’re not going down. We are going to Philly.” It keeps everyone calm. She listens to her co-pilot’s advice, lands the plane and comes out to meet with and comfort passengers. On the other hand, there’s a boat captain who doesn’t tell passengers anything as the boat lists and starts sinking. He tries to blame others and deflect responsibility for the mishap, endangering those on the vessel.

Good leadership is infectious. “When I have asked people around the globe to describe the feeling of being inspired, they frequently use words like bright, light, and warmth. Others describe it as a mix of awe, admiration, and wonder. And many recognize it as a wellspring of hope and possibility.”

“The flipside of inspiring leadership is infuriating leadership. It turns out there’s an enduring continuum, and everything falls somewhere between these two extremes.” We’ve all seen and experienced bad leadership. Adam identifies the gatekeeper who seems to delight in using their power in negative ways.

Happily, Adam says that we can actually create more good leaders. “The three dimensions of an inspiring leader are universal because each one fulfills a set of fundamental human needs. Visionary fulfills the human need for meaning and purpose. Exemplar fulfills the human need for protection and passion. Mentor fulfills the human need for support and status.” Adam identifies an ability for people to get better at any of these attributes. “Each of us can learn, nurture and develop the capacity to be better in these respects. There are concrete actions to take and practices to pursue.”

As you know, I constantly have an eye on how we can make the world a better place. But the primary place to start is within ourselves. As Thomas R. Kelly wrote, “We Western people are apt to think our great problems are external, environmental. We are not skilled in the inner life, where the real roots of our problems lie.”

We can’t control what others do, but we can improve what we do. And that, for those in our lives, may be the most important thing.

For Adam’s book on inspiring leadership, click here. For my interview with him, click here. To see what Forward is doing to shift our politics in your state, click here.

The Wobbly Institutions

“There’s too much going on right now – it’s hard to keep track of.”

This is what a friend of mine said to me this week. The most deadly air crash in a generation. Chinese AI coming out at a fraction of the cost. A wave of Executive orders. Federal funds cut off for a day and then restored. Cabinet Secretary nominees undergoing contentious Senate hearings. An offer to 2 million Federal employees to resign. ICE enforcement actions in different cities. There were also a couple of shootings that would have made headlines in other times that barely registered.

One person called the new administration’s approach “Shock and awe.” Another called it, “Flood the zone with shit.”

Also below the radar was the final forum of candidates to chair the DNC. The Party is casting about for leadership and a vision. The proceedings were interrupted by half-a-dozen protests by climate activists. Some are asking, “What do we do to resist the new administration?”

The truth is the time for effective resistance was 13 months ago, when the Democrats were enabling Joe Biden’s disastrous re-election campaign. A competitive primary would have potentially changed the trajectory that led to Trump’s return. The Democrats failed their test and have rendered themselves moot for the next 2 years minimum, quite possibly a good deal longer.

Now, the most important actors are not the minority party, but a handful of Republican Senators who have demonstrated independence and principle in different contexts: Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Bill Cassidy, John Curtis, and, new to the picture, Mitch McConnell who is now in “I can do whatever I want at the age of 82” mode. Also, deficit-minded fiscal conservatives in the House will be key figures in the upcoming budget negotiations.

Going against Trump will be a difficult task for those within the Republican Party though – it’s one reason why the country is crying out for an independent political movement to shore up those who want to make decisions free of party orthodoxy. You can see that in the fate of Dean Phillips, who challenged Joe Biden and was cast out of DC as a result. You can also see that among the Republican Senators who are clearly struggling with some of Trump’s Cabinet picks.

The defunding of government programs by the OMB in the name of vetting ‘woke’ expenditures was particularly troubling, as it impacted everything from Medicaid to Meals on Wheels and cast hundreds of thousands of Americans into confusion and uncertainty, forcing a walk back just a day later. It evinced a real lack of understanding of the real-world impact of these programs and put ideology over any sort of sensible governance.

Also not good – Trump blaming diversity initiatives for the tragic air collision in D.C. That won’t prevent future collisions in a stressed system.

Institutions are wavering, as those being placed in charge of them don’t actually believe in them. Government led by those who don’t believe in government won’t lead to good places.

We are in the era that I feared we would enter 8 years ago when I decided to enter public life: the time of institutional disintegration.

There are many rational things to do in this time. Unplug. Take care of yourself and those around you. Build new things. Solve problems. Improve your environment. Most of the things in our lives are good or bad regardless of the political-industrial landscape.

I thought that I could help us avoid Trump’s re-election in 2020. My biggest contribution in ’24 was backing up Dean Phillips in his challenge to Joe Biden and then urging Joe to step aside after his disastrous debate.

Forward is working on things for ’25, ’26, and ’28. If you want to link up with people in your state, click here. I’m excited for some developments that I believe are around the corner.

But for those who are saddened by some of the developments of this past week, you’ve got company. The honeymoon is already over.

Taking Risks

Hello, I hope all is great on your end.

I recently read Nate Silver’s latest book, “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.“ The book is about people who take risks for a living: gamblers, investors, entrepreneurs. He contrasts these risk-takers with those who work in academia, media and government, typically more steady and stable environments. One of the points that Nate makes is that most people take too little risk in their career, and that most would benefit from being a bit more edgy.

I have agreed with that perspective for years. I left a high-paying corporate job to co-found a dot-com startup in 2000 that totally flopped. So that risk didn’t work out. But I was 25 years old and recovered over the next number of years. I eventually became the CEO of an education company when I was 30 that was acquired 4 years later.

My risk profile only went up at that point; if you’re 34 and have a nest egg, why not do what you thought was right and take big swings? Plus, at that point I was still unmarried and didn’t have a lot of obligations. I started an entrepreneurship organization and, after concluding that massive changes were needed for the economy to work for most people, ran for President. At each stage, I thought I could leave it all out there and still be fine. Entrepreneurs are optimistic by nature.

And things have worked out! Still married.

One thing I’ve grown to realize though is that I’m wired to be unusually accepting of certain risks; a thought that plagued me when I was young was the risk of looking in the mirror and wondering why I didn’t do more or put myself out there. I’ve tended to be motivated by things other than money. That might not be the priority for a lot of other people in different circumstances. Plus, now that I have a family I have a more nuanced perspective.

This week on the podcast I interview Gunjan Banerji, a Wall Street Journal reporter who spent months visiting with people who have developed a gambling problem on cryptocurrencies or options trading. “I would see these groups of men, many of whom have had their marriages or relationships destroyed due to their becoming addicted to these trading apps and lost their savings. Mind you, I’m talking about investing apps, not gambling apps. Investing has this sense that, ‘Oh, this isn’t addictive like gambling,’ but for many it is, and options trading has similar dynamics to sports betting.”

Gunjan details how she became an options trader for a week for her reporting. “It affected my mood. I became fixated on what was happening to my positions. At one point, I had a trade pay off and it seemed to other people I was high I was so elated. Of course, I had lost on other trades.” Gunjan interviewed dozens of men – it’s almost always men – and believes that this problem is going to get a lot worse. “There is now a very thin line between gambling and investing, and it’s getting thinner all of the time. More and more people are falling prey to it.”

I agree – I think we should regulate sports betting more rigorously. And I believe people should be wary of chasing short-term highs by aggressively investing money that they might need for another purpose. It’s always hard to know when to take it off the table.

Do I still think that people should take on a bit more risk in their own lives? Generally, sure. Life is short and we should go for the gusto. We are more resilient than we think. But I’m much more into risks taken with one’s time than with one’s money. I’m more like, “Ask that person if they want to hang out with you!” or “Try something new!” rather than betting the rent. After all, life is off-screen, not on it.

For my conversation with Gunjan Banerji, click here. For Nate’s book, click here. To see what Forward is doing in your state, click here – we are up to big things.

99% Perspiration

We’ve all heard the Thomas Edison quote, “Genius is 1% Inspiration and 99% Perspiration,” with the point being that an idea is nothing without hard work. It also suggests that if someone shows up and works hard, they can build a good life for themselves.

Is it true?

This week on the podcast I interview Adam Chandler, the author of the new book, “99% Perspiration: A New Working History of the American Way of Life.” “This idea is baked into the ethos of what it means to be an American: if you work hard, you’ll get ahead. But by the numbers it’s not as true anymore, and doubts are picking up. For example, a 2023 Gallup poll found that 39 percent of Americans believed they were working hard but failing to get ahead. In 2002 that number was only 23 percent.”

It's an idea that I’ve been grappling with for some time. My parents immigrated to the US and told me and my brother that if we studied, got a good education and worked hard, things would go our way. And it has been true in our cases. My brother is a successful professor; he’s the more studious and academic of the two of us. I’ve certainly lived a version of the American dream via entrepreneurship that is well beyond what my parents had in mind.

But I’m a numbers guy, and the numbers say that it’s gotten shakier and shakier for Americans to get ahead even if they put their head down and do the right thing. “I interviewed a woman for the book who was the first in her family to graduate from college, was working three jobs, and is wondering, ‘what did I do wrong?’ because she’s just treading water. She didn’t do anything wrong. There are more structural problems now that keep her from getting ahead,” Adam observes.

Most of us know the big ones: housing prices are higher and higher. My parents bought a modest house in Schenectady in the early 70s for about $40,000. That same house might cost $300,000 or more today. The cost of college continues to climb; my peers are trying to squirrel away tuition for two or three kids and the sums blow their minds. And of course, just about everyone tries to avoid the healthcare system because of sky-high costs and overgrown bureaucracy.

“The frontier myth of rugged individualism obscures that there was a lot of public support even in settling the West,” Adam says. “We say it was the individual but it was often acts of policy that would make it possible to build a railroad or clear a pass.” Adam’s book is largely about various points in American history and the mythology that arose, often oversimplifying a more complicated reality.

Here's the thing – I think people ought to have a positive attitude about what they can accomplish with hard work. It’s much more productive to think, “Let me go out there and kick butt and hopefully it will take me someplace good” than to say, “It doesn’t matter what I do, I’ll never get there, the deck is stacked against me.” That’s defeatism, which doesn’t lead anywhere.

But I also 100% endorse Adam’s point that there are policies we can undertake that would make hard work more likely to pay off. “Companies investing in their workers helps everyone and creates a lot of value,” Adam says. “And measures like the child tax credit give families more resources and flexibility.” I, of course, believe that AI is going to eat a lot of work for years.

There are indeed many more policies to pursue. If anything, what we should fear is a country where people think that applying oneself or doing the right thing doesn’t pay off. “People are getting more and more frustrated in the U.S. It’s feeding into our politics in unfortunate ways,” Adam writes. He also argues for a somewhat more enlightened culture where our lives and identities don’t revolve around work to the same degree.

I’d love for us to head in a more positive, people-centered direction economically, no matter who makes it happen. We’re not heading there right now. You know what it’s going to take? A whole lot of us working very hard to get there.

For my interview of Adam, click here. For his new book click here. To see what Forward is doing in your state, click here – we’re growing fast, particularly in California.

MLK Day and Trump’s Inauguration

Trump is getting inaugurated for the 2nd time on Martin Luther King’s Birthday.

I had the privilege of visiting Martin Luther King’s birthplace and childhood home with his son several years ago in Atlanta. It was an incredible experience. Dr. King’s book, Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community?, with its call for Universal Basic Income had a profound impact on me. Dr. King dedicated his life to combating three great evils: Racism, Poverty and War.

On the other hand, Trump is coming back to office and many who found him beyond the pale 8 years ago will be in DC to join the celebration and try and get on the administration’s good side this time around.

I’m not someone who regards Trump and his followers as universally malignant. I hope good things happen in the next 4 years under his watch, particularly when it comes to government bloat and waste. There’s a chance the enhanced child tax credit returns and lowers the poverty rate for millions of children. I see Trump’s re-election in large part as a repudiation of a Democratic regime that was overly bureaucratic and had insulated an unpopular, aging Joe Biden from accountability.

The announcement of the return of hostages and a cease-fire in Gaza is an example; there will be unreservedly positive things that unfold under Trump’s rule.

That said, I do fear an unfettered cult of personality that will cater to some of Trump’s lesser impulses. Mass deportations, crony capitalism, Cabinet picks that are more about loyalty than anything else, a continued erosion of institutional norms and a coarsening of the culture that extends well beyond politics. An America where the strong thrive and the weak are sidelined.

Wokeness had gone way too far and had failed to improve the lives of those it claimed to represent. I won’t miss it at all.

But we live in a country that is failing to live up to its promise for more and more. We certainly aren’t approaching the ideals that Dr. King championed and died for. We yet have so much potential that is going unrealized.

Can Trump improve the circumstances of the millions of Americans who voted for him and the millions who didn’t, beyond catering to their feelings and sense of identity? That is the test for the next 4 years. We will all find out the answer soon enough.

The Fires of LA

When it feels like the world is on fire, sometimes it is.

It has been devastating for all of us seeing wildfires consume thousands of homes, businesses and schools in Southern California these past days. The loss of life and memories is incalculable. This may be the most destructive natural disaster in our lifetimes.

It hurts on multiple levels. I have friends who have been burnt out of house and home. I’ve been to that part of the country many, many times and it’s no exaggeration to say it’s one of the most beautiful parts of the United States. In many places you can see the ocean and feel what has drawn people there for generations. Now, those communities are ashes and husks and thousands of families are not sure whether they will ever return.

There’s both a sense of helplessness and frustration that the wildfires could not be better contained. Seeing families in despair that their homes could not be saved is heartbreaking in part because it feels like it could have been different. This is not an earthquake, where you could say, “Well, what could you do?” Instead, it seems that some of this destruction was avoidable and preventable.

America being what it is in 2025, this disaster has become politicized. Climate change certainly played a role, intensifying the vulnerability of the region and the intensity of the winds. Donald Trump is crowing about blue state failure. California politicians are looking to shift blame and responsibility. Gavin Newsom is looking at Karen Bass, who will be an easy target given that she was abroad when the fires intensified.

To be sure, these fires will have profound political implications. I’ve spoken to multiple Californians who are furious at what they see as profound incompetence by a clumsy, bureaucratic government that failed to protect them when it mattered most. There will be a movement in the days to come calling for change and accountability.

But the impact is felt by all of us because of the scale of the destruction and the human toll. One of our cultural centers has partially burnt to the ground, 24 people have died and thousands are dislocated. If the people of Los Angeles aren’t safe from a fire, who can consider their way of life secure? That’s not a question we have been forced to ask ourselves, but it’s now with us more and more. We are all set to become firefighters in one way or another. I wish it were different.

To donate to shelters for the dislocated, you can do so here with the Los Angeles Chapter of the American Red Cross.

Talking Good

Hello, I hope ’25 is off and running for you!

I get asked all of the time about what it was like running for President. Running for President was in many ways a communications challenge. You have a vision you want to present to people. But it’s also competitive in that there are others – lifelong politicians – who want airtime and you have to try to break through.

This week on the podcast I interview Michael Chad Hoeppner, the author of the new book “Don’t Say Um: How to Communicate Effectively to Live a Better Life.” Michael was the expert, then a communications professor at Columbia Business School, my campaign brought in to coach me prior to the 2nd primary debate. You might recognize him as the “Terence” character in The Last Election.

“People think of communication as something you either are good at or you’re not. But it’s something that virtually anyone can get better at if they put in the time and practice in the right way,” Michael observes. “Communication is a physical act and something that responds to training.” Michael was a Broadway performer earlier in his career, which is very physical.

Michael’s approach clicked for me because he homed in on how I was speaking as a performance activity. For example, he identified immediately that I had a tendency to cram too many words per minute into some of my answers. A slower pace would lead to more pauses and emphasis and a stronger delivery. Michael changed the timer in my head so I felt that I didn’t have to rush through a number of drills and exercises.

His book takes the same approach with different aspects of communication, like vocal variety: Pace, Pause, Power, Pitch and Placement. He also writes about optimizing your posture, gestures and nervous energy. My team got used to my reciting “Topeka bodega, topeka bodega” as a warm-up prior to a televised interview. I would sometimes jump up and down or jog in place backstage before a debate to get my blood pumping.

I said to Michael on the trail, “You should write a book.” And now here we are. One thing I love about Michael is he’s totally pragmatic. “The title of the book is a trick; we get negative directions all of the time, like ‘don’t be nervous.’ That stuff doesn’t work. Thought suppression doesn’t work, like ‘don’t think of a pink elephant.’ The question really is how do we develop the muscle memory to do all of the things we want to do in a communications setting without thinking about them. My goal for the book is to have people be aware of their top 1 to 3 communications practices they can improve on and then actually implement them in real life.”

Michael is passionate about helping people communicate better. He’s acutely aware of the era we are in. “With technology getting more and more powerful, it’s more important than ever that we have positive humans who are effective communicators with good intentions.” As he writes in his book, “We need honorable, moral communicators!” I couldn’t agree more, whether it’s advancing in one’s career, running for office or just living a better life expressing your thoughts to those around you.

For my podcast interview with Michael, click here. For his book, including a free chapter, click here. It’s also my birthday today – if you want to help me celebrate do something positive for someone in your life!

A Big Year

Hello, I hope that 2025 is off to a great start for you and yours!

This should be a big year. I turn 50 next week, which I suppose is a natural time to be a little reflective.

Some people express surprise when they hear that I’m turning 50 – I guess the moisturizer works. Apparently I seem much younger? Occasionally an older friend says, “You’re still a baby, welcome to the club!” I guess both can be true.

I’ve been young my whole life. I skipped kindergarten as a kid – I never learned to share – and was the small, young, scrawny kid every year. I was 11 in 7th grade for example. It did not help in sports.

Incidentally, I now think it’s a good idea for boys in particular to start later as they mature a bit more slowly. One of our boys is repeating a grade right now. Also a good idea? Gap years. I don’t think there’s a rush.

But back then, I kind of did. I started a company that flopped when I was 25, sold a company when I was 34, started Venture for America at 36 and started running for President at 43. I was convinced that AI was around the corner that was going to make life even more tenuous for the average American.

I was 45 in 2020, which definitely made me one of the youngest candidates in the field. Politics will make you seem young by comparison.

I’m grateful that I ran when my kids were too young to understand what the heck was going on. They still think of Iowa as a fun, chilly place with a children’s museum that allowed you to actually saw objects in half.

A mentor said to me, “You’re going to be more productive in the next 10 years than you ever were.” His argument was that I now know gajillions of people, I know how things work, I’ve been inside the machine. Not coincidentally, he’s 10 years older than I am. He also said, “A lot of people are looking to you to make sense of what’s happening.”

One thing that has given me a positive attitude about turning 50 is that I’ve tried to maximize my time in terms of making a difference. I haven’t been slacking, you know what I mean? I’ve taken big swings and have had a journey I’m proud of.

Thank you helping to make that so.

My friend is right that I know things now that I didn’t know before. I’d like to take advantage of them.

Can we accomplish big things? Let’s do our best in 2025. We have the time that’s given to us and nothing more. It’s up to us to make the most of it.

Thank you for keeping up with me. If you’d like to help celebrate my birthday, please consider making a donation to Forward – we have some new gear that I’m enjoying. To hear my 2025 predictions on this week’s podcast, click here.

Here’s to thriving in ’25!

Expect More Lawmakers to Go 'Independent' in the Coming Year

Hello, I hope your holidays are going well. I wrote an op-ed in Newsweek to ring in the new year, with some bold predictions for 2025. I hope you enjoy it!

Expect More Lawmakers to Go 'Independent' in the Coming Year

Happy New Year! 2024 is now in the rearview mirror, and we have a big new year to look forward to. What can we expect in '25? Here are my top predictions for what we're likely to see:

For starters, the Republicans will struggle to pass legislation due to their historically narrow margin in the House. We saw this in December, as Elon Musk went against the budget plan that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson had painstakingly hammered out before Trump even took office. Extending Trump's tax cuts will become a major intra-party food fight with a few deficit hawks balking at anything that raises the deficit, which will be just about everything. Pity Mike Johnson; unifying the different factions of the GOP will be next to impossible given his lack of leverage. He might not last the year as Speaker, even as the Republicans have no one better situated to lead the caucus.

You can also expect at least one member of Congress or the Senate to declare him or herself an Independent, mirroring a trend. In this last Congress, two Senators—Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema—left the Democratic Party and became Independents. Expect the same to happen on the Republican side this time. It's not just a trend among lawmakers: 50 percent of voters now identify as Independents, according to Gallup, and Jim Duggan, the mayor of Detroit, has already declared that he's going to run for governor of Michigan as an Independent. Being an Independent will become more of a common attribute in 2025, as officials look to brand themselves as not beholden to one party or another.

Expect at least one Democrat to declare their presidential candidacy for 2028 in 2025, three years before the primary. Nature abhors a vacuum, and the Democratic Party is in the wilderness looking for an identity, and electing a DNC Chair that most Americans have never heard of isn't going to change that. Multiple heavyweights are going to declare in Fall of 2026, so why not get a jump on them and have the Left-leaning media all to yourself? They'll have you on cable news shows, as they don't have much else to talk about for the next two years. I declared early in the 2020 cycle because I knew I would need time to build up recognition. It had its plusses and minuses, but this cycle, the plusses outweigh the downsides for multiple candidates. Expect someone to take the plunge early, and for election season to be every season.

Next, I expect there will tragically be more assassination attempts on both CEOs and political figures. Luigi Mangione's murder of Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealth, unfortunately drew sympathetic reactions in many quarters. Trump of course survived one assassination attempt, perhaps two. In disintegrating and polarized societies, targeted violence becomes normalized. Unfortunately, the United States fits that description. One common pattern in decaying democracies are attacks on judicial figures. 2025 is likely to represent a high-water mark in political violence committed by the misguided, deranged and criminal.

I expect there to be multiple major strikes, including by teachers, airline workers, healthcare workers, and postal workers. 2024 had notable labor stoppages, including dockworkers and a recently resolved Actors and Writers Guild strike in Hollywood. A number of major contracts are up in 2025, and the pressure being brought to bear by automation is increasing. The Republican administration will be unlikely to intervene. At least one of these strikes will drag on for weeks, causing meaningful disruption.

Also, expect inflation to stay alive and well. The Fed signaled in December that it would not be cutting rates as much as many hoped to guard against inflation. Trump himself recently admitted "it's hard to make prices go down after they go up," and many companies have realized that they can pass costs along to consumers. Tariffs are inflationary, and so are deportations. Prices for many consumer goods will go up if tariffs are established on imports from certain countries. Housing prices will stay high too, as mortgage rates stay elevated compared to 2021 levels.

Finally, expect the movement to reduce smartphone use among teens to grow and spread to numerous states that implement phone-free schools. Jonathan Haidt's book The Anxious Generation has dominated the bestseller list for months, and parents have figured out that smartphones are not their kids' friends. Young people also are realizing that clicking on other people's exaggerated lifestyles doesn't lead to a positive frame of mind. There will be an impulse for many Americans to live simpler lives, and more people both old and young will opt out of social media networks.

Of course, the most important thing for each of us in the New Year will be how we approach opportunities and setbacks in our own lives. Try to look out for yourself and those around you. The institutional challenges are going to keep on picking up steam. If you want something to happen, you might have to do it yourself.

Here's to thriving in '25!